Observing | Kishida's new official took office to reorganize the LDP top brass, how much "Abe element" is there?

The Surging News reporter Wang Xinran

On September 29, Fumio Kishida, former chairman of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and Political Investigation Committee, successfully succeeded the current Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and was elected as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Since the presidential election, the names of two other politicians have been discussed in the Japanese media no less than Kishida Fumio, and what kind of "role" they played in this election and what kind of impact they will bring in the future has also attracted much attention.

These are former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who resigned last year due to illness, and Taro Aso, the former deputy prime minister and finance minister, the former key figure in the Hosoda faction, the largest faction of the LDP, who is called the "king-maker" by the media, and the chairman of the "Aso faction", the second largest faction in the LDP.

The "factional operation" within Japan's Liberal Democratic Party has always been the focus of external attention, and the current LDP presidential election is no exception. Although the election situation once presented a situation of "big chaos" in which several faction valves failed to unify the candidates, from the final results, the influence of the faction valves does not seem to have weakened.

"Under the influence of Abe and Aso's 'elder politics,' Kishida's unique colors have become the focus." On September 29, after Kishida won the position of president of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Mainichi Shimbun commented in its report.

In the LDP's high-level personnel appointment announced on October 1, Kishida's "unique color" does not seem to be very distinct, and Kishida, who promised to reuse young lawmakers, eventually succumbed to the interests of the factional valves, which caused questions in the Japanese media and criticism from opposition parties.

However, in the rules of the political game peculiar to Japan, everything seems to have foreshadowed.

Behind the election

In the recent LDP presidential election "chaos", compared with the hard-hitting confrontation between Kishida Fumio and the "second" current minister of administrative reform, Kono Taro, it is worth mentioning that Abe's political skills of "encircling Wei and saving Zhao" are more worth mentioning.

Since Kono Taro announced his candidacy, he has been very vocal both within the Liberal Democratic Party and among the Japanese people. He also once won the support of former Liberal Democratic Party Secretary Shigeru Ishiba and Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and the three formed the "Koishi River" alliance to build momentum for the election campaign.

Under this momentum, Kono won the support of many young lawmakers and stalwart members, and the support rate within the party rushed to 46%, which was twice that of Kishida. The Kono camp, which has no foundation in the big faction, is also hopeful about the "possible victory", and the Daily News reported that the "blueprint" depicted by the camp is to gather the support of more than 60% of the legislators.

But after the first round of voting was announced on September 29, many analysts were surprised that the "king of popularity" would lose to Kishida in the first round. The results of the first round of voting showed that Kono had only 86 councillors, not only far below Kishida, but even less than another candidate, Takaichi Sanae.

Results of the first round of voting

"There were indeed 100 MPs who said they would vote..." After the vote, people in the camp told the Daily News.

Behind the high popularity, the efforts of the "Koishikawa" alliance to challenge Japanese factional politics seem to be slightly naïve. Judging from the voting results, some members of the parliament seem to have secretly "turned their backs".

"Kono's strategy for running for president is to win 60 to 70% of the party members' votes, backed by the popularity of the people and the high level of public opinion, and to win 60% to 70% of the party members' party membership; the target group of the parliamentary votes is to attract young parliamentarians who have been elected less than three times by the LDP." Zhang Boyu, deputy director of the Political Research Office of the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that of the 86 parliamentary votes, kono's aso faction accounted for about 22, about 20 non-factions under the influence of Suga Yoshihide, about 10 votes totaling from the Ishibashi faction and the Ishihara faction, more than 10 votes from the second-order faction, more than 10 votes from the Takeshita faction and the Nishida faction, and the remaining factions could not be determined, and the "Koishikawa" faction was "Koishikawa" The young parliamentarians whose camps had high hopes for less than three times did not all vote for Kono.

"The main reason is that this part of the vote has been separated by the 'big man of the faction.'" Zhang Boyu analyzed that for example, there are 33 young parliamentarians in the Hosoda faction who have been elected less than three times, all of whom were elected under Abe's popularity during Abe's long reign. When they received calls from Abe asking them to support Takashi, the young councillors simply couldn't hold back Abe's pressure.

