Per reporter: Li Keyu Zhang Huaishui Zhang Rui Per intern reporter: Li Mingming
Some parts of the three northeastern provinces have reached an orange warning due to a serious lack of electricity, some cities can not even operate normally on the traffic lights of the main roads, and the candles that are usually not popular have suddenly become a hot commodity, and the manufacturer said that the order volume increased by 10 times...
An enterprise in Liaoning province was suddenly shut down due to power rationing, which led to the suspension of the exhaust system, and a blast furnace gas poisoning accident occurred, and a total of 23 people were sent to the hospital for treatment...
For more than a week, "power rationing" has suddenly become the hottest keyword in the media. Following the previous intensive power curtailment orders issued by Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces, requiring key energy-consuming enterprises to stop production, Guangdong also issued an initiative to call on office buildings on 3 floors and below to stop using elevators, followed by a post titled "Shanghai Planned Power Outage Notice from September 27 to October 3" on Monday, which spread rapidly through social networks, indicating that the scope of this round of power cuts may continue to expand.
On September 27, the State Grid Corporation of China clearly stated that it would avoid the occurrence of power curtailment to the greatest extent possible and resolutely adhere to the bottom line of people's livelihood, development and safety.
In fact, in order to cope with this round of power cuts, some places have begun to take active measures. For example, on the evening of September 28, Inner Mongolia issued a guaranteed electricity price reform policy, and Hunan also introduced measures to improve the coal-fired electricity price adjustment mechanism.
At present, it is neither the hot summer weather of the peak summer, nor the winter when hydropower generation is at a low point during the dry period, why is there suddenly such a serious large-scale power ration? How much impact have been the price increase of upstream commodities such as coal and the recent pressure of "double control of energy consumption" in various provinces in this round of power curtailment? In the upcoming winter peak of electricity consumption, what will be the situation of China's power supply?
In response to this series of problems, the daily economic news reporter launched an investigation. The survey found that not only the developed manufacturing provinces in the southeast coast, which are large electricity users, have suffered power curtailment, but even the exporting provinces that have surplus electricity in the past have begun to take measures such as staggering peak electricity consumption. Under the impact of this round of power rationing, almost all employees of enterprises that rent and sell generators are invested in the surge in business, "every day overtime maintenance, delivery, installation and commissioning of diesel generator sets, many colleagues have stayed up for three or four consecutive nights"; on the other hand, the original green and environmentally friendly new energy industry, but because the raw material production of photovoltaic modules is high energy consumption, the price of upstream products in its industrial chain has surged by about 3 times, resulting in huge cost pressure on enterprises.
Cause analysis: Northeast coal production capacity shrinking coastal provinces energy consumption rose too fast "bright red light"
After in-depth analysis of the phenomenon of power rationing in many places, the "Daily Economic News" reporter found that on the surface, although many provinces have seen the phenomenon of enterprise suspension of production and production due to power rationing, in fact, there are actually many differences in the causes of power curtailment in various places.
For example, in many places in the northeast region where the power ration has recently occurred, the tight energy supply has become the most important factor affecting the local power supply.
For example, the Liaoning Provincial Power Security Work Conference held on September 26 revealed that in the first eight months of this year, the province's electricity load hit a record high. Since July, liaoning has experienced a power shortage due to a sharp decline in power generation capacity. Since September 10, Liaoning's net external electricity inflow has dropped sharply, and the pressure on power supply has further increased, which has been unable to meet the electricity demand of all enterprises.
Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, analyzed in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that due to long-term losses in coal production in the northeast region, a large number of local coal mines have been shut down one after another, and the capacity of local coal and other energy production has greatly shrunk compared with the past.
In addition, the northeast region is in the process of energy structure transformation, and the structure dominated by coal-fired power plants is changing to being dominated by gas-fired power plants. But this process is not complete, many gas-fired power plants have not yet been completed and put into operation, so once the coal supply tends to be tight, some places will be significantly affected.
