History repeats itself? The Japan Prime Minister's official residence and the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party were rammed, can the Liberal Democratic Party get "sympathy votes" for the election?

The process of the election of the House of Representatives by the political parties in Japan has not been smooth.

According to CCTV news reports, before 6 a.m. on the 19th, a man in his 40s drove into the fence outside the prime minister's residence after throwing Molotov cocktails at the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and was arrested on the spot.

The man drove a van and threw five items resembling Molotov cocktails at the LDP headquarters. Molotov cocktails hit a convoy parked in the compound of the LDP headquarters. No one was injured except for the damage to the vehicle. The man then drove to the Prime Minister's residence, 500 metres away, crashed into the guardrail in front of the Prime Minister's residence, and threw an object resembling a smoke pipe into the residence. Japan police arrested him on the spot for obstruction of official duties.

According to the investigation, the man's name is Atsunobu Usuda, 49 years old, who lives in Kawaguchi City, Saitama Prefecture. Police found several unused Molotov cocktails in the van he was driving. The man is currently silent about the motive for the incident. Police investigations are ongoing. At the time of the incident, Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was not at the Prime Minister's official residence and there were no casualties.

The current coincides with the preparation of Japan's political parties for the House of Representatives elections at the end of the month. According to the public plan, after the dissolution of the House of Representatives on the 15th, Shigeru Ishiba is scheduled to hold an election for the House of Representatives on October 27 in order to further consolidate his power.

Historical reenactment?

After the incident, a Chinese Japanese told CBN through social media that the prime minister's official residence and the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party are only about 500 meters away, which is the most serious incident against Japan's political hub in recent years, which is "really rare."

According to CCTV News, Atsunobu Usuda, who threw Molotov cocktails at the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party and stormed the prime minister's official residence, lives in Kawaguchi City, Saitama Prefecture. According to the people involved in the search, the person was wearing protective clothing at the time of the crime. In addition, this person has been involved in campaigns against the restart of nuclear power plants in the past. The Ministry of Public Security of the Metropolitan Police Department of Japan is investigating Usuda's motives and other activities.

In recent years, extreme violence has also begun to impact Japan's political scene. Among them, the most shocking was the attack on former Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during a street speech in Nara City in July 2022. At that time, Abe was killed in a speech when he was shot by a former member of the Self-Defense Army.

In April 2023, then Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also suffered a moment of horror while giving a street speech at the fishing port in Wakayama City. Before the speech, a man detonated a handmade bomb at the scene, and a loud explosion was heard at the scene, but fortunately Kishida himself was not injured.

It is worth noting that Kishida's near-assassination last year also coincided with Japan's 20th parliamentary election. Although the bombing did not affect the subsequent election process, Natsuo Yamaguchi, a representative of Japan's Komeito Party at the time, said that less than a year after the assassination of former Japan Prime Minister Abe, there was another incident of using explosives in Japan during the election, which was absolutely unacceptable.

In fact, according to public information, in the past 20 years, there have been few incidents of attacks on Japan politicians. Before Abe's assassination, the last Japan politician was shot back in 2007. On April 17 of that year, the then mayor of Nagasaki, Itcho Ito, returned to the campaign office near Nagasaki Central Station after finishing his mayoral campaign.

However, in recent years, data released by the Japan National Police Agency show that the incidence of criminal cases in Japan is gradually increasing. In 2023, Japan police will grasp more than 700,000 criminal cases nationwide, which is the second consecutive year that Japan has shown an increasing trend. In 2022, the Japan police recognized a total of 601,400 criminal cases throughout the year, an increase of 5.9% from 2021 and the first increase in 20 years.

Last year, a police survey showed that 67.1 percent of Japan respondents believed that "law and order had deteriorated," citing a number of criminal cases on trains and streets, as well as the shooting of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The Liberal Democratic Party suffers a "life-and-death battle" in 2012

The Chinese also said that in view of the current election stage of the political parties at the end of the month, this emergency has also tested the security and emergency response capabilities of the Japan police, and "everyone does not want history to repeat itself."

At the same time, he also stressed that the current election situation of the Liberal Democratic Party is not optimistic, and it remains to be seen whether this incident can attract the so-called "sympathy vote" for the Liberal Democratic Party.

According to Xinhua News Agency, a number of media in Japan predicted on the 17th that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Shigeru Ishiba's party, may not be able to win more than half of the seats alone in the House of Representatives election to be held at the end of this month. This time, Japan's political parties will compete for 465 seats, with a majority of 233 seats. Before the dissolution of the House of Representatives, the LDP held 256 seats, and the Komeito Party had 288 seats.

According to a poll conducted by Japan's Kyodo News and other media, the LDP may lose its position in the House of Representatives for the first time in 15 years, with a single majority of 233 seats. However, the LDP and its ruling ally, Komeito, are expected to continue to hold more than half of the seats.

For this House of Representatives election, Japan has 289 small constituencies and 11 proportional representation constituencies. According to the polls, LDP candidates have an advantage in only about half of all small constituencies; In proportional representation constituencies, the LDP's number of seats is expected to decrease. The election of Komeito is also not optimistic, and the number of seats won may also be reduced.

In small constituencies, voters vote directly for candidates, and the one with the most votes is elected; In proportional representation constituencies, voters vote for each party, and each party distributes seats in proportion to the number of votes it receives.

Regarding the LDP's poll, Xiang Haoyu, a distinguished researcher at the Asia-Pacific Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, believes that the main reason is that the "black gold" scandal will make the LDP's election in the current Japan House of Representatives election "extremely serious" and "the scandal is still fermenting." Moreover, Shi Pomao also faced the restraint of various forces within the party in the process of handling, and if it was handled too strictly, it would trigger a backlash within the party; The handling was too loose, and the people were not satisfied. As a result, the current situation will be the most difficult for Shigeru Ishiba and his LDP since 2012. ”

At present, the opposition parties are eyeing the House of Representatives election. The Constitutional Democratic Party, the largest opposition party, elected former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as its new leader at the end of September, almost at the same time as the LDP leadership election. The latter said that he would lead the party to prepare for the election and strive to achieve regime change. Noda has criticized Shigeru Ishiba's decision to hold an early election for "contempt of the Diet." The party's secretary-general, Jun Ogawa, also said earlier that "the dissolution of the House of Representatives is an attempt to put a lid on the 'black gold' issue, and it must not be allowed."

On October 9, the leaders of the four major opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Japan Restoration Association, and the Japan National Democratic Party, held talks and held a motion of no confidence against the Cabinet because the Ishiba Shigeru cabinet dissolved the House of Representatives without giving sufficient explanations on political and monetary issues, indicating that it regarded partisan interests as a priority.

The LDP suffered defeat in the House of Representatives by-election in April this year, and it also suffered a setback in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, which is considered a "precursor" to the House of Representatives election. In this House of Representatives election, the opposition parties will realistically aim to lose the majority of seats in the House of Representatives (DPP) and its allies, while the LDP will strive to maintain an "absolutely stable majority" (i.e., at least 261 seats, which can ensure that all standing committee chairmen of the House of Representatives will be held and a majority of the members of each committee will be appointed).

On the issues that are most concerned about the election at the end of the month, a Japanese media poll shows that 57% of respondents said they were concerned about the economy, employment and inflation, 38.4% mentioned the topic of pension and defense security, and 14.4% said that they continued to care about the follow-up of the "black gold scandal".

(This article is from Yicai)