The top ten gold stocks that institutions are unanimously optimistic about on Thursday

Jin Jiang Hotels, the largest hotel group in China and the second largest hotel group in the world, has achieved leapfrog growth through mergers and acquisitions of hotel groups such as Louvre, Vienna and Plateno in France, and has built a high moat with scale advantages and brand advantages. During the epidemic period, the company's store expansion speed accelerated, continued to exert efforts in the high-end hotel market, is expected to achieve a simultaneous increase in volume and price, with the continuous improvement of profitability after the landing of reform measures, waiting for the reversal of the epidemic to usher in a strong release of performance.

Investment essentials

Hotel group leader, merger and acquisition of high-quality assets to achieve leapfrog development Jin Jiang Hotel is a veteran state-owned enterprise, actually controlled by the Shanghai Municipal State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the company actively participates in the market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprises, in 2014, the introduction of external capital Hony investment to help the company mixed reform, assisted the company to complete the merger and acquisition of Well-known hotel groups such as the Louvre Hotel, Vienna Hotel, Plateno Hotel in France, and achieved leapfrog growth in mergers and acquisitions. As of 2021Q3, the company has opened 10,200 hotels, accounting for 20% of the market share in the domestic hotel chain industry, ranking first in China.

Hotel business as the core, two-way development at home and abroad, franchise model to enhance profit stability The company's main business is service-oriented hotel business, accounting for about 98% of operating income. After the acquisition of The French Louvre, the company officially entered the overseas hotel market, accounting for about 19% of the overseas business revenue in 2020, and the internationalization process is ahead of other hotel groups in China. The company's hotel business model is divided into direct mode and franchise model, the company mainly to join the model to rapidly expand stores, franchise stores in the four-year compound growth rate of 15.4%, as of 2021Q3 the company's franchised hotels accounted for 91%. In 2020, compared with the gross profit margin of the direct business decreased by 37pct, the gross profit margin of the franchise business decreased by only 4pct, and the profit stability is expected to increase with the increase in the proportion of franchised hotels.

China optimizes the organizational structure, "one center and three platforms" to improve innovation and management efficiency In order to avoid the impact of mergers and acquisitions on the brand, the company has adopted the "sixteen-character" policy to carry out gradual reform since 2017, and the reform results have gradually landed. Jin Jiang Hotel China was set up on the front end to break down the barriers between subsidiaries and reorganize the organizational structure; the back end set up "one center and three platforms", the innovation center GIC as the company's strongest brain to empower the hotel product upgrade, the global Internet sharing platform WeHotel opened up the group membership system, the number of members in June 2021 has reached 186 million, and the procurement platform GPP and the financial sharing platform FSSC help the company's business process automation. With the deepening of the reform, the sub-groups have steadily increased in the number of stores opened and net profit margins.

First-mover advantage under the leading industry, scale, brand strong advantage to strengthen the moat high-quality property resources is the key to competition in the hotel industry, the company grasps the first-mover advantage, in the budget hotel and high-end hotel market share of the top ten brands, the mid-range brand occupies four seats, the market share of 39.3%, the economy hotel occupies two seats, the market share of 11.8%, the scale advantage is significant. In the mergers and acquisitions and innovation, the company has more than 40 hotel brands, covering the track of all price points from economic to high-end hotels, and continues to develop high-end hotel brands, and its profitability is expected to be further improved.

The epidemic has accelerated the clearance of the industry, and the chaining of low-tier cities and the proportion of high-end hotels have a wide space for the domestic hotel industry. In terms of quantity, the level of hotel chaining in low-tier cities is low, the chaining rate of low-tier cities in 2020 is only 24.3%, far lower than the global average of 41.9%, the sinking market space is vast, under the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, independent hotels in 2020 fell by 15.3% year-on-year, and hotel chains increased by 9% against the trend. The company's five-year compound growth rate of opening stores in the sinking market has reached 15.4%, and the concentration of leaders is expected to accelerate.

In terms of structure, the hotel distribution structure roughly matches the domestic population income structure, the current number of domestic mid-range hotel rooms accounted for about 16%, according to the "14th Five-Year Plan", by 2035 the middle-income group significantly expanded, the proportion of high-end hotel brands is expected to continue to increase, as of 2021Q3, the company's high-end hotels accounted for 50.9%, is expected to further improve with the growth of the industry.