At the same time, this year's special weather has also caused a more obvious impact on the supply of new energy in the northeast region. "This year, there are many cloudy and rainy days in the northern region, which has a great impact on solar power generation, and at the same time, the output of wind power is not as good as in the same period of history." Han Xiaoping analyzed the reporter of the "Daily Economic News".
In coastal provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, the phenomenon of repeated power curtailment is more closely related to the severe situation of "double control of energy consumption".
On August 17 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Barometer of the Completion of the Dual Control Target of Energy Consumption in Each Region in the First Half of 2021", which disclosed: In terms of total energy consumption control, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Yunnan, Jiangsu and Hubei 8 provinces (regions) are first-level early warnings; at the same time, in terms of energy intensity reduction, the energy intensity of 9 provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu in the first half of the year does not decrease but rises, which is a first-level early warning.
Image source: National Development and Reform Commission
On September 7, Qi Yusong, deputy director of the Department of Industry and Information Technology of Jiangsu, said at a meeting that since the beginning of this year, the energy-saving situation in Jiangsu Province has been quite severe, and the National Development and Reform Commission has lit a red light for the "double control of energy consumption" in 9 regions of the country, and Jiangsu is also among them, the main reason is that key energy-using enterprises are disorderly and illegally use energy.
On September 24, the person in charge of the Zhejiang Provincial Energy Bureau also said that the current energy consumption growth rate in Zhejiang is fast and the increment is large, especially the growth rate of electricity consumption in the eight high-energy-consuming industries has reached more than 20%, and the rapid growth of energy consumption and the change of energy consumption structure have brought very severe challenges to the province's energy resource security and "energy consumption dual control" situation.
Judging from the common factors of power curtailment in various places, the rise in coal prices is undoubtedly the most important driver. With the rise in the price of commodities such as coal, the price of coal power has been "upside down", which has had a significant restrictive effect on the power supply of various provinces.
The "Daily Economic News" reporter noted that since the beginning of this year, China's coal prices have been at a high level. According to the China Coal Industry Association, the average medium- and long-term contract price from January to July this year was 601 yuan / ton, up 62 yuan / ton year-on-year.
After entering the second half of the year, domestic coal prices did not "recede", but the upward trend intensified. In Shaanxi, one of the main coal-producing regions, the local coal price index released on September 24 has risen to 380.3 points, reaching the highest value in a year.
In the Bohai Rim region, where coal transportation ports are dense, take the locally released Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Price Index as an example, as of September 22, the index has closed at 752 yuan / ton. On June 29 this year, the index was still at 644 yuan / ton. In less than 3 months, the index has risen by almost 17%. If you look at it from a year-on-year perspective, the current index is up 36.98% from the same period last year.
Just on August 28, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics also showed that due to the overall high level of commodity prices, the profit of the coal industry increased by 2.41 times year-on-year, and the growth rate was 30 percentage points faster than that of the previous month. While the profits of the coal industry have soared, the cost pressure of downstream energy-using enterprises will of course increase greatly.
Han Xiaoping said that at present, some countries have issued large-scale currencies, resulting in global commodity prices rising, And China, as the world's most important commodity producer and exporter, will inevitably be greatly affected, which is also one of the fundamental reasons for the rise in coal prices and the impact on power supply.
Li Qilin, director of the Hongta Securities Research Institute, analyzed the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the recent rise in coal prices is mainly constrained by the supply side, coupled with several safety accidents in August, the safety supervision department carried out special inspections of coal mines, which also affected coal production capacity to a certain extent. In addition, environmental protection is also a factor restricting coal production.
At the same time as the domestic supply is insufficient, the customs clearance of foreign coal imports affected by the epidemic has been slow, making the elasticity of the coal supply side weak, and the price has remained high. By early September, the supply-side constraints on coal had not been effectively alleviated, and production was still at a low level.
