1. This week's market review:
Stimulated by the policy before the holiday, the market rose rapidly, and the policy after the holiday was less than expected, and the market adjusted sharply and weakened. In terms of commodity futures, commodities rose more and fell less this week, with crude oil and fuel oil leading the market this week, and soda ash leading the decline.
In terms of sub-sectors, the energy and chemical sector has the strongest trend this week, with crude oil rising sharply during the National Day holiday, crude oil following the rise after the holiday, and under the disturbance of the situation in the Middle East, crude oil futures also remained strong. The chemical industry is driven by crude oil to follow the upward trend, but the rally is weaker than that of the energy system. In general, the energy and chemical sector has a strong trend this week. The non-ferrous sector also performed well this week, as United States core inflation exceeded expectations, gold rebounded again, extending its strength.
Among other non-ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc and other varieties of fundamentals performed better, although this week's macro sentiment has been repeated, but the basic face of the price also has a certain driving effect. The trend of the black plate this week is different, black commodities opened higher on Tuesday and then lower, finished materials and furnace materials fell slightly less than building materials, the overall slight rise, building materials in the case of excess fundamentals fell greater. In the agricultural sector, oils and fats were strongly supported by crude oil, while oilseeds were weaker due to rainfall in Brazil's soybean producing areas, which is expected to alleviate the impact of drought. White sugar has also been affected by the improved weather in Brazil, coupled with the abundant supply of domestic sugar sources, which has put sugar prices under pressure.
2. Market operation strategy for next week:
Financial: From the index level, the current policy is still in the intensive policy introduction window period, positive policy expectations are still there, the rebound after the shock adjustment is expected to continue, the general rise stage is over, the market will show a structural market in the future, and the probability of technology growth style taking over is large.
Black: The pressure on the fundamentals still exists, limiting the rebound space of the black series, but the current strength of fiscal policy is still very important, and if it exceeds expectations in the later stage, it can still change market expectations, and it is expected that the market will be dominated by shocks next week. Glass soda ash is expected to be weak in the case of high inventories and production.
Non-ferrous metals and new energy: the base metal sector is expected to maintain strong copper, aluminum and zinc prices are expected to remain strong, and the fundamentals are expected to play a supporting role in the price, and the supply disturbance of lead and nickel itself is not prominent, and the upside is expected to be limited. The new energy sector maintains the logic of production capacity clearance unchanged, and is expected to return to weak shocks. The precious metals sector is still optimistic about the medium and long-term trend of gold, and gold still has allocation value in the context of interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts.
Energy and chemical industry: Crude oil price fluctuations are still highly dependent on the progress of the situation in the Middle East, which is highly unpredictable, and volatility is expected to amplify, so you can pay attention to the opportunity to long volatility. Downstream chemicals are expected to be passively affected by the cost side, and the relative rise and fall is not as good as that of crude oil.
Agricultural products: It is expected that the trend of meal may stop falling and stabilize next week. At present, oils and fats mainly follow the macro market and crude oil trends, and may be volatile in the short term. White sugar is still in a pattern of oversupply, and this round of rebound may be biased towards the end.
3. Economic calendar for next week
Author: Soochow Futures Research Institute
Editors: Zhang Shu, Li Ang
Producer: Gu Jie