Tian Zhongfang, senior reporter of The Paper
Gold prices hit another all-time high.
On October 17, Wind data showed that the price of spot gold (London gold spot, the same below) broke through the high of $2,685.58 per ounce set in September, and rose as high as $2,685.73 per ounce, hitting a record high.
As of press time, spot gold prices rose above $2,680 an ounce to $2,680.99 an ounce after a surge higher.
In terms of the futures market, Wind data shows that COMEX gold futures also rose rapidly intraday on October 17, once rising to a high of $2,701 per ounce, hitting the $2,700 mark for two consecutive days. As of press time, COMEX gold futures were trading at a high of $2,698.2 per ounce.
Since September, COMEX gold futures have risen by more than $170 in this round of rise, an increase of 6.73%.
In the domestic futures market, driven by the rise in gold prices in the external market, as of the close of Thursday (October 17), the main 2412 contract of Shanghai gold was reported at 614.26 yuan / gram, up 1.11%, up 1.11%, as high as 615.16 yuan / gram.
In addition, the closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange "Shanghai Gold" as of October 17 also rose. Among them, the closing price of Shanghai gold Au99.99 contract was 612.66 yuan/gram, and the highest price was 613.5 yuan/gram; AU99.95 contract closed at 611.12 yuan/gram, with the highest price at 612.0 yuan/gram; The closing price of the Au100g contract was 611.15 yuan/gram, and the highest price was 613.0 yuan/gram.
In terms of jewelry gold prices, after phased adjustments, they have now returned to the previous high and risen to 790 yuan/gram.
According to data from the Shanghai Gold Jewelry Industry Association, on October 17, in terms of pure gold prices, Lao Fengxiang reported 789 yuan/gram, Lao Miao reported 793 yuan/gram, China Gold reported 793 yuan/gram, and Chow Tai Fook reported 793 yuan/gram.
For the continued rise in gold prices, analysts say that it is mainly driven by the dual drive of currency attributes and safe-haven attributes. On the one hand, global central banks have cut interest rates one after another, and the expansion of balance sheets is expected to strengthen the monetary properties of precious metals. On the other hand, central banks have alternately increased their holdings of gold, and the superimposed safe-haven attribute has brought more bullish support to precious metals.
Oriental Jincheng Research Report pointed out that last week's rebound in United States inflation expectations, coupled with weaker employment data, led to a stable recovery in gold prices. Gold prices are likely to move in a narrow range this week (week of October 14). However, in the medium term, the current slow decline in United States inflation, the market's expectation of another expansion of the United States debt cycle, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have not cooled, and the safe-haven demand is bullish on gold prices, and gold prices still have some room to rise.
According to the analysis of open source securities, October is a key month before the United States election, and overseas investors may once again play games on the expectations of the election results and the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In December, the test window for the Fed to cut interest rates appeared, and the market was more sensitive to the data on the weakening of the economy, considering that the rate of interest rate decline is still slow (100BP is expected during the year), there may be a possibility that the soft landing of the economy may be falsified, and the market is trading quickly to cool the economy. Therefore, gold still has a buying point from October to November, and the gold price may still have a second-stage upward trend in 2025H1.
Zhengxin Futures said that in the context of rising expectations of a soft landing in the United States economy, the dollar index and U.S. bond interest rates continued to fluctuate and rebound, the dollar index hit a new high in the past two months, breaking through the 103.5 integer mark, and the price of COMEX gold futures fluctuated in the range of $2650 / ounce to $2700 / ounce.
"The short-term dollar index has rebounded to an important technical pressure level near 104, and the focus on the financial attributes of precious metals after the blocked pullback may drive further gains." Zhengxin Futures said.
In terms of risk aversion, Huatai Futures said that although the Fed's monetary policy is still restrictive, it seems to be different from Powell's previous remarks about a weakening attitude towards inflation control. However, gold prices remain strong for now, driven by geopolitical factors.
"In the current situation of geopolitical factors and economic outlook, precious metals are still worth allocating." Huatai Futures pointed out.
It is worth mentioning that analysts said that looking ahead, precious metals denominated in RMB are expected to further open up upside under the triple bullishness.
"Since the beginning of August, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has entered the interest rate cut cycle, precious metals have ushered in a round of rising markets driven by the resonance of financial, monetary and safe-haven attributes. However, since the downturn in September, as the United States economic inflation, employment and service PMI have shown some resilience, the US Treasury interest rate and the US dollar index have rebounded, and financial attributes have restrained further rises. Zhengxin Futures analysis said.
Zhengxin Futures pointed out that since late September, China's macro incremental policy has been introduced, and the loose currency, fiscal and loose real estate have comprehensively increased to promote stable economic growth, expand domestic demand, and reduce risks, and the core behind the package is still to solve the current economic contradictions through fiscal monetization, the balance sheet of the Central Bank of China is expected to further expand, the loose fiscal is expected to curb the downward trend of prices, and the downward trend of nominal and real interest rates provides financial attributes.
"The expectation of a stable recovery in real estate has repaired the industrial attributes of precious metals, and the triple bullish may open up the upside of RMB-denominated precious metals. Shanghai gold prices are bullish for a long time, and investors are advised to hold longs. Zhengxin Futures further pointed out.
In addition to gold, the future performance of silver, which is also a precious metal, is also bullish by institutions. Zhengxin Futures said that the recovery of industrial demand is expected to drive a sharp increase in silver prices as the expectation of a soft landing for the United States economy is realized. Therefore, it is recommended that investors take a pullback and long strategy to participate in silver in the short term.
Senior editor of this issue: Zhou Yuhua