Per reporter: Ding Zhouyang Bi Yuanyuan Per editor: Dong Xingsheng
In late September, Lin Huanjie, president of the China Theme Park Research Institute, received a souvenir of the "groundbreaking ceremony" of the Legoland Resort in Shenzhen, with a classic brick shape, red and yellow color, and a "huge version" of LEGO that can be used by the whole family to travel and play.
On the occasion of the fifth anniversary of Shanghai Disneyland, the addition of a new water park in Guangzhou Chimelong, and the opening of Universal Studios Beijing, Legoland is also going to "settle" in Shenzhen. The four first-tier cities will all have a theme park that can be used as a "city business card", which will also mean that the pattern of national theme parks will be rewritten again. For many domestic theme parks that are not strong enough in competition, they will directly face the "robbery" of giants.
Beijing Happy Valley, which fights with Universal Studios Beijing in the same city, bears the brunt of it. Recently, on social media such as Weibo and Xiaohongshu, a number of tourists took photos and videos of Beijing Happy Valley, which "often has to queue up". However, every reporter also noticed that there were also tourists who heard the news to go to Beijing Happy Valley and sighed: "I thought that there would be fewer people going to the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the result was still crowded." ”
"In the short term, Universal Studios Beijing will have an impact on Beijing Happy Valley, which has changed from a national park to a regional park." Lin Huanjie told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, "The number of tourists who came to Beijing from other cities across the country to play Happy Valley will decrease, and the decline on weekdays is more obvious than that of holidays." ”
International giants have come one after another, how will they stir up the national theme park pattern? How to avoid the phenomenon of selling houses for the purpose of building a theme park as a land enclosure? Lin Huanjie was interviewed by the reporter of the Daily Economic News (hereinafter referred to as "NBD").
Lin Huanjie Image source: Courtesy of the interviewee
<h2>Opening tickets are sold out and the marketing ingredient is empty</h2>
NBD: Why did Universal Studios Beijing take so long to prepare? What is the level of its total investment in the industry?
Lin Huanjie: It has been 20 years since China and the United States began to brew and discuss intentions to cooperate. Since the project was approved in 2013, the progress has been relatively smooth. The investment in the first phase of the project is more than 6 billion US dollars, which is an international first-class standard theme park, equipment and facilities are imported, if there is no such a large investment, it is indeed impossible to do.
Universal Studios Beijing Image source: Photo by reporter Li Shaoting (data map)
NBD: Some analysts say that Universal Studios Beijing can reach 15 million to 30 million visitors a year, and its annual revenue is estimated to be 15 billion to 30 billion yuan. What are your estimates?
Lin Huanjie: I think it is too optimistic. I think Universal Studios Beijing can reach 10 million passengers a year, with an annual revenue of about 8 billion yuan. The late passenger flow will not always maintain the popularity of the opening, the theme park has a "honeymoon period", the domestic park will last for half a year to a year, the international park may last for half a year to a year and a half, and then tend to be stable. If new projects are added after a year or two, there will be a small climax in the passenger flow, which is generally a curved fluctuation.
NBD: Universal Studios Beijing is hard to find during the trial operation, and the official opening tickets during the Mid-Autumn Festival are also snatched up, what do you think of this phenomenon?
Lin Huanjie: I think there is a marketing component in this, which is a means of warming up, just like the sale of Apple's mobile phones, creating a hot market situation. From the merchant's point of view, this approach is understandable. But from the perspective of tourists, I don't think it's necessary to regret that you didn't grab the opening tickets. Throughout the world's theme parks, the opening of the early stage is the run-in stage, its sense of experience and comfort are not the best, and after the project runs for a period of time, the operation of the theme park will be more mature, and everyone will play to feel better.
NBD: Who will be more popular in the future, Shanghai Disneyland and Universal Studios Beijing?
Lin Huanjie: In the long run, I think the two can go hand in hand. Disneyland is mainly anime-based, and the project is based on tourists of all ages; Universal Studios is a live entertainment with a movie theme as the carrier and an online movie scene in the form of experience, which forms a differentiation and just complements each other. But in the short term, everyone will inevitably choose one or the other, for example, during the National Day holiday, families who choose to go to Universal Studios will not go to Disneyland.
Shanghai Disneyland Image source: Per infographic
Overall, the two are on par, and Disneyland will have a few percent higher units than Universal Studios. And we compared the data from Tokyo Disney and Universal Studios Osaka, Disney and Universal Orlando, Anderson Disney and Universal Orlando, and Disney surpassed Universal Studios Orlando, and the same will be true in China.
<h2>The practice of selling houses in the name of theme parks has ruined the entire industry</h2>
NBD: According to public data, there are 2,000 to 3,000 theme parks in China, and only 10% of them are profitable.
Lin Huanjie: This data is not the latest, at that time, the amusement facilities and small parks near the community were counted as theme parks. According to the latest statistics of our research institute, in 2019, there were 339 theme parks in China, of which 25% were loss-making, 22% were flat, and 53% were profitable, and the overall situation was not so miserable.
However, the theme park investment is large, the risk is large, and the recovery is slow, which is the characteristic of the industry, just like building a dock, the corresponding supporting facilities, transportation systems, and services must keep up, and only then will there be ships to dock and slowly recover costs. Unlike real estate, you can sell a house with a drawing. Therefore, some real estate companies have previously encircled the land at a very low price in the name of building more than ten theme parks. As a result, only the surrounding houses were sold, and more than a dozen theme parks were not landed. This practice has devastated the entire industry.
My point is that if you really do a good job of the theme park, then it is okay to use the profits of the surrounding real estate to feed the park or win the corresponding government subsidies, because the theme park involves the construction investment of the surrounding public facilities after all. But the premise must be to do a good job of the theme park, otherwise it is the inversion of the horse.
Universal Studios Beijing Minions Scenic Area Image source: Photo by reporter Li Shaoting (data map)
NBD: What are the development characteristics of theme parks in China in recent decades?
Lin Huanjie: First of all, the overall level of play is uneven, which reflects the standardization of the development of the theme park industry, the level of development is uneven, and the development level also needs to be improved as a whole. Secondly, today's theme parks pay more and more attention to experiential and functional, and many differentiated theme parks have sprung up.
Third, the scale of development has seen a phased peak, and 34 of the 50 theme parks included in the evaluation in the past three decades have gathered in 2010 to 2019. Fourth, the regional distribution is more east and less west, and the expansion rate also shows a leading trend in the east. Finally, from the perspective of overall competitiveness, the competitiveness of theme parks in the eastern region is significantly stronger than that in the western region, of which the Yangtze River Delta, pearl river delta and Bohai Rim region are even more important. In the future, as the theme park market in the eastern region becomes more mature and the industrial chain continues to improve, China's theme park industry is expected to achieve high-quality renewal and iteration under the leadership of the eastern region.
Guangzhou Chimelong Image source: Guangzhou Chimelong official Weibo
NBD: After Disneyland and Universal Studios have settled in China, what impact will it have on China's theme park industry?
Lin Huanjie: After the introduction of world-class theme parks, some domestic theme parks with poor location, inadequate design, no IP and poor management will soon be eliminated. In addition, international theme parks will affect the surrounding theme parks, such as Happy Valley in Shanghai and Beijing, and the number of visitors will be reduced in stages.
But in the long run, it has a promoting effect on the entire industry. After Disneyland settled in Shanghai, the quality of new theme parks across the country has improved since then. At present, there are more international theme park giants are also planning to enter China, so we must face up to the reality, and in the future, everyone will compete with the world-class theme parks.
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