Across the Pacific Ocean, at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time on May 2, the annual Buffett shareholders' meeting kicked off.
In Shanghai, China, the "2021 Buffett Shareholders' Meeting China Investor Summit" hosted by the Industrial Securities Global Fund also arrived as scheduled.
Li Zhenguo, founder and president of LONGi Co., Ltd., Qian Dongqi, chairman of Coworth Group, Lu Xiongwen, dean of school of management of Fudan University, Wang Han, chief economist of Industrial Securities and vice president of the Institute of Economics and Finance, founding partner of Junhe Capital, An Hongjun, chairman of Junhe Capital, Yang Dong, executive director of Ningquan Asset, and many other big coffee participated in the sharing. What are some of the best ideas they bring? Brokerage China reporter takes you to see it.
Li Zhenguo, founder of LONGi: Four stages towards carbon neutrality
Li Zhenguo, founder and president of LONGi Co., Ltd., shared the keynote speech of "New Energy Development Trend under the Background of Carbon Neutrality" at the summit. Li Zhenguo said that there are about four stages to move from today's carbon neutrality. The first stage is to maximize the acceptance of clean energy through the formation of non-physical policy surfaces and the existing flexible adjustment capacity market-oriented demand side to respond to non-physical side adjustments; the second stage is to vigorously develop pumped storage and transformation, which can give up 10 to 15 years of space; the third stage is new energy + energy storage and early hydropower and pumped storage regulation to form a new power system and form decarbonization; the fourth stage is the introduction of hydrogen, in addition to the power system is carbon emissions is a factor, Non-electrical systems account for more carbon emissions, and there is no way to enter deep decarbonization without the introduction of hydrogen.
Qian Dongqi, founder and chairman of Coworth Shares, said that smart home is in the housing scene, using wired or wireless methods, connecting devices to control, so that the occupants' diet, living, leisure and entertainment are healthier, safer, more comfortable and convenient, and the Coworth brand is currently starting from a single point of intelligence, and doing a good job in each single application scenario.
Wang Han, chief economist of Industrial Securities, said at the summit that from the perspective of the central government's tone and the direction of economic development, the economy has entered from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, and the trend of change is very certain.
Chen Jinquan, deputy general manager of Industrial Securities Global Fund, said that revisiting Buffett's wisdom and experience is not aging, and buying high-quality enterprises at reasonable prices is a really good investment. He believes that the rapid development of China's economy has made the change of industry very intense, in the past three or five years, many companies that have bought have grown from a market value of 30 billion and 50 billion to hundreds of billions, and the Chinese economy and industry pattern have not been fixed on this, grasping the direction of economic structure and technological change, deeply studying the future development of enterprises, and achieving dynamic management is a more pragmatic direction.
Buffett's value investment philosophy discussion
The first roundtable sharing theme was "Buffett's Value Investment Philosophy Discussion", and the guests who participated in the discussion included Junhe Capital Founding Partner and Chairman An Hongjun, Licheng Asset Management Ceo Wu Shengtao, Industrial Securities Global Fund Deputy General Manager, Director of Research Department, Fund Manager Dong Chengfei, and Industrial Securities Global Fund Fund Manager Housewarming.
Yang Dong pointed out, "We still have to always be in awe of the market, the market is difficult to predict, in the investment we still have to maintain this conservative attitude, I often hear some colleagues say that there is no problem with high growth in the next 5 years of a company." Don't overestimate yourself, from the perspective of human history, the success rate of prediction is not so high, and many predictions are invalid. Because many times even the front-line management of the company cannot say that it must see the situation clearly next year. To quote Buffett, 'There must be a good margin of safety in investment.' ”
For the future competitive pattern of the electric vehicle market, Yang Dong said that the current new forces of car-making, as well as tesla and BYD, which are temporarily leading, we have also seen Xiaomi to build cars, as well as Huawei, Apple and other heavyweight players have joined the melee, everyone has seen such a large market for cars, and its cake should be re-divided and establish a new order. After the future cake is re-divided, how to divide, how much each family will share, who can find what position, what kind of share, many are unknown.
"In fact, the competition of the technical route, including the competition of enterprises, is often the same as what Darwin said in the theory of evolution, 'natural selection, survival of the fittest', not to say that the technology is the most advanced, nor is it to say who works hardest, who invests the most, or even that who has the first-mover advantage must be the winner, everything is full of changes." Yang Dong said.
