Since United States brazenly launched a trade war with China in 2018, "great power competition" has been the hottest topic in international public opinion, because it is easy to recall the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union in the last century. In fact, when describing the strategic game between China and the United States, the Western media are increasingly shy about using the "new Cold War" as a title. However, there are those who are afraid that the world will not be chaotic, and there is another force to hedge against it. According to the Observer, citing the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a United States think tank, released a report entitled "Sino-US Relations in the 2030s: Realistic Assumptions Towards Coexistence" released on the 17th of this month. The report analyzes and summarizes the possibility of "coexistence" between China and the United States from the economic, financial, and military fields.
In the economic sphere, the report argues that if China's economy is comparable in size to United States, United States will have to accept the reality of "coexistence", because the effectiveness of the strategies adopted by United States to contain China's economic development will gradually decay over time, and the marginal effect will force United States to face reality. In the financial sector, the report argues that the "internationalization of the renminbi" is not only not a flood beast, but can become a supplement to the dollar.
If the renminbi and the euro can become "auxiliary reserve currencies", while the US dollar remains the "main reserve currency", it can not only continue the existing international financial system, but also reduce the instability caused by the dollar. In the most critical area of the military, the report argues that the potential threat to the United States and the West from China's military development has been overstated. But what is more worrying than the military data on paper is the lack of strategic mutual trust between China and the United States, United States fears that "restraint will encourage China to use force to solve Taiwan problems", and China is worried that "restraint will encourage United States to further promote Taiwan independence".
Therefore, the report suggests that those in power in United States must redouble their efforts to ensure that they do not support "Taiwan independence" and strengthen United States' commitment to "one China." We have to admit that the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as a veteran think tank that has enjoyed a good reputation in Washington's strategic circles for many years, is indeed unique in its analysis of the current situation and future of Sino-US relations. However, even such a report, which is full of peace rhetoric, cannot be separated from "United States exceptionalism" and "Western-centrism." The main thrust of the report is still to build on the Western world with United States as the core, and it will remain in an unshakable and strong position in the world in the future.
The so-called "coexistence" is essentially United States "raising a noble hand" towards China. China will have to pay a price for this, such as allowing the "internationalization of the renminbi" to act as a "flood zone" for the dollar, and abandoning the option of "force of force" on the Taiwan issue. If such a report, which is full of unrealistic fantasies, is already the most friendly gesture that Washington's strategic circles can show toward China, one can imagine how many violent remarks the extreme China hawks will unleash on weekdays.
In fact, today's decision-making circles in Washington, whether hawks or doves on China, are using the experience of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union to apply the future of Sino-US relations, and the final conclusion is that "United States will win no matter what." The so-called rationalists only face up to the impact of China's rise, but in the end they still look at China-US relations from a condescending perspective, and do not accept the fact of China's rise from the heart, let alone accept that China can be on an equal footing with United States.
These facts also remind us once again that if the Chinese nation wants to stand tall among the nations of the world, it must abandon all illusions, still less pin its hopes on the "goodwill" of its opponents. Only by constantly weakening the foundation of United States' hegemony and allowing the other side to wake up from the dream of hegemony through repeated games can the two major powers avoid the worst outcome.