Supply and demand scissors difference: in the first eight months, nearly 3/4 of last year's electricity consumption has been used, and the coal consumption of power generation in the eight southern provinces and regions has declined week by week
According to data from the China Electricity Council, in 2020, the electricity consumption of the whole society will be 7.51 trillion kWh, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate of the whole society's electricity consumption in each quarter is -6.5%, 3.9%, 5.8% and 8.1%, respectively. However, in the first eight months of this year alone, the country's total electricity consumption has reached 5,470.4 billion kWh, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, equivalent to 73% of last year's total.
In 2020 and 2021, the electricity consumption and growth rate of the whole society will be divided into months
Image source: CLP
By industry, from January to August this year, the primary industry electricity consumption was 66 billion kWh, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year; the secondary industry electricity consumption was 3,652.9 billion kWh, an increase of 13.1%; the tertiary industry electricity consumption was 953.3 billion kWh, an increase of 21.9%; and the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 798.1 billion kWh, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year.
In this regard, Zhu Tong, director of the Energy Economy Office of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed the "Daily Economic News" reporter that electricity consumption has continued to increase since the beginning of this year, but whether the output of high-energy-consuming industries in various places has increased significantly, and whether the power consumption has increased too fast compared with the same period last year, there is still more detailed data to be further analyzed; In addition, it also depends on the categories of export products and the impact of the resulting consumption on electricity consumption.
Taking the steel industry, which is recognized as a large energy consumer, as an example, Wang Guoqing, director of lange Steel Research Center, told the Daily Economic News reporter that in 2020, China's steel production was 1.065 billion tons, while from January to August 2021, China's steel output was 733 million tons, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year.
Monthly electricity consumption in key industries in 2020 and 2021
In addition, the West China Securities Research Report pointed out that from a structural point of view, export-related industries have become the main driving point of electricity demand this year.
Since China's epidemic prevention and control situation is obviously better than that of other countries in the world, when the epidemic continues to spread in other countries, China has undertaken a large number of overseas orders, and exports have continued to improve. Considering that China's exports are mainly manufactured products, this requires the consumption of a lot of electricity.
It is estimated that since the beginning of this year, the average growth rate of electricity consumption in the furniture manufacturing industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, automobile manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, and instrumentation manufacturing industry has been significantly higher than the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society and the overall electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry.
Zhu Tong also said that from the perspective of demand, the electrification of transportation will be the trend of the times, and the development of the electric vehicle industry will also have a relatively large pull on power demand.
The reporter noted that data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that from January to July 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.504 million and 1.478 million units respectively, an increase of about 2 times year-on-year.
A senior practitioner in the energy industry who did not want to sign his name analyzed to the "Daily Economic News" reporter that Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other provinces with near-term electricity have a large total number of enterprises and many orders, in addition to foreign orders, there are also many domestic orders, such as epidemic-related masks and other medical supplies orders have not been lacking. In other provinces, the increase in electricity consumption brought about by urban lighting is not small.
The reporter combed and found that while electricity consumption in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places continued to rise, there was no synchronous growth in the power supply side.
Senior practitioners in the above-mentioned industries said that first of all, in the context of "double carbon", China has been committed to reducing the proportion of thermal power generation, but new energy power generation cannot completely replace the share of thermal power in a short period of time, which has caused a gap in the supply of electricity.
At the same time, the price of coal has risen sharply this year, and the price of electricity has not risen accordingly, making the power plant lack the subjective will to generate electricity, and "if it can be less, it is willing to send less."
Zhu Tong also told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that many power generation companies are currently reducing power generation in the name of maintenance, "because power generation means losses." ”
The reporter combed the power generation data in the first 8 months of this year and found that although the power generation capacity of power plants above the national scale is still increasing year-on-year, the growth rate is declining. Especially after May this year, the year-on-year growth rate of power generation in a single month fell from double digits in the previous period to single digits, and in August, power generation increased by only 0.2% year-on-year, the growth rate hit a new low after March 2020.