According to the general analysis of public opinion before the election, if he cannot directly win the first round of voting, Kono, who enters the second round of parliamentarian voting, has almost no chance of winning. In order to stop Kono, Takashi Sanae became Abe's powerful pawn.

Takashi is an important figure in male-dominated Japanese politics and can also be called a representative of Japanese female politicians. Over the course of his years in politics, far-right speeches have allowed Takashi to reap many conservative votes.

On September 4, shortly after Suga announced that he would not seek re-election, the previously silent Shinzo Abe made a high-profile statement of support for Takashi, and for most of the following half a month, he gave him "military-like" support, drawing together many staunch supporters and making him a candidate to be regarded as a candidate to be regarded as a candidate.

Takashi's entry into the game was seen by analysts as a move by Abe to elect Kishida Fumio to power to ensure that some of the votes of the members of the council were collected, and that some of Kono's party votes could be dispersed in the first round of voting.

"Many people don't understand why Abe said during his reign that the 'rightful person' to succeed him as prime minister is Kishida, but in this election, he did not directly elect Kishida but supported Takashi's candidacy." Zhang Boyu analyzed that if kono and Kishida two candidates "hard to hit the nail on the head", the low degree of public opinion support Kishida has insufficient advantages, and it is difficult to fight against kono, which is highly popular.

"In order to prevent Kono from winning the first round of voting directly, Abe officially announced his support for Takaichi Sanae on September 4, and she was widely regarded as a 'bubble candidate' as an important variable affecting the current presidential election." Zhang Boyu pointed out, "With Abe's support, Takashi has divided the party membership votes of the core conservative layer of the LDP, which directly affects the Kono camp's struggle for party members' party membership votes." The more candidates who run for president, the more dispersed the votes, and the more difficult it is to win or lose in the first round of voting..."

However, Abe's support for Takashi is not all-out. Relevant personnel of the Takashi camp told the Mainichi Shimbun that if Takashi, which has a strong conservative color, enters the second round, it may leave a suspense that "the prudent Kishida faction of councilors chose Kono". Therefore, to ensure that Kono does not win, Takashi "does not enter the second round" is also a prerequisite. More insiders in Nagatacho (where the Japanese Diet and the prime minister's official residence are located) revealed to Japanese media that Abe began to stop the call for "support for Takashi" on Friday, and her votes may have begun to flow to Kishida from then on...

On the eve of the LDP's presidential election, Kishida held talks with Takashi to "meet" Kono, and the two sides finalized the intention of cooperation - "fighting together". This seemingly "sudden" news ripped off the last veil of Abe's platoon behind the election.

Behind the appointment

On the morning of September 30, the day after he became president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida went to a hotel in Tokyo and met with Aso. According to the West Japan Shimbun, about three hours after meeting with Aso, Kishida summoned Aso's Ganliaki to the Liberal Democratic Party General Affairs Office, and since then, rumors of "Secretary General Uchiding" have also spread in Nagata Town.

Zhang Boyu told The Paper that the LDP's personnel arrangements for "rewarding merits and deeds" were actually basically determined before the presidential election was voted. Candidates who want to be supported by a certain faction or a senior politician with significant influence or political resources also need to meet the needs of the other side in personnel arrangements. Of course, sometimes personnel arrangement agreements can also become "empty checks".

However, Kishida once raised the slogan of the LDP leadership "one term of office for 1 term and one year, and only three terms for re-election" during the presidential campaign, and after his election, he also expressed his willingness to adopt stalwarts and young legislators, whether he would follow the "tradition of rewarding merit and deeds" had made many people have expectations, and his several speeches in this month also seemed to let people see his "desire for change".

Nevertheless, judging from the party's personnel announced on October 1, three of the party's four campaigns — the secretary general, the chairman of the political investigation committee, and the chairman of the election countermeasure committee — were served by Akira Kanri, Sanae Takashi, and Toshiaki Endo, respectively, and the power of the faction and the big man was still stable and strong.

