Source: NetEase News
On the evening of October 11, Xiao Lin (pseudonym), an investor in a first-tier city in China, liquidated the Tesla put options she held just after the U.S. stock market opened. This brought her almost 400% of the benefits.
On that day, Tesla held Robotaxi Day. On the first trading day after the event, Tesla shares closed down 8.78% at $217.8, the biggest drop in the Magnificent 7.
On the other side of the ocean, Musk's war with the bears has been going on for 11 years.
In 2013, Andrew ·, the "killer of Chinese concept stocks" and the founder of Cineutron Capital, was the first well-known bears to launch a charge against Tesla. Since then, from retail investors who dared to drive into Model 3s to Bill · Gates, the former richest man in the world, have joined this camp.
Their attacks on Musk have been varied: describing Musk's promises as "horse manure", organizing drone swarms to probe inside Tesla, and even cursing Musk to prison......
How did Musk and Tesla respond to the offensive?
Go short, just before the gala
Xiao Lin, who has been buying Tesla stock since 2020, bought put options the day before Robotaxi Day.
It takes courage to make this investment decision.
Deutsche Bank, which has long given Tesla a "neutral" rating, made a rare move to "buy" on September 10 and listed it as a top pick in the auto industry.
Cathie Wood, a well-known long-term "wooden sister" of Tesla, said that in the next 5 to 10 years, the self-driving taxi market has the opportunity to bring Tesla $4 trillion to $5 trillion in revenue.
In addition to Robotaxi, Wall Street is also looking forward to another star product taking the stage at the event.
Deepwater Management分析师Gene Munster预测,Model Q也可能在这次活动中亮相。
The $25,000 budget model is seen by Wall Street as the key to Tesla's further market share. In April, Musk released that the Model Q is expected to start production in early 2025 or even later this year.
马斯克本人也为Robotaxi Day极尽造势之能。
In September, he took to social media to declare that it would be a day that would go down in history. One user called Robotaxi Day the most important moment for Tesla since the release of the Model 3, to which Musk replied in the affirmative: "In my opinion, yes."
However, Xiao Lin was not disturbed and swayed by these sounds.
The judgment that autonomous driving is difficult to achieve, coupled with the "disk sense" trained by the investment experience in the past four years, she firmly believes that there is an opportunity for Tesla, which holds the event, to short.
In anticipation, the event was delayed by nearly an hour. Nineteen minutes after Musk took the stage to speak, the event came to an abrupt halt.
Disappointment is the general evaluation of Robotaxi Day in the market.
"That's all? Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas had hoped to get an update on the performance of the FSD system, strategic plans for ride-sharing services, and Tesla's partnership with artificial intelligence company xAI, but those expectations were not met.
Analysts at investment banks such as Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase also expressed their dissatisfaction after the event.
After selling the put option, Xiao Lin posted her record of shorting Tesla on social media.
How many more silent bears, snickering outside the spotlight?
The most profitable short targets
In May 2019, the Thorne Investment Conference was held in New York. At the largest and most prestigious conference in the global hedge fund community, Greenlight Capital founder David · Einhorn pointed to a PPT with Musk's face in public and said, "This is a lot of horseshit." "
This PPT is also printed with Musk's commitment to Tesla's self-driving.
Einhorn was not a hot-tempered man. On the contrary, in the eyes of employees, he is a boss who never gets angry, likes to attribute the company's performance to the team, and is passionate about philanthropy. Wall Street sees Einhorn as one of the iconic bears. In 2008, he made $1 billion by shorting Lehman Brothers.
David · Einhorn Source: Social media
The reason for his grudge with Musk is also shorting.
In October 2017, Einhorn told investors that Tesla's "supposed market leadership" in areas such as autonomous driving was more likely to reflect a willingness to put dangerous, undertested products on the road than a real technological advantage.
He also believes that Tesla is at risk of manufacturing shortages, product defects, and recalls. Even before this statement, he had already started shorting Tesla.
At that time, Musk, who was in production hell, did not immediately respond to Einhorn's remarks. Until August 2018, after achieving his goal of producing 5,000 Model 3s a week and making Tesla a "real car company", Musk sent a box of shorts to Einhorn to mock his short-selling behavior. (Editor's note: both short and shorts are short)
After receiving the shorts, Einhorn responded that Musk is a man of his word, but "they do have some manufacturing problems." Einhorn didn't say whether "they" meant the shorts or the Model 3.
He's also brewing his own counterattack.
