The price once again rushed to the 6 yuan / kg mark, and the price of eggs rose in the off-season

China Business Daily (reporter Ma Jiawen / photo) Less than half a month, the price of eggs that have just dropped has once again rushed to the 6 yuan / catty mark. China Business Daily reporter visited the market and found that the purchase price of eggs in the main production areas has exceeded 5 yuan / kg, and the sales price of eggs in some areas has also exceeded 6 yuan / kg. The fourth quarter was supposed to be the off-season for egg sales, and compared with previous years, the price increase of eggs in this round was more abnormal.

At present, the purchase price of the main egg production area exceeds 5 yuan / catty, and the terminal sales price in some areas has exceeded 6 yuan / catty.

Egg prices rose sharply in the off-season

"In October of previous years, the price of eggs was 4-5 yuan / catty, more than 5 yuan / catty is high." An egg farmer in Shandong told the China Business Daily reporter that this period is the off-season for egg sales, but the market price has suddenly risen. In his opinion, this round of price increases is unexpected, and he and the surrounding farmers do not have more inventory.

In the early fourth quarter, domestic egg prices ushered in a strong rise. According to the data of Shanghai Steel Union - My Agricultural Products Network, a commodity analysis agency, on October 25, the average purchase price of eggs in the main domestic production areas was 5.11 yuan / catty, up 1.04 yuan / catty from the low point of 4.07 yuan / catty after the National Day (October 10), an increase of 25.55% in half a month. In addition, on October 25, egg futures prices also reached a new high.

Why are egg prices behaving so abnormally? Sun Nengji, an egg analyst in the agricultural products division of Shanghai Ganglian E-commerce Co., Ltd., told the China Business Daily reporter that the root cause of this round of egg prices rise is that the stock of laying hens has decreased significantly. As of September, the stock of laying hens was 1.113 billion birds, a decrease of 10% year-on-year. Due to the loss of breeding last year and the high cost of feed this year, the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement the fence was frustrated, the empty fence rate increased compared with previous years, and the rapid cooling of the weather increased the stress response of the layer chickens, and the egg production rate in some areas fell by 3%-5%.

In addition, the "off-season higher" egg prices have also been affected by the previous "low season". Sun Nengji said that after the National Day, the high temperature and rain in the south made the egg storage conditions worse, and the continuous rain in the north at that time affected the local egg merchants' receipts and loading and delivery. The inventory in the egg-producing area increased rapidly, and the pace of the goods was significantly slower, resulting in the price of eggs after the holiday "falling and falling", and the prices of the main production areas fell below 4 yuan / catty. Subsequently, the emotional panic in the market also led to the shortage of intermediate links, laying the groundwork for a strong price rebound in the later stage.

It is worth noting that the strong rise in vegetable and pork prices has also led to a rise in egg prices. "Under the trend of continuous rise in pork and vegetable prices, the role of eggs as a substitute for relatively low prices is particularly significant, and the rebound in egg prices also resonates with the price increases of the two, and there is a significant 'volume and price rise' situation in the egg market." In addition, the public health events in many places in recent days have led to the centralized procurement and preparation of local end consumers, which has further supported the increase in egg sales and price increases. Affected by the limited electricity, some food companies have purchased and prepared goods in advance to produce, which has also supported the rise in egg prices in a certain stage. Sun Nengji said.

With "fly" industrial chain

The rise in egg prices not only ushered in the high point of profits at the breeding end, but also brought "flying" related enterprises in the industrial chain.

Before the fourth quarter, the profit of egg farming reached a high point. According to the data of Shanghai Steel Federation-My Agricultural Products Network on October 25, the profit of eggs at the breeding end reached 0.54 yuan / catty in October. At the same time, according to the data of Zhuo Chuang Information, a commodity analysis agency, in the third quarter of this year (July-September), according to the market price of 5 yuan / kg of eggs and the cost of breeding, raising an egg chicken can make a profit of 53.78 yuan.

The rise in egg prices has also boosted the performance of related companies. According to the financial report, the main revenue of Xiaoming Shares, the "first stock of layer chickens" listed in April this year, was 534 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year, up 25.14% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the mother reached 77.0669 million yuan, up 53.52% year-on-year. The company's revenue and net profit also increased in the third quarter. The relevant person in charge of Xiaoming shares told China Business Daily that the increase in performance was indeed driven by the rise in egg prices.

For the egg-related industrial chain, the fourth quarter may still be a good time to "rush performance". "The profit of eggs at the farming end in October has far exceeded expectations, and the original market generally expected that the market in the early fourth quarter was weak, and some breeding ends have made small profits or non-profit expectations at this stage." However, after the current strong rise in egg prices, the breeding end is also actively shipping with the trend. Sun Nengji said.

There is a high probability of a price decline in the late fourth quarter

Industry insiders believe that in the fourth quarter, egg prices may remain relatively strong.

The increase in egg supply in the fourth quarter remained limited. According to the data of Shanghai Steel Federation- My Agricultural Products Network, according to the current breeding cycle estimates, the average monthly volume of newly produced layer chickens in the fourth quarter was 0.76 billion birds, which was about 25% lower than the average monthly level from January to May this year. The amount of elimination in the fourth quarter (calculated according to the average 17-month breeding cycle) was an average of 0.94 billion birds per month, which indicates that in theory, the number of people entering the elimination period in the fourth quarter is large, and the overall increase in the number of laying hens is expected to be limited.

Under the current circumstances, the demand for eggs may increase in the future. Sun Nengji said that in the context of the overall low inventory, the market phased procurement of goods and the centralized procurement of some areas with serious new crown pneumonia epidemics may make the demand for eggs relatively stable. In addition, there are more holidays in the late fourth quarter, the demand for e-commerce platforms will increase significantly compared with the previous period, and the overall market demand is expected to be more stable. At the same time, it is expected that vegetable prices will be on the overall high side in the late fourth quarter, coupled with the recent continuous rebound effect of pork prices, which will also give obvious support to the rise in egg prices.

"On the whole, the current market high-cost supply to the terminal pass-through and transmission still needs a certain amount of time, so it is expected that in the short term, egg prices will continue to rise or appear weak, and the possibility of a later decline is greater." However, in the overall fourth quarter, egg prices are expected to be at a relatively high price level. Sun Nengji said.