GF Securities Research Report believes that the impact of energy consumption limits can also be observed synchronously from the changes in coal consumption for power generation. Taking the eight southern provinces and regions as an example, the average daily coal consumption of power generation from the fourth week of August to the beginning of September was 2.1 million to 2.2 million tons; from September 8 to 9, it fell to 2.08 million tons; after September 13, it further fell to about 1.9 million tons, showing an overall downward trend week by week. As of the third week of September, the average daily coal consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces and regions was down 6.8% from the August average.
Historical comparison: After establishing the goal of dual control of energy consumption, the maximum range of power curtailment, some places rely on vigorous development of high energy consumption to seek development
Since entering this century, China has experienced several large-scale power cuts, but compared with the previous ones, this round of power cuts has been called "the strictest power limit in history" by many people, and the scale is unprecedented.
The "Daily Economic News" reporter sorted out the situation of power curtailment since this century: in August 2003, more than 20 provinces such as Hunan and Zhejiang pulled the brakes to cut electricity;
In January 2008, power rationing occurred in 13 provinces and cities including Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Shanghai and Jiangsu.
In August 2010, Zhejiang, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Jiangsu and other provinces and cities limited power;
Since April 2011, Chongqing, Hunan, Anhui and other places have been curtailed, and Zhejiang, Guizhou, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi and other places have implemented staggered peak electricity consumption;
In December 2020, four provinces and regions including Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia implemented power curtailment.
In contrast, the provinces involved in this round of power curtailment have reached more than ten, and it remains to be seen whether the next power curtailment areas will continue to increase.
It is worth noting that the reporter sorted out the top five provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in 2020, namely Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Ningxia, and in the recent power curtailment process, the five regions have introduced corresponding power curtailment (staggered peak electricity) or production restriction measures.
The reporter noted that the main reasons for several power cuts in China's history are related to extreme weather or the rapid development of high-energy-consuming industries, that is, the demand for electricity has increased sharply in the short term, or the rapid rise in the price of coal, crude oil and other prices has caused the increase in power generation costs and triggered an imbalance between power supply and demand. However, this round of power rationing is superimposed on the factor of "double control of energy consumption".
Dong Xiucheng, professor of the National Institute of Opening Up to the Outside World of the University of International Business and Economics and executive director of the China International Low-Carbon Economy Research Institute, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that this round of power rationing is mainly due to insufficient power supply capacity, but it is also related to the effect of the superposition of "energy consumption dual control" factors.
Dong Xiucheng believes that since China proposed the goal of "double control of energy consumption", power curtailment has also occurred in China, but it is not large in scope this year, mainly because some provinces cannot complete the dual control target, and have to take power rationing measures.
He said that since the state and each province have the indicator of "double control of energy consumption", each province must complete the annual target according to the requirements every year, that is, the total amount and intensity of energy consumption must be controlled, but some provinces may be more difficult to complete.
Zhou Dadi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the "double control of energy consumption" cannot be solved by the universal temporary mandatory power curtailment and suspension of production, and must be completed by strengthening energy conservation and consumption reduction and technological progress, so it is necessary to upgrade technology or carry out technological transformation, strengthen energy conservation management, and at the same time adjust the industrial structure. In terms of investment, local governments should also have a choice, to eliminate backward production capacity, and not to invest in industries with high energy consumption, high pollution and overcapacity, which require long-term efforts to achieve results.
"'Energy consumption double control' is an important indicator of China's green and high-quality development, some places have not really implemented, and seeing that it is about to exceed the standard, it will begin to 'one size fits all' to pull the gate and limit the power, which is a phenomenon of inaction and chaotic action." Local high-polluting industries that do not meet the requirements can be stopped, but they cannot restrict the use of electricity by residents, and the electricity consumption of residents is not large, which will bring social contradictions and will also affect the production of general enterprises, which does not meet the requirements of our dual control and restriction of double high. Zhou Da said.
He stressed that in terms of dual control, it is actually relatively relaxed for local governments, such as large-scale projects of the central government, as long as they are approved by the State Council, basically do not count the scope of locality, nor do they occupy their dual control indicators. In the case of long-term epidemics at home and abroad and greater inflationary pressures, some places are also trying to vigorously develop high-energy-consuming industries and even import energy, and the production process is accompanied by high pollution, and the final export is low-value-added raw material type products, which is itself wrong.
