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Whether you studied liberal arts or sciences while you were a student, no matter what job you are doing now, we face and use the problems of probability theory every day.
For example: if you toss a coin 5 times straight, is the probability of the 6th head-up or less?
Is it possible to have a once-in-fifty-year rainstorm for two consecutive years?
How is the precise delivery of online advertising achieved?
Why does machine learning require a lot of data information?
What can I do to improve my chances of finding a lifelong partner?
These questions about daily life, cutting-edge technology, and even future planning can be found in the book "Liu Jia's General Lecture Notes on Probability Theory".
Liu Jia, the author of "Liu Jia's General Lecture Notes on Probability Theory", is an associate professor at Nanjing University, and he is good at making abstract mathematics vivid and interesting, so that everyone can understand and get some inspiration from it.
Liu Jia is your bridge to probability theory and cultivate probabilistic thinking.
The problems mentioned above are all questions of probability.
These seemingly common phenomena in life are, in fact, a university question.
With the development of big data and artificial intelligence, the importance of probability theory is highlighted. Liu Run, founder of Runmi Consulting, said: "Without a little probabilistic thinking, it is difficult to understand cutting-edge technology and understand the real world."
Probability theory is a young, basic, and important mathematical discipline.
Liu Jia's "Liu Jia Probability Theory General Lecture Notes" will take you into the world of probability theory and add a pair of heavenly eyes to your view of the world.
Learn probability, in order to predict and grasp the future There are too many things related to probability in life, it can be said that probability and probability are equivalent to ordinary people and masters.
You may feel that the probability is a bit abstract, for a simple example: the old Wang family has two children, if the eldest is known to be a girl, then the probability of the other one being a boy is 1/2, if one of them is a girl, then the probability of the other being a boy becomes 2/3.
Didn't you think it was funny?
Probability can also be used for medical treatment, for example: a person goes to the hospital for examination, the doctor first assumes that the person is not sick, and then through a series of tests to test. Like to do nucleic acid, if the test is negative, then the probability that the person is not infected is very large, if the test is positive, the probability of the person not being infected is very small, and further examination is needed.
In life, if you want to succeed, you must find the conditions that have the greatest impact on success.
In other words, to find the conditions that maximize the probability. For example, for entrepreneurship, the average probability of success may be only 1%, but if you can have key technologies, find high-quality and inexpensive sources, commonly used differentiated competition, etc., the probability of success will be greatly increased.
When it comes to probability, we have to say another word – random.
Randomness is uncontrollable and unpredictable, but randomness does not equal uncertainty.
Take listening to songs. If we choose "Shuffle", we don't know which one will be played and which one will be played next, but if we choose the playlist of 10 songs" "shuffle", then it must be one of the 10 songs.
Randomness and probability are the norm in this world, and they are also the background of this world.
The science writer Wan Weigang said: The underlying laws of this world are randomness and probability.
Ideas and calculation methods for solving probability problems Solving probability problems is to turn local randomness into overall certainty, that is, to take into account all possible outcomes.
You toss 8 coins in a row, all are positive, what is the probability of the next coin being positive?
Think about it, we will analyze it in detail at the end of the article.
Remember, you have to consider the possible outcomes. Regarding the method of probabilistic calculation, the author gives us two basic laws: the first is the "law of addition"; the second is the "law of multiplication".
In other words, the probability calculation only involves four operations that even children can do, is it not very simple to say?
Older youth are most concerned about how to increase the number of potential partners; students are concerned about exams, especially key exams such as the middle school entrance examination and the college entrance examination... These actually involve probability problems, which can be increased by calculation.
Specific calculation methods, as well as formulas, are listed in detail in the book, so I will not repeat them all.
Looking back, in fact, learning probability is not difficult to calculate, but to understand.
Therefore, a good foundation in language and a good understanding ability will have advantages. In other words, this book is not about math, but about language. Just above the result of the coin toss you came up with? Yes, the probability is 1/2, the probability of the 9th time has nothing to do with the previous 8 times, and the coin has only two sides, either positive or negative.
Is it exactly what you think?