Volume and price rise, profitability is good, after the epidemic is expected to meet the performance of the strong release of the company in early 2020 proposed to open 15,000 stores within three years of the goal, the speed of store expansion accelerated; under the support of the company's asset-light franchise strategy and high-end strategy, the proportion of future franchises and high-end hotels is expected to further increase, driving the company's RevPAR promotion; at the same time, the company's reform results brought about by the landing of the management efficiency improvement is gradually released, and the company is expected to usher in a strong rebound in performance under multiple benefits.

Earnings forecasts and valuations

We have selected BTG Hotels and SSAW Boutique Hotels as comparable companies. The average static PE for comparable companies in 2021 is 84x. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to be 240 million yuan, 1.25 billion yuan and 2.02 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.25, 1.30 and 2.10 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 226x, 43x and 27x, respectively. Considering that the company's market share in the domestic market is the first, and the industry clearance during the epidemic period will help the improvement of the leading market share, assuming that the company can steadily complete the store opening target and gradually recover with the demand side, the hotel operation situation in 2021-2023 will recover to the level of 80%/90%/100% before the epidemic, combined with the improvement of the company's hotel structure and the improvement of profitability under cost reduction and efficiency, we will give the company 33 times PE in 2023, corresponding to a target price of 69.30 yuan / share, discounted to 2022 The corresponding annual target price is 64.6 yuan / share. First coverage, giving an "overweight" rating.

Risk Warning

The global epidemic has repeatedly recovered, and the recovery of industry demand has been less than expected; competition in the hotel industry has intensified; hotel expansion has not exceeded expectations; and franchised stores have managed risks.

Oriental Yuhong (002271): Revenue and net profit continue to increase Affordable housing and BIPV are expected to bring new increments

Category: Company Institution: BOCI Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Chen Haowu Date: 2022-01-20

The company released the 2021 performance express, in 2021, the company's revenue was 31.89 billion yuan, an increase of 46.8%; the net profit attributable to the mother was 4.19 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5%; and the net profit of non-attributable to the mother was 3.89 billion yuan, an increase of 25.7%. Under the background of the severe operating environment in 2021, the company's performance still maintains a relatively high-speed growth, highlighting the leading strength.

Points to support the rating

The net profit of revenue continued to increase, highlighting the strength of leading companies: the company's revenue in 2021 was 31.89 billion yuan, an increase of 46.8%, exceeding the 2021 revenue target; the net profit attributable to the mother was 4.19 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5%.

Q4 Revenue was RMB9.21 billion, up 36.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent was RMB1.51 billion, up 20.1%. Under the severe background of tightening policies in the real estate industry in 2021, tight capital chains of housing enterprises, and sharp increases in raw material prices, the company can still exceed the performance target, highlighting the strong strength of leading companies.

Integration company + category expansion has achieved remarkable results: In 2021, the company will establish integrated companies in many provinces and cities, and fully sink channels to further enhance the national market share. The main demand for the location of the integrated company comes from the non-real estate sector, and the company's non-housing business continues to develop. In addition, the company's category expansion has also achieved obvious results, and the revenue of non-waterproof business represented by architectural coatings has continued to increase.

Affordable housing and BIPV are expected to bring new increments: the company's TPO waterproofing materials have a high market share, rich construction experience, and obvious advantages in BIPV waterproofing. In 2021, the company will increase cooperation with photovoltaic companies and continue to promote the development of BIPV business; affordable housing is the key development direction during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, which is expected to drive demand in the real estate chain, and the company will continue to benefit as a leading enterprise.

Valuation

Considering the continuous release of the company's production capacity and the better performance of the non-waterproofing business, we slightly adjusted the company's performance expectations. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue will be 318.9, 407.1 and 52.00 billion yuan, respectively, the net profit attributable to the mother will be 38.9, 54.9 and 7.52 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 1.52, 2.18 and 2.98 yuan, maintaining the company's buy rating.

The main risks faced by the rating

Raw material prices have risen sharply, downstream industry demand is less than expected, and accounts receivable turnover is difficult.

WuXi AppTec (603259): Performance exceeded expectations

Category: Company Institution: Cinda Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Zhou Ping Date: 2022-01-20

Event: The company issued a pre-increase announcement for 2021 results. In 2021, it is expected to achieve revenue of 22.82-22.90 billion yuan (+38.0-38.5% year-on-year), net profit attributable to the mother of 4.97-5.03 billion yuan (year-on-year + 68.0-70.0%), non-net profit attributable to the mother of 4.01-4.05 billion yuan (+68.0-70.0% year-on-year), net investment income of about 1.66 billion yuan during the reporting period, and fair value loss of H-share convertible bond derivatives of about 1.00 billion yuan.

