#春日生活打卡季#
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10,000 for one child, 50,000 for the second child, and 100,000 for the third child.
In the 2025 government work report, for the first time, "childcare subsidies will be issued".
Just a week after the report was released, there were substantial follow-up efforts in China. This efficiency can be said to be very interesting:
Image source: Internet
On March 13, Hohhot City, Inner Mongolia issued the implementation rules and service procedures for the childcare subsidy project of the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Population Agglomeration and Promoting High-quality Population Development".
Among them, it is clearly stated that:
A one-time childcare subsidy of 10,000 yuan will be issued for the birth of one child;
A childcare subsidy of 50,000 yuan will be issued for the second child, and 10,000 yuan will be issued per year until the child is 5 years old;
A childcare subsidy of 100,000 yuan will be issued for giving birth to three children or more, and 10,000 yuan per year will be issued until the child is 10 years old.
Image source: See image
This latest policy trend on childbirth is very interesting: from family planning to the implementation of the policy of "giving money to have children", China's attitude towards changes in population trends has obviously undergone a key turning point.
Moreover, the implementation of this latest fertility incentive policy, corresponding to the domestic economic environment, brings potential impact and significance, which is not simple.
This article will be based on a detailed combing of the latest announcement of the new policy of high childcare subsidies in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, combined with several other important backgrounds and related trends, from the perspective of respecting common sense and respecting the law, in-depth excavation of the key signals reflected by this trend, and a special discussion and analysis of the possibility of subsequent policies related to other cities and regions in China.
Pay attention to trends, grasp the essence, see the main line, study and judge the trend, and guide actions.
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1
Hohhot gives birth to a three-child subsidy of 100,000 yuan? What's going on?
The 2025 government work report proposes to "formulate policies to promote childbirth and issue childcare subsidies".
Only three days after the end of the two sessions, Hohhot took the lead in releasing a big move.
(On March 13), the Health Commission of Hohhot City, Inner Mongolia issued the implementation rules and service procedures for the childcare subsidy project of the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Population Agglomeration and Promoting High-quality Population Development".
Image source: See image
Among them, the issuance criteria clearly state:
- A one-time childcare subsidy of 10,000 yuan will be issued for the birth of one child;
- A childcare subsidy of 50,000 yuan will be issued for the second child, and 10,000 yuan will be issued per year until the child is 5 years old;
- A childcare subsidy of 100,000 yuan will be issued for giving birth to three children or more, and 10,000 yuan per year will be issued until the child is 10 years old.
Strictly speaking, Hohhot is not the first city in the country to issue birth subsidies.
For example, as early as July 2021, Panzhihua took the lead in the country to launch the policy of "issuing a monthly subsidy of 500 yuan per child for two- and three-child families until the child is 3 years old".
In addition, in the past few years, at least nearly 20 localities across the country have introduced childcare subsidies at the provincial and municipal levels. For example, at the provincial level, there are Yunnan, Ningxia, etc.
Image source: Internet
But this time, Hohhot's plan is still an important landmark and breakthrough.
First, this is the first place to introduce specific implementation rules after the first mention of childcare subsidies at the national level. Then its relevant standards and distribution methods are bound to have the significance of a weather vane.
Second, compared with the previous plans launched in some places, Hohhot's breakthrough is manifested in two aspects.
On the one hand, the childcare subsidies in most places in the past only benefited the second and third children, which means that they basically did not have access to the first child. This time, Hohhot has subsidies for one, two, and three children.
On the other hand, in terms of amount, even the standard of 10,000 yuan for one child is higher than the previous standard in most places. The second and third children are subsidized by 50,000 and 100,000 respectively, which far exceeds the previous standards in most places.
can be simply calculated, the birth population in Hohhot in 2023 will be 20,000 (last year's population data has not yet been announced), even if the birth population this year is the same as in 2023, then the government needs to invest at least 200 million yuan in subsidies in the first year, and the investment will rise after the second and third children are included in the following years.
This time, Hohhot, as the provincial capital (capital) city, took the lead in enlarging the recruitment, which is also related to the local population situation. In August 2023, the "18 Measures for Attracting and Retaining People in Hohhot" proposed: by the end of 2025, the city's permanent population will exceed 3.75 million. As of 2023, Hohhot's permanent population is 3,604,100, and it will obviously be under pressure to achieve the above goals in two years.
It is worth noting that in addition to encouraging childbirth, Hohhot has also taken frequent actions in "attracting and retaining people" in recent years. In 2018, in the "9 New Policies for Talents", Hohhot gave the green light to the policy of "online settlement" for college students across the country. In 2023, the "18 Articles for Attracting and Retaining People" proposes to fully open up the settlement of cities and towns, and "if you want to settle down, you should do everything". In June last year, Hohhot announced that it had completed the goal of "100,000 college students staying in Hohhot in three years" ahead of schedule.
From "grabbing people" to "giving birth", the specific realization path may be different, but there are many similarities in the formulation of public policies.
Thing, is such a thing, well-founded, logical, clear at a glance.
The introduction of this latest public policy in Hohhot marks that since the national level has clearly "issued childcare subsidies", the era of real money "birth" has really come.
Image source: Headline Gallery
2
What signals can be seen from the first "crab-eating" policy plan in Hohhot?
From the policy plan announced by Hohhot, the following signals are very clear and certain:
First of all, the distribution of childcare subsidies at the national level will most likely cover all births and be inclusive. In other words, even if you have one child, you can enjoy a certain subsidy.
