Zhang Da: Don't underestimate the central government's determination to "live in housing and not speculate"

The recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee has attracted much attention to the expression of real estate, especially the four words of "housing and not speculation" are not mentioned, only the sentence "promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market", and some people have illusions about the relaxation of the property market regulation and control policy. In fact, the failure to mention "housing and not speculation" this time does not mean that the policy orientation has changed, and the central government's determination to "live in housing and not speculate" cannot be underestimated.

In the first half of this year, in order to cope with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the economy, the state issued a series of support policies, the overall monetary policy environment is loose, in this context, some funds inevitably flowed to the real estate market, resulting in the hot city real estate market took the lead in recovery, and even the new situation of overheating house prices and illegal funds flowing into the property market. However, despite the increased downward pressure on the economy, the central government has never relaxed real estate regulation and control, still insisting on "not using real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term", and the policy of stimulating demand in individual places has also been stopped, showing the determination and determination of the central government to stabilize real estate.

Since July, the central government has held many meetings to emphasize that "housing is not speculation", releasing a signal of tightening regulation. Among them, two meetings convened a total of 14 city "talks", reiterated the positioning of "housing and not speculation", for the first time emphasized "tightening the string of regulation and control at all times", requiring the implementation of the main responsibility of the city to ensure the realization of stable land prices, stable housing prices, and stable expectations. At the same time, since July, there have been Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Changchun, Haikou, Wuxi, Shenyang and other cities with high property market heat, significant rise in house prices, and speculation atmosphere, which have successively tightened the property market regulation and control policies, among which Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Dongguan and other places are "plugging leaks" and upgrading, "patching" the previous policies.

Although under a series of regulatory measures, the overall cooling of housing prices in the country, but recently there are still chengdu, Shenzhen, Xi'an and other places of new housing market is hot, "ten thousand people shake the number", "crowdfunding to hit the new" and even "holding the house speculation", Ningbo also appears a number of individual real estate investors, some special groups to settle down and divorce as a means to invest in speculation, the use of gifts to circumvent the purchase restriction policy and other issues. For these new situations and new problems, Chengdu and Xi'an have successively increased regulation; Shenzhen also said that it is studying comprehensive regulation and control policies to resolutely crack down on market speculation and speculation; Ningbo has "patched" the previous new policy to plug the loopholes in speculation. This reflects the resolute implementation of the central government's positioning of "housing and not speculation" in various localities.

In fact, since the Central Economic Work Conference in 2016 first proposed the positioning of "housing and not speculation", this main tone of regulation and control has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and it is not mentioned at every meeting. For example, at the Politburo meeting last December, there was no mention of real estate, and some people speculated about regulatory policies or relaxation at that time, but the subsequent Central Economic Work Conference once again clarified the positioning of "housing and not speculation". This year's "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal also clearly proposed to adhere to the positioning of "housing and not speculation", which has set the tone for real estate regulation in the next 5 years.

As Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said, real estate is the largest "gray rhinoceros" in China's financial risks at this stage, which means that real estate financial supervision will continue to be strict. Although the price limit policy has caused the price of first-hand houses to be inverted, creating a wealth effect of "pie in the sky", investors who "hold and speculate on behalf of the house" will face the risk of bank loan rejection once the source of funds is thoroughly investigated. Therefore, real estate should not be used as a variety of speculation with high expectations, and speculators should not underestimate the determination of the central government to "live in housing and not speculate". The central government has made it clear that it is necessary to "continuously improve the policy toolbox", and in the future, with the continuous improvement of the long-term mechanism and the withdrawal of unconventional policies, the real estate market will tend to be rational and stable, and the speculators will gain more than they lose.

This article originated from the Securities Times