Quarterly results grew steadily and continued to grow quarter-on-quarter. According to the announcement, 2021Q4 achieved revenue of 6.30-6.38 billion yuan (+33.4-35.2% year-on-year), maintaining positive growth from the previous quarter, with a net profit attributable to the mother of 1.41-1.47 billion yuan (+138.4-148.4% year-on-year), and a net profit of 900-950 million yuan (+23.2-29.7% year-on-year).

The performance of each business segment is eye-catching, and the company's healthy development is promoted in synergy. In 2021, 732 new molecules were added to the small molecule CDMO section, with a total of 42 commercial projects (Q4+5), 49 phase III clinical trials (Q4+2), and 39 clinical phase II -Q4+10 and 2 clinical phase III clinical trials. There are 53 preclinical +I (Q4+8), 8 clinical phase II (Q4+2), and 11 clinical phase III programs in the ATU section. The DDSU section declared a total of 26 INDs (H2+10) and 23 CTAs (H2+11). The clinical trial business has 1 IND, 3 clinical phase III (+2), 14 clinical phase II, and 73 clinical phase I (+1) projects. The company's orders are sufficient, the demand is strong, and the scale effect is further reflected with the company's continuous optimization of operating efficiency and capacity utilization.

The integrated and global layout drives steady development, and the market share continues to increase. On January 10, 2022, the company disclosed at the J.P Morgan Healthcare Conference that the company's drug discovery business accounted for 54% of the Chinese market, preclinical + clinical CRO business had an 11% market share in the Chinese market, small molecule CDMO business had a market share of 23%, and CGT CDMO business had a global market share of 6.7%, ranking third in the world. The company is oriented by innovation and research and development, adheres to the global layout of "integration, end-to-end", has strong comprehensive competitiveness, and drives long-term and steady development of performance.

Profit forecast: Based on the company's good performance and texture, we expect the company's operating income to be 22.863, 337.06 and 44.952 billion yuan in 2021-2023, an increase of 38.3%, 47.4% and 33.4% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the mother is 49.85, 73.72 and 9.465 billion yuan, an increase of 68.4%, 47.9% and 28.4% year-on-year, corresponding to 70/47/37 times PE in 2021-2023, respectively.

Risk factors: the risk of declining R&D investment and outsourcing demand in the pharmaceutical industry, the risk of internationalization not meeting expectations, the risk of repeated global epidemics, the risk of competition, the risk of policy, etc.

Sichuan Luqiao (600039): Performance in line with expectations The new energy industry has built the second pole of growth

Category: Company Institution: Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Xiaoyong / Tao Xinyuan Date: 2022-01-20

event:

On January 18, 2022, the company released the 2021 annual performance pre-increase announcement, and it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 5.032 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of about 66.34% year-on-year.

Comments:

Performance growth was strong and Q4 performance was high. In 2021, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 5.032 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the mother of 4.869 billion yuan after deducting non-deductions. Among them, the net profit attributable to the mother exceeded Wind's consensus expectation of 4.703 billion yuan. Among them, in a single quarter, the company's Q4 is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 1.562 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 63.7%. The order settlement in the fourth quarter was good, and as of Q3, the company's net profit margin attributable to the mother was 6.67% year-on-year, an increase of 2.01pct, the management level was continuously improved, and the results of cost reduction and efficiency increase were remarkable. It is expected that the net profit margin attributable to the mother will still perform better for the full year of 2021.

Infrastructure project orders are full, escorting revenue. The company has increased its market development and operation capabilities by increasing its high-quality construction projects. According to the main operating data announced by the company, the company's cumulative winning bid for infrastructure projects in 2021 totaled 91.322 billion yuan, an increase of 155% year-on-year; the cumulative winning housing construction project was 8.832 billion yuan, an increase of 214% year-on-year; the total amount of total winning projects was 100.173 billion yuan, an increase of 153% year-on-year, about 1.6 times the operating income in 2020. With hundreds of billions of orders in hand, the competitiveness of the project has been significantly enhanced, and the main business income is expected to continue to grow in the future.

