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Economist Lang Xianping: If everyone does not have a second child, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? First, the birth plan two, the birth of two children and three, the phenomenon of inner volume

author:Qingzhu Yayun

At that time, after the two-child policy was issued, it attracted the attention of a wide range of people, some people responded positively, and some people questioned.

For the attitude of the two-child policy, most of the post-90s masses said that it was difficult to accept, after all, from childhood to adulthood, they grew up in the policy of fewer eugenics, and the sudden two-child policy sounded very strange.

Economist Lang Xianping: If everyone does not have a second child, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? First, the birth plan two, the birth of two children and three, the phenomenon of inner volume

So, where is the need to promote the two-child policy? In this regard, economist Lang Xianping proposed that if the two-child policy is not responded to at this time, then there will be less than 580 million people left in China after 50 years.

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There is a very big link between the two-child policy and family planning, both of which are fertility policies, but the goals pursued are completely different. What both have in common is that they have been implemented in China, but now they have received completely different reactions.

Today's Chinese population has 141178 million people, and this huge number makes our country the most populous country in the world, and the reason why there is such a huge number is that we should see the national situation since the founding of New China.

In the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's economy was backward, but the population was huge, and the economy could not move such a large population group. On the advice of economist Ma Yinchu, the government decided to have family planning.

Although economic development has never depended on the number of people, it was speculated at the time that if the population was not controlled, the current population could reach 1.8 billion.

Economist Lang Xianping: If everyone does not have a second child, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? First, the birth plan two, the birth of two children and three, the phenomenon of inner volume

As far as the economic situation at that time was concerned, it was definitely a big trouble, so the implementation of the family planning policy could not be postponed, but within a few years, the birth policy changed.

After the end of World War II, a major problem hanging over countries was the problem of low fertility rates, which meant that the country did not have enough labor to provide support, and the entire society lacked labor to fill, and the economy could not only not develop, but even the most basic production was a major difficulty.

Chinese population is already a large base, and there is a problem with the lack of labor to provide production.

Economist Lang Xianping: If everyone does not have a second child, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? First, the birth plan two, the birth of two children and three, the phenomenon of inner volume

In order to stimulate the desire of young people at that time to have children, the government issued a policy of more children and more land, and it is precisely because of this policy that the reason for the huge population base today can also be found.

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For most young people today, although they are of marriageable age, marriage is not necessarily considered a necessity in life.

The source of such an idea is actually very simple, on the one hand, the reason comes from the spiritual abundance of the self, on the other hand, the economic independence of men and women today is improved, and the benefits of combining families are less than the happiness of singlehood.

Economist Lang Xianping: If everyone does not have a second child, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? First, the birth plan two, the birth of two children and three, the phenomenon of inner volume

In his speech, he put forward an idea: If everyone does not have a second child now, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? Someone calculated on the spot to come up with the answer, less than 580 million people.

This means that there will be a large shortage of labor in China as a whole, and the economic volume of the present and the past will disappear.

In addition, before the final situation is formed, China's labor force will be very tired, and this part of the labor force will be concentrated in middle-aged people, some old and some young.

Economist Lang Xianping: If everyone does not have a second child, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? First, the birth plan two, the birth of two children and three, the phenomenon of inner volume

This problem will accelerate faster than the previously raised questions, and the bigger problem than the final number of working people is not enough to support the promotion of economic development, the bigger problem is the "2+1+2" family structure, and an adult is likely to bear the problem of his parents' pension and the problem of raising children.

Imagine what will be the change of everyone after the opening of the two-child policy: parents rely more on nursing homes and medical insurance problems, but the current domestic medical policy can not protect all diseases, similar to cancer and other major diseases can be reimbursed insignificant, special treatment supplies such as special drugs can only be paid at their own expense.

The pressure of a serious illness can crush a middle-class family, even if there are insurance and other protection policies, but more ordinary people who cannot afford to pay insurance costs.

They are faced with panics that are powerless against themselves and panics that resist their own "burden" consciousness, self-ending is not alarmist, and there are many people who end their lives overnight without stressing their children.

Economist Lang Xianping: If everyone does not have a second child, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? First, the birth plan two, the birth of two children and three, the phenomenon of inner volume

This is not everything, and the children's educational problems are also a big reason to bend the spine of parents.

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Today's inner volume problem is serious, and this is no longer a competition between children, but a comparison between parents.

Is it a rare case that the frequent explosion of education costs can make a middle-class family choose to grit their teeth and insist? Of course not.

In Shanghai, a woman with a car and a house without economic problems wants to send her children to go abroad from high school and needs to grit her teeth, a major disease can destroy the family's decades of hard work, all kinds of realities make us grit our teeth for middle-aged people in the transition period, living in the world is the most difficult thing.

In addition, young people who have not yet entered the marriage hall have developed a fear of marriage, and paying more attention to spiritual matching is a major problem, and the other is the cost of raising that is visible to the naked eye.

Economist Lang Xianping: If everyone does not have a second child, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? First, the birth plan two, the birth of two children and three, the phenomenon of inner volume

As rising prices gradually squeeze everyone's living space, no one can dare to imagine an additional increase in the cost of survival.

In fact, after careful observation, we will find a very contradictory phenomenon, that is, in the era of economic backwardness, we can improve the quality of life of a large number of people by dividing up the land.

In today's time, when the quality of life of the people is rising, even if the monthly subsidy is issued, it is difficult to attract people's desire to have children.

I have to say that when the people's quality of life continues to rise today, no one will want to add a burden to their own lives.

For most ordinary families, just to prepare the house and car needed for their children to get married can empty the bottom of two families.

Economist Lang Xianping: If everyone does not have a second child, how many people will be left in China in 50 years? First, the birth plan two, the birth of two children and three, the phenomenon of inner volume

This is the sadness and helplessness of life, and childbearing has become a very important concept in the parents' generation, but today's consciousness is more resistant to giving birth to the next generation.

The two major contradictions collide, and how China responds to the subsequent population crisis can only be expected.

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