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Article source: Babbitt
Author: Wang Jiajian
Finally, Litecoin's annual drama is about to be staged.
According to the latest data from Litecoinblockhalf (https://www.litecoinblockhalf.com/), based on the current blocking rate, the halving of Litecoin is around 6:21 p.m. on August 5, 2019.
This means that the revenue from Litecoin mining will be directly reduced by half, and a batch of Litecoin miners will bid farewell to the stage for the time being, unless the price of Litecoin rises gratifyingly. As for how the coin price goes, it is actually very difficult to judge.
The mining machine washing is imminent, and the precomputing force will be reduced by 20%-30%
Litecoin is derived from Bitcoin, and according to the preset, it also has a mining output halved. Its halving cycle is 840,000 blocks, and according to the mechanism of one block every 2.5 minutes, its halving cycle is also about 4 years.
In August 2015, Litecoin halved for the first time. On August 5, 2019 (block height 244220) at around 6:21 p.m., Litecoin will usher in a second halving.
After the halving, Litecoin's mining output per block will change from 25 to 12.5. Its annual inflation rate will fall from 8.7% to 4.26%. By the way, Litecoin production has reached 75%.
What does this mean for mining? Look at a picture.
▲The data comes from the coin printing mining pool
It can be seen that the daily net profit of the current core A6+ mining machine is the highest, about 33.24 yuan. The core A4 has reached the shutdown coin price. The Ant L3+ series stepped into the ghost gate with one foot, and the daily net profit was about 5.25 yuan.
We assume that the price of Litecoin remains unchanged, and exclude factors such as the optimization of the mining machine, the difficulty adjustment after the reduction of the computing power, and calculate what will happen after the halving at the cost of 0.25 yuan per kilowatt hour of electricity during the flood period.
The daily net income of the core A6+ was 10.3 yuan, and the X6 of the Jinbei mining machine was 7.3 yuan. Ant miner L5 is 6.8 yuan. The electricity bill of the above three mining machines is less than 30%. The mining machine in the back is more miserable. In particular, the daily net income of Ant L3++ is -0.455 yuan, and the daily net income of Ant L3+ is -0.315 yuan. Judging from the static data, the Ant Miner L3 series will be completely destroyed.
Yuchi (F2Pool) founder Shenyu introduced that the current market mainstream is L3+ overclocking frequency reduction version, after the halving will eliminate a lot of L3+, it is estimated that the overall elimination of the hash rate will account for 20%-30% of the entire network.
After calculation, Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Litecoin Mining Pool BTC.TOP, believes that after the halving, the mechanical and electrical costs of the Litecoin Mine will be stopped at more than 0.26 yuan. These shut-down machines either migrate to places with low electricity bills or sell them outright.
However, once the mining machine is turned off, the computing power of the whole network decreases, and after the difficulty adjustment, the unit income will rise again, Jiang Zhuoer said, the income will increase by 20%, and the mining machine with an electricity fee of 0.3 yuan can be put on the job again. Shenyu calls this competition "a game between stock miners." ”
Shenyu also believes that miners should calculate costs well and pay attention to prices to do a good job of cashing out and preserving value. After about 3 days of halving production, the mining difficulty adjustment is over, and the costs and benefits of miners will have a clear result. Miners can clearly see whether L3+ can still be mined. During this period, some miners should choose a wait-and-see state and wait until the results are clear before making a decision.
From the above table, it can also be seen that the new mining machine has high computing power, low proportion of electricity bills, strong competitiveness, and of course, the price of the machine is naturally high. A replacement between old and new miners is taking place.
Feng Chong of the Coin Printing Industry Research Institute told Babbitt that before the arrival of the flood period, the large number of people who bought Litecoin mining machines for 200-300 yuan (old mining machines) have recovered their costs and obtained good profits. "For mining, relatively advanced mining machines allow miners to maintain cash flow during a bear market, but for investment decisions and behavior, it is a large part of luck, because almost no one can predict the price of the coin."
减半=To The Moon？
Several Yang lines changed three views, and the "spicy strips and eights" sounded the coin circle. On January 1, 2019, the price of Litecoin was $30, after which Litecoin began to rise wildly, as high as $138, and then pulled back with the broader market, and the current price is at $94. If you do the math, Litecoin has risen about 3 times as high this year, and there are still 2 times the increase. Ranked 5th in the digital currency market capitalization list.
Litecoin has only experienced a block reward halving once in its history, after the Litecoin price began to rise 3 months before the halving, and after the block reward halved, the price began to fall.
This time, will history repeat itself?
Previously, Babbitt had written that the following views were popular in the market.
First, the production cut will change the market supply of Litecoin, assuming that the demand growth rate remains unchanged, the market hype and FOM sentiment will also increase demand, and once the supply growth rate declines, the price will theoretically rise. Second, the positives have been cashed in advance, and the positives are all bearish. Third, cryptocurrencies usher in the calf, and the future can be expected under the expectation of halving. Fourth, how Litecoin goes still depends on the "face" of Bitcoin, and the correlation of digital currencies is getting stronger and stronger.
Huang Jin, CEO of Coin Bull Bull, told Babbitt not to make predictions about the short-term market, there are many factors affecting the short-term market.
Litecoin halved, how does the hash rate change? Is it a waterfall or To The Moon on price? These are difficult to predict, the market is out, this time next year may be able to see clearly, this time is not a repeat of history.
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