The new energy field continues to be laid out, and employee motivation shows confidence. The company has established joint ventures with Chuaneng Power, BYD and Hefeng to carry out the development of phosphate ore and lithium iron phosphate projects. And it is planned to introduce energy investment group and BYD as war investment, with infrastructure as the core layout, supplemented by the "1+3" industrial layout of energy, mineral resources and transportation services. At the same time, actively motivate employees, 2022-2024 the company's non-attributable net profit targets are 7 billion / 8 billion / 9 billion, respectively, 2022-2024 operating income is not less than 100 billion / 110 billion / 120 billion. Hundreds of billions of revenue is worth looking forward to.

The first coverage, giving the company a buy rating, with a target price of 14.2 yuan. It is expected that the company will achieve revenue of 793/1009/1178 billion yuan in 2021-2023, an increase of 29.88%/27.19%/16.74% year-on-year; it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the mother of 50/68/84 billion yuan, an increase of 66.34%/34.87% 23.41% year-on-year; EPS is 1.05/1.42/1.75 yuan, corresponding to PE of 11.43/8.47/6.87 times.

Risk Warning: Infrastructure investment is less than expected, and accounts receivable recovery is less than expected.

Tianci Materials (002709): The leading position of electrolyte integration is stable, and the increase in new categories of products is obvious

Category: Company Institution: Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Zeng Duohong/ Ruan Qiaoyan / Yue Siyao Date: 2022-01-20

The company expects net profit attributable to the mother in 2021Q4 to be 546-746 million yuan, down 3-29% month-on-month, slightly below market expectations.

The company expects the net profit attributable to the mother for the whole year of 2021 to be 2.1-2.3 billion yuan, an increase of 294.09% -331.62% year-on-year, of which the net profit attributable to the mother in 2021Q4 is 546-746 million yuan, an increase of 3668% -5048% year-on-year, down 3-29% month-on-month, slightly lower than market expectations. In 2021, the net profit of non-attributable to the mother was 2.059-2.259 billion yuan, an increase of 289.72% -327.57% year-on-year, of which the non-attributable net profit of 2021Q4 was 5.49-749 million yuan, -26-1% month-on-month.

Electrolyte 21Q4 shipments increased month-on-month, and shipments in 22 years are expected to double continuously year-on-year. In terms of shipments, we expect the company to ship 51,000-52,000 tons in 2021Q4, an increase of 35% + month-on-month, and we expect to ship nearly 150,000 tons for the whole year of 2021, doubling year-on-year. In terms of profitability, the price of 21Q4 hexafluorine rose all the way to 500,000 / ton +, we expect the profit per ton of electrolyte to fall by 20% month-on-month to about 14,000 / ton, and the electrolyte business contributed about 700 million yuan of profit, a slight increase from the previous month, and it is expected that the profit per ton of 22Q1 will recover. Downstream demand in 2022 is strong, we expect that the shortage of hexafluoride will be maintained until the middle of 2022, we expect the company to ship 300,000-350,000 tons, more than double year-on-year, electrolyte long single smooth hexafluorine cyclicality, profitability is expected to be maintained.

The integrated layout of hexafluorine strengthens the leading position and increases the production capacity planning of LIFSI and various additives. The company has built three bases in Ningde, Guangzhou, Jiujiang 150,000 tons of electrolyte production capacity, after the production capacity is completed we expect to reach 1.4 million tons +. In addition, the company accelerated the layout of LIFSI production capacity, the company's existing new lithium salt 6000 tons production capacity took the lead in mass production, mass production progress and scale of the industry first. In addition, the company also has VC, lithium difluorophosphate, DTD and other new additive production capacity will be gradually released in 22-23 years, strengthening the company's integrated competitiveness, thickening profits, and effectively hedging the downward price cycle of hexafluorine.

The traditional daily chemicals grew steadily, and iron phosphate contributed part of the profit, which increased in 22 years. The company's previous iron phosphate business is in the pioneering period caused by some losses, the company currently has iron phosphate production capacity of 30,000 tons, and Ningde times, Yu Neng, Guoxuan, BYD and other enterprises began to cooperate, production capacity smoothly released, we expect Q4 iron phosphate business to contribute part of the profits, the company plans to build 300,000 tons of iron phosphate production capacity, we expect 22 years the company iron phosphate is expected to ship 100,000 tons + + , with the scale, the profit per ton will be significantly improved, is expected to reach 3,000 yuan / ton +. Carbomer prices have fallen back to normal levels, and we expect Carbomer and the traditional daily chemical business to contribute about 60 million yuan in Q4 21, a slight increase from the same level month-on-month. For the whole year, Carbom is expected to contribute 100 million yuan in profits, and traditional daily chemicals are expected to contribute 100 million yuan, totaling 200 million yuan in profits. The company added 60,000 tons of daily chemical new material projects to support the steady growth of daily chemical business.

