Let's put it bluntly: most people don't need to wait for this wave of super-sized flagships this spring.
With the arrival of a new round of new mobile phone products in spring, many users who are ready to change their phones this year are a little hesitant: should you wait for the super-large cup models of various brands? When the national subsidy policy had just been implemented, we calculated that the machine superimposed national subsidy at a price of about 3,333 yuan was the most cost-effective. But the fact is that in the past period of time, among the models that enjoy the national subsidy policy, the largest increase in sales is the high-end models with a price of 4000-6000 yuan.
This reflects an interesting consumer psychology of everyone: since you can enjoy the national subsidy policy, it is equivalent to "taking advantage", so why not simply go to a higher-end flagship? It seems that with the national subsidy policy, everyone tends to choose some products that originally exceeded the budget. Under the influence of this psychology, many people are aiming for this wave of super-sized flagships in the spring of 2025.
But for most people, it's not really necessary.
丨The Pro version is economical
For most ordinary users, the Pro version, that is, the big cup model, is completely sufficient. At present, the core difference between the super-large cup version of the domestic flagship and the large-cup product is the image configuration, workmanship, and materials. In terms of camera experience, with the refinement and maturity of the Pro version of the model at the hardware and algorithm level, it has approached the super-large cup model in most scenarios and experiences.
There is a pattern in high-end products: as the product function and price continue to increase, the marginal benefit obtained by consumers for each additional unit cost will gradually decrease. For example, for mid-range and flagship phones, the experience is comprehensively improved. Upgrading from the standard version to the Pro version also brings the same thing to the experience improvement brought by the screen and performance. However, when continuing to upgrade to the Ultra version, many of the more professional features and experiences are no longer obvious to ordinary users, resulting in a decrease in cost performance and practicality.
According to the pricing rules of the recent generations of domestic large cups and super large cup flagships, Ultra models are often about 30% more expensive than the Pro version of the model. For example, the starting price of Xiaomi 14 Pro is 4999 yuan, and the starting price of Xiaomi 14 Ultra is 6499 yuan. The expensive 1500 yuan is mainly to get the Leica triple camera system of the Xiaomi 14 Ultra. This is destined,Users who are willing to spend about 1500 yuan more to choose the Ultra model,It must be a group with a relatively high pursuit of taking pictures。
At this point in time in 2025, the Super Cup still faces the question of whether it can participate in the national supplement. At present, the national subsidy policy is only for models below 6000 yuan, and most Ultra products are priced at more than 6000 yuan. This means that unless the platform or brand makes a special discount for the entry version such as 12+256GB, these super-large flagships will not be able to enjoy the national subsidy. Especially if you want to enjoy a large-capacity version like 512GB, it may be difficult to make up for it in the short term.
On the contrary, if you choose the Pro version that has been listed, you can not only enjoy the national subsidy, but also calmly choose the large-capacity version. In terms of core experience and functions, it can achieve the level of eighty percent of the super large cup. For most people, I think it's the more affordable option.
丨Ultra products have a higher depreciation rate
Another point that cannot be ignored is that the value retention rate of super-large cup products in the past two years is lower than that of large-cup products as a whole. Taking the new products in the spring of 2024 as an example, we investigated the depreciation rate of the super-large cups and large-cup products of Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, and came up with the following table.
Calculation description: depreciation rate = (original price - channel price) / original price
It can be clearly seen that, in addition to vivo, the current depreciation rate of Xiaomi and OPPO's super-large cup products is around 30%. In other words, before the arrival of new products, the price of super-large cup products will basically be close to the price of previous large-cup products, or even lower. On the contrary, it is a large cup, due to the early launch, the new product has completed the iteration. After the old model was discontinued, the price was able to stabilize. For example, the channel price of Xiaomi 14 Pro is still strong above 4000 yuan so far, which is quite rare.
From the perspective of value retention, Ultra products are more suitable for "waiting for the party", but some Pro products can be "bought early and enjoyed early". Especially if you value the photo effect of your phone, the old Ultra is more worth choosing. For example, an imaging flagship like the Find X7 Ultra can now be easily won for less than 4,000 yuan, which is very cost-effective.
So for most users who pursue cost performance, at this juncture, my pertinent advice is: if you want to buy a new model, you can go directly to the Pro version. If you want to take good photos and the price is cost-effective, choose the old Ultra.
Especially this year, we have to take into account the situation of national subsidies, and the price of Ultra models must fall back to less than 6000 yuan to enjoy the subsidy. However, the Ultra model is the "façade" of domestic manufacturers, and it is unlikely to disrupt the original high-end pricing system by directly reducing prices. Therefore, it is expected that these Ultra flagships will be on the market for a period of time before the channel price adjustment can usher in the national subsidy. And this cycle should theoretically be a quarter after the listing. That is, around 618.
If you want to buy a new Ultra and want to get a national subsidy, you just have to wait.
丨Who is suitable for rushing to the starter
In retrospect, these purchase recommendations we gave earlier are only for the average user. These suggestions themselves are to cater to the needs of ordinary users, not to say that those who rush to Ultra in the first place are "big injustices". For professional users, there are naturally reasons for the launch of the Ultra.
First of all, of course, is the concept of "buy early, enjoy early". Judging from the situation in the past two years, the initial price of the Ultra model is relatively stable. Generally speaking, it is only around the time of the launch of the new model that the price of the older Ultra model will see a significant price reduction. These Ultra models will only have a relatively large discount margin when they encounter a big promotion time point like 618. Many users may want to buy a new machine as soon as possible, and the purchase cost may indeed be hundreds or thousands of dollars higher, but you will use the latest top-of-the-line flagship before more people.
What's more, many of the current super-large cup models have some exclusive discounts during the first release period, such as limited edition gift boxes, giveaways, etc., considering the scarcity of these products, there is no problem in rushing to the first launch.
Another overlooked point is AI. I don't need to introduce too much about the popularity of DeepSeek. Starting this year, mobile phone access to the latest AI technology is bound to be a common practice among mobile phone manufacturers. Unlike the previous AI functions, AI represented by DeepSeek is a new technology that can bring profound changes to the software and hardware of mobile phones, as well as your daily use and interaction. The new Ultra models that will be launched soon will be the first to be equipped with the latest AI technology achievements from mobile phone manufacturers.
In terms of AI deployment, older models may lag behind or even lack due to the performance and system support of the device. From this point of view, many people should focus on the achievements of the next batch of Ultra models in AI deployment and application, and it is logical to buy them as soon as possible.
If you are a price-sensitive user, you can usually take a look at some practical purchase suggestions, and we will teach you to use the most cost-effective and practical method to buy the most suitable products for yourself. If you're an early adopter, you should pay more attention to us. Because we will help you verify these cutting-edge technologies and solutions as soon as possible, whether they are easy to use and whether they are worth starting.