· This is Wang Hao's 1553rd original article on Fortune
· The full text is 1500 words long and about 4 minutes to read
A few days ago, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress made a decision authorizing the State Council to carry out pilot work on real estate tax reform in some areas. This is another major progress since the real estate tax pilot in Chongqing, Shanghai in 2011, the real estate tax has gradually approached, what impact and changes will it bring to people?
1
Real estate tax pilot
On October 23, at the 31st session of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People's Congress, an important decision was made:
Authorize the State Council to carry out pilot work on real estate tax reform in some areas.
For several years, there have been calls for property taxes.
Today, the real estate tax is a big step closer to being officially introduced.
This reform pilot work also echoes the common prosperity and the third distribution mentioned not long ago.
The taxation targets in this pilot area do not include rural homesteads owned by law and the dwellings on them.
At the same time, there is also a general concern about what changes may be brought about and what impact it will have on people after the start of the real estate tax reform.
2
Whether it will affect the room rate
The question that many people are very concerned about is whether the real estate tax reform will lead to a decline in house prices.
In this regard, many professionals believe that perhaps in the short term, because of the psychology and practice of some multi-property holders who are eager to get rid of their hands, the price of second-hand houses in some cities will fluctuate, which will indirectly affect the first-hand housing market, but in the long run, there will be no sharp decline in house prices.
After all, the introduction of real estate taxes will not change the basic situation of the supply and demand relationship in the property market, and local governments also need to safeguard the huge benefits brought by land finance.
A look at how many cities have successively issued restriction orders to reduce the fall, and we can understand the determination and means of the government in this regard.
Therefore, according to logical analysis, the expansion of the pilot of real estate tax will not cause substantial changes in house prices.
3
Possible pilot scope
Some experts believe that it is expected that the first batch of pilot cities may be preferentially selected from the first- and second-tier core cities, especially in the first half of this year, some cities with higher market heat and large house price increases will become pilot targets.
For example, the Yangtze River Delta region, the Greater Bay Area, and the core second-tier cities in the central and western regions are likely to become pilot cities for real estate tax.
As of September this year, the top 10 cities in China in terms of second-hand housing prices are Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Sanya, Nanjing, Tianjin and Zhuhai.
Among them, in addition to Beijing is unlikely to be a pilot city, Shenzhen has high housing prices and the economy is relatively independent of the real estate industry, while Hangzhou is the highest proportion of land transfer fees and high housing prices, and these two cities are most likely to become pilots.
Since Guangzhou and Shenzhen are in the same province, the probability is low, and other cities have a good chance of becoming pilots.
4
Who will be affected
First, having multiple properties, as well as a home but oversized size, are the people most likely to be affected by the real estate tax pilot.
Some people who just need it, who only own one house and the area is not large, will most likely not be affected.
In addition, since there is no mention of "rent-sale equality" in the decision document, some people renting in pilot cities may be affected.
5
Possible thresholds
Some experts have analyzed and considered from multiple perspectives such as the possible implementation effect of real estate tax and public order and good customs:
It is estimated that the number of units exempted from property tax should be two, starting with the third suite.
This is because some couples in the family own a house before marriage, and if the tax is levied from the second set, it may cause large-scale fake divorces and other phenomena that affect public order and good customs.
The per capita exempt area should be about 90 square meters.
6
Whether the standards of the pilot projects in various places are uniform
Since there have been two pilot cities for real estate tax in Shanghai and Chongqing, it is possible to extract some patterns from the experience of these two cities.
First of all, the basic object of taxation is not "individual" but "family", which is quite uniform.
Secondly, in terms of specific taxed properties, the two pilot cities are slightly different.
——Shanghai is aimed at residents newly purchased two or more sets of housing, non-resident families newly purchased commercial housing;
——Chongqing is for the stock of single-family commercial housing, newly purchased single-family commercial housing, newly purchased high-end housing, three no personnel newly purchased the second set of housing.
This new round of pilots, most likely, will still face the family as the basic tax unit.
7
epilogue
As the era of large-scale real estate development gradually comes to an end, the kind of land finance of the past will become more and more difficult to continue.
In layman's terms, there is no way to get money by selling land.
At this time, it is necessary to plan in advance and transform from land finance to real estate tax finance as soon as possible.
For the decision document of the real estate tax reform pilot, it also put forward the practice of "doing the pilot first, and then legislating when the time is ripe", which can be said to be very windy to cross the river by feeling the stones.
Time is not waiting for anyone, first take two steps and then say.
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