Impact of power rationing: Employees of rent-and-sell generator enterprises deliver overnight continuously, and the price of raw materials in listed companies has increased by 3 times
After the completion of the "double control of energy consumption" goal in the first half of the year, all localities have accelerated the promotion of dual control measures, and recently many high-energy-consuming industries such as steel have also stopped production.
"At present, the impact of power rationing on the company is not large, because photovoltaics belong to low-energy industries, and local governments are still relatively supportive of new energy enterprises, only allowing us to shut down air conditioning and auxiliary equipment, and the main production line has not been affected." Lin Jianwei, chairman of Jolywood (300393, SZ), said in an interview with the Daily Economic News reporter.
Lin Jianwei told reporters that the company received a notice from the local government around the Mid-Autumn Festival (September 21) and will take power curtailment measures next. "Objectively speaking, this time the power curtailment came more suddenly, and different power curtailment measures were taken for enterprises in different industries and different energy consumption." Overall, enterprises with high added value and low energy consumption are more flattering, and high-energy enterprises are not having a good life. ”
The reporter's inquiry found that Suzhou Jolywood Photovoltaic New Material Co., Ltd. was established in 2008 and belongs to the national high-tech enterprise. Focus on innovative R&D and high-quality manufacturing of photovoltaic auxiliary module system integration and other products.
Although this round of power curtailment has little impact on the new energy industry, Lin Jianwei also expressed his concerns.
He told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that in the process of implementing the "dual control of energy consumption", the local government cannot consider the energy consumption of a single link or unit of GDP, but should be analyzed from the perspective of the whole industrial chain and carbon footprint.
For example, although downstream photovoltaic modules and products are high value-added and low energy consumption, upstream raw materials, such as industrial silicon and monocrystalline silicon, are high energy consumption. "Since the beginning of this year, the upstream silicon material has risen from more than 60 yuan a kilogram to more than 200 yuan, the price has risen by about 3 times, and some silicon companies have even stopped production because of high costs."
Lin Jianwei believes that on the one hand, this is related to the tightening of approvals, and on the other hand, there are also factors of power curtailment with sharp brakes. The state has proposed "double carbon" targets, including measures for "double control of energy consumption", which is definitely good for the photovoltaic industry in the long run. However, in the short term, the power rationing needs to be set aside for enterprises in advance, and cannot engage in surprise attacks, otherwise it is easy to lead to the industrial chain "lack of arms and legs".
Zhang Bing (pseudonym), the head of another photovoltaic company in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, also expressed concern about power rationing. He told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that after entering the third quarter of this year, the photovoltaic industry entered the peak season of production and delivery, and at this time, the power ration may aggravate the rise in raw material prices, which in turn will lead to large fluctuations in the price of terminal products.
Zhang Bing believes that the state's implementation of the "dual control of energy consumption" measures aims to force the transformation and upgrading of high-energy-consuming enterprises and reduce the losses of power generation enterprises. However, it is suggested that electricity consumption targets should be issued to enterprises at the beginning of the year so that enterprises can be prepared. Otherwise, engaging in "one-size-fits-all" power curtailment will lead to the entire industrial chain and supply chain being affected, and this superposition effect will bring a more passive situation to downstream enterprises.
Discipline, general manager of Guangdong Baoying New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that since September, the Foshan area of Guangdong Province has adopted the power curtailment measure of "opening two stopping five", and some large households with high energy consumption and electricity consumption in the surrounding area are facing a severe power curtailment crisis. "In particular, there is a concern that orders will not be delivered on time, which will affect the credibility of the company."
