Text: "Tsinghua Financial Review" Zhou Mingyi
According to preliminary calculations on October 18, 2024, the GDP in the first three quarters was 949746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. On the whole, the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters was stable and progressive, most of the production and demand indicators improved in September, market expectations improved, and the positive factors promoting the economic rebound have accumulated and increased.
On the morning of October 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2024. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics said that according to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first three quarters was 949746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. On the whole, the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters was stable and progressive, most of the production and demand indicators improved in September, market expectations improved, and the positive factors promoting the economic rebound have accumulated and increased.
According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first three quarters was 949746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 5,773.3 billion yuan, up by 3.4 percent year-on-year; the added value of the secondary industry was 361362 billion yuan, up by 5.4 percent; The added value of the tertiary industry was 530651 billion yuan, up by 4.7 percent. Quarterly, GDP grew by 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, 4.7 percent in the second quarter, and 4.6 percent in the third quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 0.9% in the third quarter.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 5,773.3 billion yuan, up by 3.4 percent year-on-year; the added value of the secondary industry was 361362 billion yuan, up by 5.4 percent; The added value of the tertiary industry was 530651 billion yuan, up by 4.7 percent. Quarterly, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, 4.7% in the second quarter and 4.6% in the third quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 0.9% in the third quarter.
The situation of agricultural production is relatively good, industrial production has grown steadily, and the service industry has continued to recover. In the first three quarters, the added value of agriculture (planting) increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The total output of summer grain and early rice in the country was 177.95 million tons, an increase of 3.46 million tons or 2.0 percent over the previous year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8 percent year-on-year. The output of new energy vehicles, integrated circuits and 3D printing equipment products increased by 33.8%, 26.0% and 25.4% respectively year-on-year. The added value of the service industry increased by 4.7% year-on-year.
Market sales maintained growth, and the scale of investment in fixed assets continued to expand. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods 353564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 378978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; Excluding investment in real estate development, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 7.7 percent.
The import and export of goods grew rapidly, and the trade structure continued to be optimized. In the first three quarters, the total import and export of goods 323252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Among them, exports were 186147 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2%; imports 137104 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1 percent. Imports and exports were offset, with a trade surplus of 4,904.3 billion yuan.
Consumer prices rose moderately, and the employment situation was generally stable. In the first three quarters, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first half of the year. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.5% year-on-year. The average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5.1 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year.
Household incomes continued to grow. In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 30,941 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.2 percent year-on-year, and a real growth of 4.9 percent after deducting price factors.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the mainland's economic operation in the first three quarters was generally stable and progressive, policy effects continued to appear, and the main economic indicators have recently seen positive changes. At the same time, it should also be noted that the external environment has become more complex and severe, and the foundation for economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. In the next stage, it is necessary to conscientiously implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, strengthen the synergy of stock policies and incremental policies, promote the accelerated implementation of various policies, and strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.
There were positive changes in the main economic indicators in September
The economy grew by 4.8 percent in the first three quarters, including 5.3 percent in the first quarter, 4.7 percent in the second quarter and 4.6 percent in the third quarter. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter continued the downward momentum since the second quarter, dragging down the GDP growth rate in the first three quarters by 0.2 percentage points compared with the first half of the year.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of the East, believes that the downward pressure on the economy has increased in the third quarter, mainly due to the continuous adjustment of the property market, the lack of effective domestic demand, and the weak consumption and private investment, which is also the reason for the introduction of the "package of incremental policies" at the end of September and the full force of the stable growth policy.
According to the macro analysis of China Merchants, due to the constraints on the production side caused by extreme weather and insufficient demand in July and August, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was lower than that in the second quarter; However, the marginal improvement of economic fundamentals in September, and the overall recovery of the equity market at the end of the third quarter boosted the added value of the financial industry, which helped the economic rebound.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment stabilized in the first three quarters
In the first three quarters, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 378978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, the same as that from January to August, ending the previous five consecutive months of downward process; Excluding investment in real estate development, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 7.7 percent. In September, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 0.65% month-on-month.
Sheng Laiyun pointed out that from the statistical point of view, in the first three quarters, the real estate policy still played a positive role in promoting the real estate to stop falling and stabilize. From January to September, the decline in real estate development investment was slightly narrower than that from January to August. In addition, the relevant departments of the central government support real estate enterprises to enhance liquidity, so the funds in place for real estate development enterprises this year, the decline from January to September is also narrowing, "so from these situations, we feel that the relevant policy effects of real estate are gradually released, and are promoting real estate to stop falling and stabilize in the direction of moving forward." ”
In terms of real estate, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, pointed out that real estate investment continues to pose a drag on domestic investment demand, and since the beginning of this year, the real estate downturn has exceeded expectations, with real estate investment shrinking for 27 consecutive months and maintaining double-digit contraction in recent months. However, the marginal improvement in the year-on-year growth rate of real estate fixed asset investment at the end of September, the hot performance of domestic property market sales in October, and the continuous increase in domestic property market stabilization policies indicate that domestic real estate has shown positive signs of stabilization after three years of adjustment.
Editor丨 Zhou Mingyi
Audit丨Ding Kaiyan
Editor丨Lan Yinfan
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