2021-10-21Cui Yan of Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd. conducted a study on Tuopu Group and released a research report "Tier0.5 with Excellent Performance", which gave a buy rating to Tuopu Group, believing that its target price was 58.45 yuan, the current stock price was 47.26 yuan, and the expected increase was 23.68%.
Top Group (601689)
Event overview
The company released the third quarter report of 2021: 2021Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 7.82 billion yuan, an increase of 81.1% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother of 750 million yuan, an increase of 94.4% year-on-year, and net profit of 730 million yuan deducted from non-attributable mother, an increase of 103.5% year-on-year. Among them, the revenue of 2021Q3 was 2.91 billion yuan, an increase of 65.4% year-on-year, an increase of 16.7% month-on-month; the net profit attributable to the mother was 290 million yuan, an increase of 71.3% year-on-year, an increase of 37.4% month-on-month, and the net profit of non-attributable to the mother was 290 million yuan, an increase of 77.4% year-on-year, and an increase of 39.5% month-on-month.
Analytical decisions:
Q3 performance increased year-on-year Tesla contributed a significant increase
2021Q3 revenue reached 2.91 billion yuan, +65.4% year-on-year, +16.7% month-on-month, we judge that the year-on-year growth against the trend is mainly due to Tesla's significant contribution to the increase, is expected from Tesla's supporting revenue of more than 1.3 billion yuan, accounting for more than 45%. Deduct non-attributable net profit of 290 million yuan, +77.4% year-on-year, +39.5% month-on-month, mainly benefiting from the growth of revenue scale, it is expected that with tesla production climbing superimposed Geely, GM and other customers sales rebound, shock reduction and noise reduction, lightweight chassis system, thermal management system, intelligent driving system and other full bloom, it is expected that the performance of 2021Q4 is expected to continue to increase.
Gross profit margin increased from the previous quarter to the increase in operating leverage
In 2021Q3, the company's gross profit margin reached 21.1%, +1.3pct sequentially, and the increase in gross profit margin against the trend mainly benefited from the increase in raw material price adjustment mechanisms such as price increases to customers and material compensation coordinated with OEMs. In terms of expenses, the sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio and financial expense ratio in 2021Q3 reached 1.1%, 2.7%, 4.2% and 0.3% respectively, and the operating leverage effect gradually appeared.
The two-dimensional qi drive sword refers to the global auto parts TOP
Customer +: Strategically bind Tesla and new car-making forces to enter the global supply system. The company has accompanied the growth of GM and Geely, and is currently strategically bound to Tesla to open a new round of growth, and has entered the global supply system of Ford, FCA, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Honda, Toyota and so on. In line with the transformation of electric intelligence in the industry, the company actively cooperates with new forces such as RIVIAN, Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal to explore the Tier0.5 level cooperation model and provide customers with synchronous research and development and supply services for the whole product line.
Product +: "2+3" industrial strategy, electric intelligence comprehensive layout. While maintaining the domestic leading position in the two traditional businesses of automotive NVH shock absorption system and vehicle acoustic set, the forward-looking layout of automotive intelligent driving system, thermal management system and lightweight chassis system three major core businesses, of which: 1) lightweight high growth: the company's aluminum alloy lightweight chassis technology is leading in China, after the acquisition of Fortuna to form a perfect layout of aluminum alloy + high-strength steel, has now entered the supply chain of Tesla, Geely, BYD, BAIC, Great Wall, Weilai, WM and so on. Aluminum alloy integrated vacuum casting chassis has been recognized by customers and began to supply in batches, aluminum alloy casting welded chassis has been recognized by CUSTOMERS SUCH AS FORD, RIVIAN and has begun to prepare for batch supply. 2) Intelligent driving system waiting to be developed: electronic vacuum pump EVP orders increase rapidly, is expected to gradually contribute significantly; intelligent brake system IBS has now iterated to the fourth generation of double redundancy scheme for L4 or above automatic driving, carrying road tests on BYD, Geely Automobile and other models, and also cooperating with famous foreign enterprises to develop and promote electric logistics vehicles; intelligent steering systems are being promoted to a number of OEMs including Volkswagen, electric adjustment steering pipe posts, electric tailgates, etc. Smart cockpit products such as seat massage systems have been released and received official orders from customers. 3) New energy vehicle thermal management system can be expected in the future: the company has successfully developed heat pump assemblies, electronic expansion valves, electronic water valves, electronic water pumps, gas-liquid separators and other products, is increasing market development and R & D investment, the goal is to become a new energy vehicle thermal management system overall solution provider.
Investment advice
The company is the tesla industry chain high performance elastic target and Geely industry chain most beneficial target, with the industry's leading customer development and product expansion capabilities, is expected to rise under the electric intelligent transformation to become an independent parts leader. In view of the company's performance repair and lightweighting with Key Customers such as Tesla and Geely, intelligent driving system and thermal management system have growth potential, taking into account the impact of core shortage and raw material price increases, adjust the profit forecast: it is expected that the revenue in 2021-2023 will be adjusted from 117.6/159.5/20.74 billion yuan to 113.1/159.5/20.74 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the mother will be adjusted from 12.2/18.5/23.3 billion yuan to 11.7/18.4/23.2 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS is 1.06/1.67/2.10 yuan, corresponding to pe36/23/18 times the closing price of 47.26 yuan on October 21, 2021. Considering the company's future high growth, the company will be given 35 times PE in 2022, and the target price will be adjusted from 58.80 yuan to 58.45 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk Warning
Tesla sales fell short of expectations; Geely's sales picked up less than expected; competition intensified; raw material costs rose.