An Hongjun said, "Munger has talked about credibility and integrity as the most important assets of people, and I think even in the investment industry, the most important thing is character." Although there may be some cultures between regions that are different and the playing style is different, the only constant is the recognition of personal character, word of mouth, and brand, which is unchanged in any industry. ”
An Hongjun also talked about the qualities that excellent entrepreneurs should have, and he believed that there are four points: the first is to have a sense of family and country, buffett also said that no one is relying on shorting their motherland to make money; the second is to have a long-term consideration and a grand pattern; the third is to be able to unite a group of people and form an excellent team. A person can go very fast, but a group of people can go far, so as an excellent entrepreneur, you must have the ability to recognize and employ people, have the ability to unite people, organize people, and be able to share together; finally, you must have tenacious quality and diligence, an excellent entrepreneur IQ and emotional intelligence is important, the most important thing is to reverse the business, to have the courage and determination to repeatedly defeat.
For often reflecting on this matter, Dong Chengfei said that on the one hand, it is due to his own personality, on the other hand, he also feels that this is a necessary condition for survival in the industry. This industry is future-oriented, to predict the future, but the future is uncertain, which requires lessons from history to guide us, revise the prediction of the future, improve the winning rate of the prediction of future changes, and reflect on it to be more adapted to the future market.
Housewarming said that her investment methodology is that the investment goal of funds is to obtain a more reasonable excess return in the long-term dimension. On top of this foundation, the company's culture has been deeply influenced. In the long-termist thinking, it is very important to control risk. To "defend first and then attack", to keep the risk and bottom line of investment, and then to find excess returns, this is a very important bottom line thinking in her investment methodology. Specific to the daily methodology, we work from the bottom up, hoping to select excellent individual stocks, business growth and returns.
On the question of what is a good business model, she said, "We have seen a lot of business models in the past that are short-lived, and a good business model must be that this enterprise creates social value, so that it has long-term value and significance." We do not have to statically look at a business model called good or bad, such as asset weight does not look so good, some companies look lighter, is a very good business model, behind the distinction between good and bad, in fact, how much ability of enterprises to maintain the advantage of first mover. ”
Opportunities and challenges in the new economy
The second roundtable shared the opportunities and challenges of the new economy as the theme, and Du Changyong, executive director of Rui county asset management, Jiang Tong, partner of Jinglin Asset Management, fund manager Jiang Tong, founding partner and chief investment officer of Ivy Capital Asset, and Xie Zhiyu, assistant general manager, investment director and fund manager of Industrial Securities Global Fund, participated in the discussion.
Du Changyong pointed out that from the perspective of capital and asset allocation, in the past, real estate was the main direction of asset allocation, and in the future, it is necessary to adhere to the "housing and not speculation", the future must be the era of equity, and only the equity market can undertake this volume.
When talking about China's industrial opportunities in the next 5 to 10 years, Jiang Tong said that the future is optimistic about manufacturing, 2C Internet, service robots and new energy. She believes that in the future, on the basis of manufacturing, digitalization, intelligence and automation are superimposed, and there is a high investment in research and development, and the three major elements in the future are helpful to the manufacturing industry, so the overall competitiveness will be very strong.
Huang Yong said that whether a company has the ability to raise prices for a long time is the most important question we ask when looking at long-term competitiveness. For example, he said, the typical liquor industry is a very good industry that meets our standards, so we have held a lot of liquor stocks for a long time because we value the characteristics of this industry. In the long run, what we value most is the bargaining power of a company's products.
Xie Zhiyu said that in the early years, the concept of speculation in the A-share market was very common, and the situation of complete speculation in recent years was reduced compared with before, the core is that everyone's judgment of authenticity is more demanding than before, such as when it comes to new energy vehicles or photovoltaics, which have strong demand and huge market space in the future, the most common practice now must be to find the most core and most competitive listed companies in this industry, not to find a company with the smallest market value and the greatest flexibility under the concept.
In response to the problem of fund manager management boundaries, he believes that it can be viewed from two levels, first, the upper limit of fund manager management depends on the size of the company they can invest in, which is why the scale of fund manager management in the United States is much larger than the domestic market, only entrepreneurs make the company bigger and stronger, the quality of the enterprises we can contact is large enough, can accommodate enough investment, and the investment space of fund managers can be expanded.
Second, from the perspective of self-cultivation, everyone has their own management boundaries, and this process is expanded with continuous learning, and the process is gradual.
"We are very confident in China's overall economy, and believe that the larger the economy, the stronger the competitiveness of our enterprises, and I also believe that the management scale of fund managers will still expand." Xie Zhiyu said.