Soon after coming out of the production capacity hell, Musk immediately fell into the delivery hell. In Q1 2019, Tesla delivered 63,000 vehicles, down 31% month-on-month. In April, Einhorn said in a letter to shareholders that Tesla's cars were "wheels are dropping" and that its "exaggerated description" of self-driving capabilities was intended to distract investors from demand issues.
Musk quickly countered with actions.
In April 2019, Tesla said at the Self-Driving Investor Day that driverless cars will reshape people's lives and help Tesla achieve huge profits.
After this event, the scales of victory began to tilt in Musk's favor. Walter ·Isaacson, author of "Musk's Biography", said that convincing investors that Tesla will become the world's most valuable company is one of the reasons why Musk held the "Self-driving Investor Day".
In the same year, Tesla launched its first self-developed self-driving chip, HW3.0, and allowed some owners to try out the initial version of FSD.
The improvement of autonomous driving capabilities, together with the opening of the Shanghai Gigafactory and the increase in deliveries, pushed up Tesla's stock price. From June 2019 to December 2020, Tesla's stock price rose by more than 1,800%.
In November 2019, Musk publicly shouted at Einhorn, saying that he had made many false accusations against Tesla, and these false accusations were Einhorn's means to save face in the face of the fact that the assets under his management have shrunk by two-thirds.
"Finally, allow us to give you a pair of shorts as a small gift to help you through this difficult time."
But this partial victory did not dispel the bears hovering above Tesla's head, and the bears' doubts about Tesla's autonomous driving have never subsided.
In 2022, Tesla's stock price fell by more than 65% for the year. According to data from financial data agency S3 Partners, the decline in Tesla's stock price allowed the bears to gain a total of about $17 billion that year, making Tesla the most profitable short target of the year.
In July last year, Jim · Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, who began shorting Tesla in 2016 and is known as "Dr. Doom" on Wall Street, said that the value of Tesla's FSD in the retail market could be close to zero.
There is no end to the war
In the camp of Tesla bears, the most valuable member is not on Wall Street.
In April 2022, Musk broke the news on social media that he heard from TED (a non-profit organization) that Bill ·, the former richest man in the world, held a $500 million short position in Tesla. This made him very angry, and even if the other party apologized, it was difficult to calm his emotions.
Gates is bullish on autonomous driving, and his reason for shorting Tesla is that the electric vehicle market will be oversupplied, causing prices to fall. "Musk's biography" wrote that Gates lost $1.5 billion at one point because of this.
In 2015, Musk and Bill · Gates attended the Boao Forum for Asia together Source: "Musk's Biography"
Because of the "old feud" between the two, in mid-April 2022, Gates sent Musk a charity project document written by himself, but the latter's reply was only one sentence: "Are you still holding a short position in Tesla of $500 million?" "
In Musk's eyes, every $1 invested in most philanthropy has an impact of only 20 cents. Bill · Gates can do more good for climate change by investing in Tesla.
Musk has written his vision of improving the climate and even changing the world into his "Grand Plan 3.0", and he has mapped out a sustainable energy path that can support the survival of more than 8 billion people.
It's a path that no one has ever walked in the entire history of the automotive industry, and there are no signpoints.
An auto analyst from a foreign investment bank told Snow Leopard Finance that since its inception, Tesla has been climbing the technology cycle, which is more uncertain than the cost cycle of traditional car companies, so there are more opportunities for shorting.
In order to win, the bears show their talents. In order to obtain Tesla's internal data, someone organized ground forces and drone swarms to explore the situation of Tesla's factory. A Tesla short-seller named Randeep · Hotty even deliberately drove into a driving Model 3.
In April 2021, Hotty cursed: "Tesla has no value, Musk will end up in jail." "That year, Musk became the richest man in the world.
Musk firmly believes that Tesla can completely crush the bears with weapons such as autonomous driving in the future.
At the shareholders' meeting held in June this year, Musk said that Robotaxi will bring $500 million to $10 trillion to the company's market capitalization, and with the addition of Optimus robots, Tesla's total market value will eventually reach 10 times that of Apple, more than $30 trillion.
In July of this year, Musk fired again on social media: once Tesla completely solves the problem of self-driving and realizes the mass production of the Optimus robot, anyone with short positions will be eliminated, even Bill · Gates.
At Robotaxi Day, Musk gave a phased goal to destroy the shorts' plans: Tesla's CyberCab, a driverless taxi, is expected to be produced in 2026.
However, given that bounce tickets have become part of Musk's personal image, this timing is not without variables.
Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, has said that Tesla looks promising, but Musk's consistent style makes the promise less credible.
There is no end in sight to this war.