□ Wang Lin, a special analyst of this newspaper
Entering October, the domestic wheat market continued to rise, the policy storage is still exerting force, and the wheat supply is less to further promote the market rise, the grain and oil market newspaper special analysts expect that the wheat market will remain volatile and slightly slow in the short term. In the long run, under the situation of oversupply, the increase in wheat prices will still be limited, and it is recommended that market players reasonably control inventories according to their own conditions, and pay attention to the purchase rhythm of grain-using enterprises, market circulation and policy dynamics.
The momentum of price adjustment has slowed down, and the trend of rising and falling differentiation has emerged
Since the rebound of wheat prices at the end of September, the wheat market has maintained a volatile and strong operation trend recently. After several days of adjustment, the pace of price adjustment of some manufacturers has slowed down, and some manufacturers have even issued suspension notices or sporadically lowered the purchase price. As of October 15, the mainstream import price of Pumai net grain in the main producing areas is: Shandong 1.205 ~ 1.251 yuan / jin, Henan 1.22 ~ 1.249 yuan / jin, Hebei 1.218 ~ 1.233 yuan / jin, Anhui 1.235 ~ 1.248 yuan / jin, Jiangsu 1.23 ~ 1.245 yuan / jin. Compared with mid-to-late September, the center of gravity of wheat prices has moved up significantly, and the purchase price of individual manufacturers has exceeded 1.25 yuan/catty, which is at a relatively high level.
According to the analysis, the reasons for the recent rise in wheat prices are mainly as follows: first, with the autumn grain on the market one after another, the focus of attention of the grassroots subjects and traders in the main producing areas has begun to shift. Second, after the consumption of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, flour milling enterprises that have always maintained low inventories are also facing the demand for replenishment, and the demand has rebounded, so they have to adopt the strategy of raising prices and promoting quantity to alleviate the decline in volume in the short term; Third, the policy increase in reserves has added confidence to the market and provided support for the bottom of wheat prices. Of course, the tight supply and demand of wheat is the main factor for the price increase.
The auction of wheat from the central reserve has been suspended for more than five months since May 5, and the market is rumored to resume the auction in October. Although the wheat centralized market period has passed, but the current wheat market oversupply pattern has not changed, if the policy reserves increase the supply, wheat supply pressure is bound to increase again, it is recommended that the main body of grain to pay attention to market changes, reasonable control of inventory.
The demand is relatively single, and there are sporadic purchases in the production and marketing areas
After the National Day, domestic flour prices were mainly stable and weak, and the bran market strengthened. According to monitoring, as of October 15, the ex-factory price of special flour in flour processing enterprises in the main producing areas: 2760~2820 yuan/ton in Suzhou, Anhui Province, basically the same as in late September; Jiangsu Xuzhou 2800~2880 yuan/ton, Hebei Shijiazhuang 2800~2880 yuan/ton, Shandong Heze 2720~2800 yuan/ton, all stable and down 40 yuan/ton; Zhoukou, Henan Province is 2720~2800 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton in stability. The ex-factory price of mixed bran in the main producing areas: 1600 yuan/ton in Dezhou, Shandong, 1640~1680 yuan/ton in Suzhou, Anhui, up 80~100 yuan/ton from late September; Handan, Hebei 1560~1620 yuan/ton, up 60~100 yuan/ton; Shangqiu, Henan 1600~1680 yuan/ton, up 60~80 yuan/ton; Xuzhou, Jiangsu 1600~1660 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. After the end of the National Day holiday, the demand for flour market is slightly weak, and it may be difficult for the demand side to boost the wheat market in the long term.
Recently, grain depot enterprises in the production and marketing areas continue to purchase a small amount of bidding, which is conducive to the stability of wheat prices, but the number of purchases has dropped sharply compared with the previous period, which is expected to have a limited effect on wheat prices, and may be a better choice for some traders.
On October 11, Guangdong South China Grain Trading Center Co., Ltd. commissioned the purchase of 15,101 tons of third-class white wheat produced in Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Henan and Anhui in 2024, all of which were traded, with a reserve price of 2,600 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,580~2,590 yuan/ton (bulk, warehouse car plate delivery). On October 14, Guangdong Guangzhou Grain Group Co., Ltd. bid for the purchase of 7,200 tons of third-class white wheat produced in Shandong and Jiangsu in 2024, all of which were sold, with a reserve price of 2,620 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,590 yuan/ton (bulk, warehouse vehicle and ship board delivery). On October 15, the Grain and Material Reserve Center of Heshan City, Jiangmen, Guangdong Province commissioned the purchase of 4752.857 tons of second-class white wheat produced in Jiangsu, Shandong and Hebei in 2024, all of which were sold, with a reserve price of 2650 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2630 yuan/ton (bulk, stacked in the warehouse for delivery); Shandong Binzhou Grain and Material Reserve Group Co., Ltd. bid for the purchase of 3,000 tons of non-dried mixed wheat produced in Shandong in 2024, all of which were sold, and the transaction price was 2,460 yuan/ton.
Entering the fourth quarter, the wheat supply and demand environment improved slightly, but the demand was still relatively simple. From the perspective of the main demand, the price of corn is gradually stable, the market volume will continue to increase, and the purchase and sales of wheat are expected to continue to decrease; In addition, before the end of the year, the flour processing enterprises will replenish the warehouse and stock up the heat will rise, the operating rate will increase, and the terminal flour shipment may be accelerated, and there will be no major changes in the policy side, which will be good for wheat demand to a certain extent.
It is not easy to get out of the unilateral market
Although the domestic flour market consumption is weak, we should also see that the economic environment is slowly recovering and consumer demand is positively improving. The frequent ups and downs of the wheat market have made the main body of the market accustomed to it, due to the pessimism about the wheat market continues to shroud, many trade subjects in the wheat price rebound period have been shipped, so as not to lose or lose as little as possible, in the case of abundant annual supply of wheat, the price of more than the price is naturally facing a downward adjustment, but if the price is too low, the main body of grain sales is reluctant to sell wait-and-see sentiment again, circulation declines, and promotes price increases.
Special analysts of grain and oil market report believe that the wheat market in the fourth quarter ushered in the traditional demand season, and in the future, under the expectation that the wheat market will "have a top and a bottom", flour milling enterprises may dominate the wheat market trend. The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicts that the national wheat supply and demand balance in 2024/2025 will be 18.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.57 million tons, an increase of 33.9%. In view of the fact that the wheat market is still in a pattern of oversupply, it is not easy for wheat to get out of the unilateral market.
Weather threat concerns Global wheat prices edged higher
Global wheat prices have risen recently as wheat production in some major exporting countries faces weather threats and future wheat export supplies from Russia and Ukraine are likely to shrink sharply. As of Oct. 11, Chicago Board of Trade December soft red winter wheat futures closed at about $5.99/bushel, up 1.6% from a week ago.
The United States Department of Agriculture's October supply and demand report lowered the forecast for global wheat production in 2024/2025 by 2.8 million mt to 794.08 million mt, exports by 700,000 mt to 215.82 million mt, and wheat ending stocks in major exporters approached 30 million mt, down 23.7% year-on-year. The stock-to-use ratio was 8.9%, well below the 11.3% recorded in 2023/2024. The data suggests that the global wheat supply situation is likely to become tight.