Yesterday, United States released another economic data, which broke the table again, what will the Fed do in November?
Since October, United States has released a number of economic data, all of which show that the economic situation is good and the job market remains strong. United States are caught in a huge contradiction, the United States election is important? Is the economy important? Or does China's policy matter?
Yesterday evening, the United States released a key monthly retail sales rate for September, commonly known as the "horror data."
Not surprisingly, this data has exploded again!
According to the data, retail sales in September United States increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline increased by 0.7% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations.
Retail sales rose just 0.1% month-on-month in August, so the data shows that the United States consumer market remains strong.
At the same time, data released by the United States Department of Labor showed that the number of first-time jobless claims last week was 241,000, a decrease of 17,000 compared with 258,000 last week!
Prior to this, the five economic data released in October: August job openings, September ADP employment, September non-farm payrolls, September unemployment rate and September CPI, all pointed to the same thing: there is no recession in the United States economy and the job market remains strong.
Yesterday's horrific data, with fewer first-time jobless claims, are two more magical data.
In recent months, frequent strikes in the United States, as well as hurricanes that swept through the southeastern states of the United States, the United States economy and people's lives are getting better and better.
Does this mean that the Democratic Party has opened up for the sake of the general election? The United States economy must prosper, jobs must be in good shape, and if the United States people believe it, they will vote for Harris in early November?
Or is it that United States people are frightened by the recent surge in Chinese assets and are trying to counter it with a pause in interest rate cuts by the dollar?
But no matter how amazing the data is, it is on the basis of these data that United States make important policy decisions about the US dollar interest rate.
This puts the Fed in a very awkward position, and if they just look at the economic data so good and employment so strong, they should raise interest rates in November, or at least pause their rate cuts.
Recently, a number of Fed executives have been speaking more and more cautiously, and they all expressed the same meaning: the dollar should cut interest rates cautiously, which is not good news, and it is likely that the Fed will end the rate cut early in November.
In addition to the Federal Reserve, another very embarrassed group is Wall Street, which has suffered the most severe financial stability in history.
A few days ago, Liu Mingdi, chief strategist of Asia and China equities at JPMorgan Chase, accidentally leaked the opportunity in an interview, and she said that the question now is how to transfer money to China.
On October 17, BlackRock also claimed that it would moderately increase its holdings in China's stock market because of signs of continuous fiscal strength. Just over a month ago, the CEO of BlackRock made a lot of nonsense, saying that China's stock market is not investable, isn't it painful to slap yourself in the face?
United States capital has to turn, but it is difficult to transfer money to China, which fully explains the extremely ambivalent mentality of Americans at present, and the United States election is important? Is the economy important? Or does China's policy matter? It's obviously hard to juggle these things.
Judging from the economic and employment data released since October, the Democratic Party is desperate to storm the election, and this shameless spirit is estimated to be clear to United States.
Therefore, the Fed can completely ignore them, the election is a fart, the United States economy is important, and China's policy is more important.
Based on a comprehensive analysis, we might as well boldly guess that there are three possibilities for the interest rate policy of the US dollar in November.
First, no interest rate cuts. This shows that Americans have chosen the most conservative and prudent strategy, barely balancing the United States economy and China policy.
Second, cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Either the United States economy isn't as good as they say it is, and employment isn't as strong as the data suggests. Either the Jewish consortium still insists on supporting the Democratic election, because the rate cut is after the election, and they will definitely take advantage of the propaganda in advance.
Third, another 50 basis point rate cut. Either Americans are crazy, or "the United States economy is not in recession, the job market is still strong", this is a blatant lie, in fact, the economy is very bad, and saving the United States economy is overwhelming.
In that case, the United States Congress would have to introduce laws to maintain financial stability, and it would be even more difficult for Wall Street money to come to China.
In fact, we don't expect them to figure it out all at once, and it may be better than anything else not to come to harm us.
Who will win the November election? What about the Fed? Now let's watch the show.