On December 5, 2023, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation released an article on its official website, making it clear that it will comprehensively benchmark SpaceX in the future, and claiming that China Aerospace Group has a significant gap from SpaceX rocket company in terms of development concept, scientific research model, production technology and quality and efficiency.
In its self-report, China's aerospace industry evaluated itself as big but not strong, big but not excellent, and frankly said that the current overall development level has lagged behind SpaceX rocket company.
Acknowledging the gap is a good thing, but what is the level of SpaceX, which has triggered deep reflection by the China Aerospace Group, and how far is it from SpaceX?
When Zhang Changwu, founder and CEO of Blue Arrow Aerospace, talked about this matter, he publicly said that China is at least 10 years behind SpaceX. Some voices on the Internet believe that the gap between the two sides is at least 30 years, what is the merit of SpaceX worth learning?
The shining pearl of the world's aerospace industry
When it comes to Musk, the first thing that comes to mind is Tesla, the leader of the world's new energy vehicles. But Tesla is only the tip of the iceberg of Musk's business empire, and his life is full of miracles, such as he created PayPal to earn 165 million, and then used the first pot of gold in his life to create SpaceX, a great company that subverted the global space industry.
SpaceX was founded by NASA, when Musk was inspired by NASA and determined to forge a new route for human space exploration. He decided to develop a private space market to further the progress of space exploration through scientific and technological innovation.
At the beginning of its establishment, the fledgling SpaceX obviously underestimated the high risks and complexities in the space field, the shortage of funds made SpaceX's operation unsustainable, and the shortage of technology made SpaceX's core project, the Falcon rocket, the first three launches ended in failure.
Three crushing failures pushed SpaceX to the point where its fate hung by a thread, and in 2008 Musk pinned all his money and hopes on the last Falcon 9. At the last moment, the last rocket miraculously successfully lifted off, and after the Falcon 9 was launched, it landed smoothly in the designated position. Since then, SpaceX, which has turned around, has officially been on the right track, and has been improving its rocket recycling technology day by day.
After its initial success, SpaceX has continued to innovate and develop new rocket technologies and recyclable technologies. It also develops large rockets such as Falcon Heavy and Starship to meet future exploration in deep space.
Commercial space in 2023 is a seriously underestimated track, and this year, AI large models and SpaceX starship launches have become the focus of the international community. From the perspective of actual results, the AI model is still in the stage of improvement and development, and has not changed the existing world pattern, but the SpaceX Starship has been invincible in the field of commercial aerospace and even the world's aerospace.
In the whole of 2023, a total of 221 rocket launches will be completed around the world, including 116 in the United States, and SpaceX alone will take 98 of them, accounting for 44.34% of the world's total, which is obviously an unprecedented miracle for a social business company.
SpaceX seems to have firmly established its dominance in the global rocket launch market, and the huge expansion has allowed SpaceX to finally start making a profit for the first time in 2023. In the first quarter of last year, SpaceX generated $1.5 billion in revenue, including a total profit of $55 million, and the company's valuation soared to $175 billion.
SpaceX's profitability confirms the success of its business logic, and in the 2023 rocket launch mission, except for the two experimental Starship launches, the remaining 96 launches of the SpaceX Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy reusable launch vehicles were successful, with a cumulative launch mass of 1,195 tons, accounting for 80% of the world's total. The number of satellites launched is as high as 2,514, of which 1,948 are Starlink, and the rest are microsatellites from all over the world.
In addition to satellite launches, SpaceX also helped ESA launch the Euclid Space Telescope last year and NASA launched the Euchar probe. It has achieved 3 manned space flights and 3 cargo launches, and has helped the militaries of the United States, Germany and South Korea launch a number of military satellites.
The reason why SpaceX is so popular in the global market is due to its low launch price. The launch price of its Falcon 9 is $67 million, and the launch price of Falcon Heavy is $97 million. In comparison, the launch unit price of the Vulcan rocket in the United States is as high as 110 million US dollars, and the launch price of the Cosmos 5 is as high as more than 150 million US dollars.
Behind the low launch price, SpaceX's superb rocket recovery technology is inseparable.
The two pinnacles of the world's space industry
Thanks to its outstanding launch capabilities, SpaceX is currently working hard to build a low-orbit satellite Internet constellation - Starlink. SpaceX is ready to put 42,000 satellites into low orbit by 2027, but the total capacity of the Earth's low orbit satellites is limited, according to the International Telecommunication Union, the ground capacity is about 60,000.
In 2020, China submitted an application to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to launch 13,000 low-orbit satellites. The alliance stipulates that the frequency and orbit of satellites on the earth are on a first-come, first-served basis in the order of declaration, but if the number of launches is not completed within the specified time, it will be deemed to have waived the right to use the orbit.
In 2023, SpaceX will launch 1,948 satellites, and the cumulative number of launches has exceeded 6,000, accounting for more than 50% of the total number of low-orbit satellites in the world.
SpaceX's Starship is currently the world's most powerful launch vehicle, with a total height of 121 meters and a total height of 121 meters, and its super-heavy thrusters are equipped with 33 Raptor engines, generating more than 7,000 tons of thrust at most. The maximum carrying capacity is 150 tonnes in the case of repeated use and up to 250 tonnes in the case of single use.
At present, China's most powerful launch vehicle is the Long March 5, but its low-earth orbit carrying capacity is only 25 tons. And China's aerospace rocket engine is also far from SpaceX's Raptor engine, although the Long March 5 is already Asia's first and the world's leading launch vehicle, but there is still a lot of gap from the Falcon series.
SpaceX's rocket development path is divided into three steps, the first step is to develop a disposable small rocket, the representative work is Falcon 1. The second step is the development of a reusable medium and large rocket, represented as the Falcon 9. The third step is to develop a large launch vehicle system, and the representative work is the starship, which can be used repeatedly while ensuring excellent carrying capacity.
At present, commercial rocket companies in the United States and even around the world are following the development path of SpaceX. The mainland's commercial rockets have taken the first step and moved towards the second step, Tianbing Technology's Tianlong-3 is scheduled to complete its first flight in July this year, and Blue Arrow Aerospace's Suzaku 3 is also scheduled to make its first flight next year.
Although the mainland has just entered the second step and SpaceX has already completed the third step, China is still expected to catch up in the next ten years as long as it catches up.
In 2023, China completed a total of 67 space launches, accounting for 30% of the world's total, setting a new historical record. China's space technology is a rare rival in any country in the world, we are involved in launch vehicles, satellites, space stations, manned spaceflight, lunar and Mars exploration, and have a complete space system, but compared with the world's leading SpaceX, we still need to keep a clear eye and look directly at the gap.
What do we need to learn from SpaceX?
The first thing to learn is the market strategy of SpaceX, as a representative of the world's private spaceflight, vividly demonstrates the huge potential of the space market. We should learn with an open mind, relax market access, provide more support and measures for private enterprises and innovative teams, and attract people from all walks of life to participate in the development of the motherland's space industry.
The second is to learn from SpaceX's development philosophy. SpaceX's advancement is not only limited to technology and cost, but also lies in innovative thinking and mechanism. As a pioneer of commercial aerospace, SpaceX's core concept is to reduce costs and reuse, and has been deeply engaged in low cost and repeatability for many years, which should also become the direction of China's aerospace catch-up development in the future.
If China wants to become a space power in 2045, it needs to humbly learn from SpaceX in R&D and innovation, development concepts, and technical links, and learn from each other's strengths. Make use of the advantages of its own industrial base to help the motherland's aerospace enter a new level.