Secondly, with reference to the current local standards, the follow-up implementation of local standards should be improved to varying degrees.
In addition, there is another question that many people are concerned about, where does the childcare subsidy begin?
For example, can I still get subsidies for childbirth before this year?
Image source: Internet
Hohhot's subsidy targets are newborns born after March 1 (including March 1).
At the same time, it is clear that for newborns born in the first two months of this year, the subsidy will be implemented in accordance with the relevant provincial regulations.
Image source: Internet
Combining these two details, it may mean that in places where there was no childcare subsidy system before, the new policy may require that it be implemented from this year.
In other words, if it is not retroactive, there is a high probability that children before 2025 may not be eligible for subsidies.
In addition, with reference to the Hohhot plan, the specific subsidy issuance standards should also be based on prefectures and cities, rather than being unified across the province and the whole country. In other words, there will be significant differences in the level of subsidies in different places.
Why give money to encourage childbearing?
This question, I'm afraid I don't need to expand too much, from the marriage rate, to the trend of the fertility rate, this number has been detailed combing and analysis of a number of special articles.
In 2024, the collapse of kindergartens in many places in China will appear, which can actually explain a lot of problems.
Image source: Headline Gallery
3
Trend research and judgment: Next, how to see the trend of "sending money to give birth" to the popularization of the country?
Objectively speaking, Hohhot's subsidy is the largest in the current policy, and it should still have a little effect, and other cities should soon follow suit.
Moreover, from the perspective of the country's attitude, there is no controversy about the trend of large-scale implementation of maternity subsidies across the country:
Image source: See image
Judging from the current situation, there are almost 23 provinces that provide birth subsidies across the country, and the three cities that directly send money and have more money are: Hohhot, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou.
Some people may think that giving money directly must be the place where there is money, and then it is estimated that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen will give the most.
But I personally believe that, on the contrary, it is more likely that the future will be a city with a large demographic dividend, and the childcare subsidy will be relatively conservative;
Cities with less demographic dividends, especially third- and fourth-tier cities in the central, western, and northeastern regions, have greater childcare subsidies.
The economic logic in this is not complicated:
First-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, including provincial capitals with strong economic fundamentals, don't need to subsidize too much at all, because the locals in these cities don't look down on the three melons and two dates, even if they give 100,000, at this level of the city, it will not play much role for foreign groups.
Urban fertility rates are still declining.
So what will happen to these cities in the future? Quite simply, as long as they continue to develop the economy, children in fourth- and fifth-tier cities will automatically flow to first-tier cities to study and work when they grow up.
The result is a local asset.
If the local fertility rate is not good, it will be supplemented by attracting talents and inflowing into the population, and it is a finished product that directly skips the stage of fertility and education.
Sounds right, but where can I find money to subsidize in the fourth and fifth tier cities?
Transfer payment, first-tier and big cities engage in economic money, and then the money is handed over to the state, and the birth subsidy is passed on in the form of transfer payment.
Isn't this a perfect economic cycle?
So, can childcare subsidies increase fertility rates? Can China's sluggish fertility rate be reversed?
Rational judgment: There may be some positive pulling and stimulating effects in the short term, but in the long run, the continuous decline of the Chinese population, the low fertility rate, and the accelerated depletion of the concept of demographic dividend are inevitable trends.
The "war for population defense", after many attempts by many countries and economies, has proved to be a false proposition.
After the implementation of the inclusive birth subsidy, the overall fertility population may increase in the short term, but in the long run, it may be difficult to fundamentally change the regional population pattern.
Image source: Headline Gallery
Write at the end:
What conclusions and inspirations can be drawn from the review and discussion of this latest policy trend?
That's it for the basic situation and content, and there is no need to repeat it, public policy, public authority, interested friends, you can search for it yourself.
At the end of the article, based on the combing and discussion of Hohhot's latest public policy trends on fertility encouragement, I would like to share with you a few personal thoughts and views.
1. If you look at it from a more macro perspective of the country, the birth subsidy policy introduced in the future will even increase if the effect is not great.
In other words, the state will continue to introduce incentives.
However, the population is mobile, and the population pulled up by local government subsidies will eventually flow to the first and strong second lines.
In essence, it is still to continue the logic of "demographic dividend" to do this.
Path dependence, economic inertia, that's probably what it means.
If this logic is not adjusted and changed at the substantive and essential level, the short-term stimulus effect can be expected, and there is still not much imagination in the medium and long term.
In the final analysis, there is a rush, there is hope for a breakthrough, and there is an expectation of a better life, and in the matter of having children, it is more important and meaningful than giving money.
2, don't engage in moral kidnapping, grand narratives and national will are not the reason for birth.
Corresponding to the perspective of individuals and families, whether to have the power to give birth or not, or to firmly grasp in their own hands, do what they can, and make rational choices.
The truth is from the outside world, the opinions are all other people's, and life is what you want to live.
To put it simply, let's just say these two points.
The above is a special combing, analysis and discussion of the latest public policy trends in Hohhot on fertility encouragement in March 2025, and an exchange and sharing with readers and friends of Toutiao.
Image source: Headline Gallery
(According to the latest regulations of the relevant state departments, the content and opinions of this article are for reference only, and do not constitute any clear advice on property purchase, investment, etc., and enter the market at your own risk.) ）
The above text is from @pandabeibeicute
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