The first is GanLiming, an ally of Abe and Aso, who are known in the party as the "Iron Triangle". A relevant person from the Aso faction told the West Japan Shimbun that Gan Liming's position as secretary general can be very good at maintaining the ties between Abe, Aso, and Kishida, and stabilizing the party's base. Similarly, GanLiming, as the successor of the second-order Toshihiro, who had previously had great power, can also be seen as a symbol of Kishida's "reward" for Abe and Aso.

The second is Takaichi Sanae, who served as the head of the political investigation, and her relationship with Abe was fully demonstrated in this election campaign, and the appointment also has Abe's help behind it. Finally, toshiaki Endo, who has been around Kishida since he ran for president last year, and who also served as Olympic minister in Abe's cabinet.

The "central nervous system" of the party has been occupied by the largest and second largest factions, but the only "variable" is the president of the general affairs bureau, Tatsuo Fukuda, whose appearance has been described by analysts as the "only feature."

Tatsuo Fukuda is the son of former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and a political figure of great stature among young parliamentarians. He was a key figure in the LDP's "Party Style Renewal Meeting" seeking reforms, and as early as the election period, he called for the elimination of "the impression that decision-making is swayed by the intentions of the elders and is not transparent enough."

"But there are many senior party members in the general affairs meeting who 'love to express their opinions fiercely.'" The "Jiji News Agency" report also pointed out that in this situation, Fukuda's ability to show how much coordination ability and leadership ability can be displayed in the future has also been questioned.

Whether it is "pushed" by the party bosses during the election or the intertwined interests before the election, Kishida seems to allow the "big guys behind the scenes" to gradually move to the front of the stage under the appointment of important positions. And the promises he made during the campaign, how much can be achieved or how much the big guy can make him achieve" are still impossible to assert.

"It's hard not to say that Kishida is a puppet of Abe and Aso." In the face of this personnel layout, a stalwart lawmaker said in an interview with Japanese media. "It is better for Abe to rely on the regime so much than to do it directly." Jun Anzumi, a member of the Diet of The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, commented.

Nagata-cho Empress

"Nagatacho's common sense is what the world considers 'extraordinary knowledge', and in the struggle for power, the old system has always been exposed." Fast forward to September 29, after Kishida won the position of president of the Liberal Democratic Party, said Ichiro Matsui, a representative of the Japan Restoration Association.

In the "one strong system" formed by the LDP's long-term rule, not only the long-term control of the National Assembly has been derived, but also the unbreakable tradition of "factional politics" derived from the party and the supremacy of the party leaders.

Although Kishida's victory has a certain relationship with his personal ability and political qualifications, it can also be seen from the distribution of the final votes and the subsequent personnel appointments that the influence of the "big guy" is still very strong.

The hopes and expectations of young parliamentarians who had been burning since Kono joined the war were almost extinguished with the results of this election campaign. Zhang Boyu pointed out that judging from the defeat speech issued by Koizumi after the presidential election, young parliamentarians have realized their own shortcomings and realized that they still need to work the ground. Challenges that rely on popularity and public opinion support rather than strength are also easily swayed by public opinion, and the forces attracted by their popularity will also turn with changes in public opinion.

"After this battle, young parliamentarians should learn more lessons." The generational change of power within the LDP will take a long time. Zhang Boyu told the surging news that the presidential election also perfectly verified Abe's "divine power", and the election results indicate that "Abe's domination" will not end in the short term, or even last for a long time.

As for whether Kishida will remain a "puppet" under "Abe's control" or be able to play his own personal role, political commentator Tetsuo Suzuki pointed out in an interview with the Mainichi Shimbun that if Kishida intends to change, it will be the biggest focus in future personnel appointments to be unaffected by Abe. Otherwise, the appointment of close legislators to Abe and Aso will only make the people feel that the power structure of the "second Abe regime" is still re-emerging.

As the new president, Kishida, who will even sit in the new prime minister's position on October 4, will face pressure not only from factions and party leaders in the future as the country's leading figure, but also how to effectively prevent the epidemic, how to revitalize the economy, how to solve relations with neighboring countries and many other domestic and foreign issues. In it, he will also be questioned by opposition parties and tried by the people, which will also determine how long the future "Kishida Cabinet" can last and how long Kishida can go on the path of prime minister.

Editor-in-Charge: Li Yiqing

Proofreader: Liu Wei