Talking about the response measures, Discipline told reporters that one of the company's main businesses is the rental and sale of generators. Recently, almost all of the company's employees have been involved in the business of dealing with customer rental and purchase of generators. "Every day overtime maintenance, delivery, installation and commissioning of diesel generator sets. Many of our colleagues have stayed up three or four nights in a row. ”
Discipline then introduced to reporters a customer Wang Jian (pseudonym) who had just purchased a diesel generator set from the company. Wang Jian has set up a total of 3 companies in Guangdong, Hubei and Hunan, and the company's main business is the production of cameras. He told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the impact of the power restriction measures, the company in Hunan has stopped production since September 20, and the local government has notified the restoration of power supply after October 4. Guangdong here is basically "open two stop four", the company is still operating. Companies in Hubei are not currently affected by power cuts.
Wang Jian told reporters that the power ration policy came more suddenly, which had a more serious impact on production, and the company is considering compressing orders, and the current production capacity has been reduced by almost half. "Buying a generator is a no-brainer, mainly to fulfill previous orders and prevent defaults from incurring additional costs."
Wang Jian calculated that the cost of one kilowatt-hour of electricity for diesel generators is about 2 yuan, and companies in Hunan and Guangdong need to consume nearly 1 million kilowatt-hours of electricity a month, which will generate nearly 2 million yuan of expenses. "Compared with the national grid power supply, self-generating production is completely a loss-making business."
Future trend: Winter will be close to electricity again will correct the "one-size-fits-all" type of power rationing production
In order to cope with this round of power curtailment, on the evening of September 28, Inner Mongolia solicited opinions on the implementation of the reform measures of guaranteed minimum electricity prices, and proposed that the power users in Mengxi who have chosen market-oriented transactions and delisted without legitimate reasons should be responsible for guaranteed power supply by Mengxi Power Grid, which provides transmission and distribution services, and implement the guaranteed minimum price. After the adjustment, the guaranteed electricity price rose from 0.37 to 0.66 yuan. Some analysts believe that this reform will help improve the electricity trading mechanism.
Coincidentally, in order to cope with the impact of rising coal prices, Hunan also intends to implement a price-following mechanism in order to improve the electricity price mechanism - when the price of standard coal exceeds 1300 yuan, the coal price rises by 50 yuan, corresponding to the upper limit of 1.5 points per kilowatt-hour of electricity price increase, so that the increase in electricity prices can basically cover the impact of rising coal prices and reduce the cost pressure of power generation enterprises.
In the future, what will be the situation of regional power supply in the early stage of power curtailment?
In this regard, the research report released by Huaxi Securities believes that in the short term, subjective pressure is easy to loosen, and objective constraints are difficult to solve. Under the background of the pressure of steady growth in the fourth quarter, the "one-size-fits-all" production and power curtailment measures introduced by local governments in order to achieve the goal of "double control of energy consumption" may usher in correction in the near future.
With the advancement of follow-up policy correction, the production and power curtailment will be "doing something, not doing something", and it is expected to give priority to ensuring the power supply required for the normal life of residents and the normal operation of the city, and further focusing the control of production and power curtailment in the "two high" (high energy consumption and high pollution) industries with low energy use efficiency. As for the production restriction and power limit in export-related fields, it may also need to be combined with employment pressure.
Guosheng Securities Research Report believes that in the short term, the lack of supply is still the main constraint, it is expected that after entering the late autumn with the decline in demand, the tight situation of electricity supply and demand may improve, and the increase in residential electricity consumption in the winter of November and December may be tight again.
However, in the long run, at the demand side, the global temperature has risen by more than 1 degree compared with before industrialization, and negative weather events such as extreme weather are becoming more frequent, which may promote the peak of electricity consumption in winter and summer in the future; on the supply side, the proportion of thermal power constrained by environmental protection continues to decline, coal supply is tight, and the resilience of the overall power supply may continue to be low in the coming period.
The reporter also paid special attention to the recent intensive statements made by various places to clearly prevent the impact of power curtailment on residents' lives.
For example, on September 26, Jilin Province held a meeting to make it clear that it is necessary to fully guarantee the basic people's livelihood electricity demand, to avoid the occurrence of power curtailment to the greatest extent possible, and requires the power grid company to be scientific and accurately dispatched, and indeed needs to cut power and limit electricity, and to inform residents in advance to be prepared and guide enterprises to avoid peaks and stagger peaks.