Profit Forecast and Investment Advice: As the downstream boom continues to exceed expectations, we adjusted the company's net profit attributable to the mother for 2021-2023 to 22.02/46.01/5.500 billion yuan (originally expected 24.25/44.59/5.405 billion yuan), an increase of 313%/109%/20% year-on-year, corresponding to PE of 46/22/19X, giving 35 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a target price of 169 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk warning: Electric vehicle sales are less than expected, policies are not as expected, and competition is intensifying

Hongyuan Electronics (603267): The main supplier of domestic military ceramic capacitors The future performance of expanding production capacity can be expected

Category: Company Institution: Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Su Lizan/Qian Jiaxing Date: 2022-01-20

Event: On January 12, 2022, Aviation Industry Group held the 2022 work conference in Beijing.

Aviation Industry Group has set a performance target for the new year, and the company will fully benefit. On January 12, the Aviation Industry Group held a 2022 work conference in Beijing, and set the assessment target for 2022 as follows: net profit of 16.83 billion yuan, total profit of 21.99 billion yuan, EVA10.35 billion yuan, an increase of 8%, 6% and 23.7% respectively, indicating that the group is full of confidence in the stable and high-speed growth of the aviation industry, and the company, as an important supplier of domestic military electronic components, will fully benefit.

The main supplier of domestic military ceramic capacitors, product categories + production capacity continue to improve. The company is the main supplier of domestic military ceramic capacitors, in line with the national informatization, digitalization and intelligent development trend, relying on the headquarters, focusing on the layout of Beijing, Suzhou, Chengdu three industrial bases, increase the development of new special porcelain dielectric capacitors in the Beijing production base, accelerate the suzhou production base core product porcelain dielectric capacitors from materials to products comprehensive serialization, localization, industrialization construction progress, accelerate the layout and construction of new product lines in Chengdu industrial base. In the first half of 2021, the company independently developed high-power RF microwave multilayer porcelain dielectric capacitors, AC filters, filter components and other products, further enriching the company's product categories, of which high-power RF microwave multilayer ceramic dielectric capacitors and multi-model customized filters have been supplied in small quantities.

Downstream customer demand is strong, and the agency business has grown significantly. The company's main products are a variety of electronic components, including ceramic capacitors, electrolytic capacitors, thin film capacitors, supercapacitors, chip resistors, varistors, thermistors, sensors, inductive transformers, filters, circuit breakers, relays, etc., mainly for the industrial and consumer civil markets. At the same time, the company expanded the agency brand and product categories, and further strengthened cooperation with core customers, the main customers are BOE, Jinlang Technology, Beijing Sanhexing, Beijing Dahao and China Xidian, the downstream demand is strong, in the first half of 2021, the agency business achieved operating income of 492 million yuan, an increase of 54.73% year-on-year.

Implement the equity incentive plan and be full of confidence in the future sustained and rapid growth. In June 2021, the company implemented the stock option incentive plan, and the actual grant of stock options to the incentive recipients totaled 928,000 shares, accounting for about 0.40% of the company's total share capital, and the exercise conditions for the company-level performance appraisal requirements are:

Based on 2020 revenue, the revenue growth rate in 2021-2023 is not less than 30%/69%/120%, or based on 2020 net profit, the net profit growth rate in 2021-2023 is not less than 35%/76%/128%, respectively, which highlights the company's confidence in the sustained and rapid growth of future performance.

Profit Forecast and Investment Rating: Based on the company's self-production and agency business development prospects, we expect the net profit attributable to the mother in 2021-2023 to be 8.74/12.41/1.622 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 3.76 yuan, 5.34 yuan and 6.98 yuan, corresponding to PE of 44/31/24 times, respectively, covering for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.

Risk Warning: 1) Downstream demand and order fluctuations, 2) the company's profitability is less than expected; 3) market systemic risk.