The "Daily Economic News" reporter also noted that in Jilin City, Jilin Province, on September 26, the local power supply company released a message that the original urban power outage plan was now cancelled for some reason.
In Liaoning Province, the local Department of Industry and Information Technology has also made it clear that to ensure the implementation of orderly electricity use in place, it is possible to avoid the occurrence of power curtailment; the local power operation authorities should avoid the power curtailment involving safe production, people's livelihood and important users.
The Heilongjiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission also released a message in September 27 that the power system of Heilongjiang Province will strengthen the analysis and forecasting of the balance between power supply and demand, do a good job in early warning and forecasting, organize power generation enterprises to increase power supply as soon as possible, and strive to resolve the power shortage.
In addition, in view of the current power supply situation, the State Grid Corporation also said that it is necessary to coordinate the allocation of resources, give full play to the advantages of the large power grid platform, and tap the potential of inter-regional and inter-provincial channel transmission; at the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of electricity consumption, make every effort to ensure the use of electricity for residents, serve users well, and respond to concerns.
Recently, with the continuous increase of power curtailment areas, high-energy-consuming industries have been significantly affected.
A-share data also shows that nonferrous metals, steel, coal, electricity, chemicals and other cyclical stocks pulled back again on September 27. On the news side, recently, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Anhui, Yunnan, Shandong, Liaoning and other places have launched power curtailment measures, and the production of steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, textiles and other industries in many places has been affected to a certain extent, and production has been reduced or stopped.
Li Qilin analyzed that the core reason for this round of power curtailment is that the energy consumption in the early production process exceeds the standard, so how to reduce energy consumption and improve the energy structure in production will be an urgent problem to be solved in China's economic development, and will also become a long-term trend in the future, mainly from the supply side and the application side to grasp the relevant investment opportunities.
First of all, from the supply side, the field of clean energy power generation is expected to continue to prosper; secondly, from the application side, it has spawned the demand for new energy equipment and supporting power facilities, and the development space in related fields is huge. You can focus on the industrial chain related to network construction, such as UHV, distribution network suppliers, engineering planning, system integration, etc.
In the morning session of September 28, the three major A-share indexes opened low, and then collectively rushed higher. On the disk, oil and gas extraction, gas, and green power sectors rose in the front. In terms of green power sector, Jinkong Power, Jinshan Shares, Solar Energy, Mindong Electric Power, Energy-saving Wind Power, Guidong Electric Power, Shenneng Shares, Shanghai Electric Power and other individual stocks rose and fell intraday. By the close of trading on the 29th, the above stocks rose and fell, of which Mindong Power continued to rise and fall.
(The data sources in this article are wind except for the annotations)
The reporter's handwriting | "Dual control of energy consumption" should not be temporarily held on to the Buddha's feet
Although there are many reasons, this round of large-scale power curtailment is mainly due to the rise in coal prices and the superposition of "energy consumption dual control".
Seeing that entering the fourth quarter, the energy consumption target may not be completed, and it has begun to engage in a "one-size-fits-all" type of power curtailment, which is a manifestation of local government laziness and slackness, and is irresponsible for the majority of residents who have been seriously affected by the power curtailment.
As a management department, local governments should do a good job of overall planning, give priority to ensuring the power supply required for the normal life of residents and the normal operation of the city, and concentrate the control of production and power curtailment in the "two high" industries with low energy use efficiency.
Moreover, local governments should review the situation and timely macro-control according to market conditions, for example, when the price of coal and other commodities rises and the price of coal power appears to be "upside down", local governments should promptly intervene to adjust electricity prices after meeting certain conditions to reduce the impact of rising raw material prices on power generation enterprises.
Reporter: Li Keyu, Zhang Huaishui, Zhang Rui
Intern reporter: Li Mingming
Editor: Chen Xu Chen Xing
Vision: Liu Qingyan
Typesetting: Chen Xing, Wang Shujie
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