Text: Steamed buns
Editor|Jiang Yuchi
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preface
Now the changes in the international community are really becoming more and more complicated, and the two fronts around Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East are constantly spreading, and the scope of influence is also increasing.
The International Criminal Court had earlier issued an arrest warrant for Putin, but no one has dared to do so internationally, but recently Brazil seems to have an opportunity to do so.
Brazil is going to hold the G20 summit, and Putin will logically participate, but this time Putin may be absent, is he afraid? Does Brazil really have the guts to arrest Putin?
Absence, starting with an arrest warrant
Putin's absence from the G20 summit was triggered by an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. In March, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for "illegal deportation of Ukraine children."
Although Russia has firmly denied this, this arrest warrant is like a "sword of Damocles" hanging over Putin's head, making every foreign visit full of variables.
Naturally, Ukraine will not let go of this "opportunity". After learning that Putin might attend the G20 summit, the Ukraine government immediately pressured the Brazil, the host of the summit, to Brazil arrest Putin on the basis of an ICC warrant.
Although anyone with a discerning eye knows that the possibility of Brazil arresting Putin is slim, this undoubtedly casts a shadow over Putin's road to participation.
For Putin, the ICC arrest warrant may be only a superficial reason for his absence from the G20 summit. The deeper reason, I am afraid, is the concern about the G20 summit itself.
The 2022 G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, left a deep impression on Putin, or rather, an unpleasant memory.
At that summit, the United States and Western countries used the Ukraine issue to attack Russia, turning a summit that was supposed to focus on global economic governance into a "criticism conference" against Russia.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky even "participated remotely" through video connection, blaming Russia at the summit, turning the summit into a stage for Russia and Ukraine to "shout in the air".
With the experience of the Bali summit, Putin is worried that his attendance at the G20 summit in Brazil may lead to a similar situation again, when the G20 summit may once again become a "political show" for the United States and Western countries to attack Russia.
If the G20 summit really becomes a "political arena", it will be worth the loss for Putin and for Russia. Rather than risk being "humiliated" for a summit that is destined to be full of gunpowder, it is better to simply choose to be absent and take the initiative into your own hands.
Absence is also a statement
Putin's absence from the G20 summit is actually showing with his actions that Russia will not succumb to international pressure, let alone recognize the "political manipulation" of the International Criminal Court, so it can be regarded as "ignoring" the ICC arrest warrant.
Moreover, in recent years, the United States and Western countries have been trying to use various international occasions to isolate Russia, and the G20 summit is no exception.
Putin's choice to miss the G20 summit is actually to show the United States and Western countries that Russia will not sit idly by, let alone be at the mercy of the United States and Western countries.
With the changes in the international landscape, the influence of the countries of the "Global South" in international affairs has become increasingly prominent. Putin's choice to be absent from the G20 summit is also partly to avoid a head-on conflict with the countries of the "Global South" at the summit, so as to maintain Russia's relations with these countries.
The future of the G20: Cooperative or divided?
Putin's absence has cast a shadow over the G20 summit and put a big question mark on the future of the G20.
As one of the most important forums for international economic cooperation in the world today, the G20 was established to respond to the global economic crisis and promote international economic cooperation.
However, in recent years, as geopolitics has heated up, it has become increasingly difficult for the G20 summit to get rid of the trend of "politicization".
Within the G20 summit, the contradictions between Western countries led by United States and emerging economies represented by Russia and China have become increasingly prominent.
Western countries try to use the platform of the G20 summit to impose their own values and ideologies on other countries, while emerging economies advocate safeguarding national sovereignty and development interests and oppose interventionism by Western countries.
The G20 summit is becoming a "barometer" of the international community's cooperation and division. If member states can find common ground while reserving differences and strengthen cooperation, the G20 summit can still play an important role in solving global problems.
However, if all parties continue to view each other as a "zero-sum game", the G20 summit may eventually become a "political show" or even a divide.
The impact of absence: G20 dilemmas and challenges
Putin's absence, of course, has given Russia room for maneuver, but it has also brought new difficulties and challenges to the G20 summit.
Because Russia, as one of the world's major economies, has important influence in energy, food and other fields. Putin's absence means that the G20 summit will lack an important "player" when discussing global issues, which will undoubtedly reduce the representativeness and efficiency of the summit.
And there have long been divisions within the G20 summit between Western countries and countries with emerging economies. Putin's absence undoubtedly gives Western countries an opportunity to "isolate" Russia, and also makes it more difficult for the G20 summit to reach a consensus, and may even become a tool for Western countries to "say a word".
As an important platform for global economic governance, the effective operation of the G20 summit requires mutual trust and cooperation among member states.
However, in recent years, with the intensification of geopolitical competition, the trust deficit in the international community has widened, and the willingness to cooperate has been declining, which undoubtedly casts a shadow over the future of the G20 summit.
Unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise in the international arena, geopolitical competition is intensifying, global challenges are emerging one after another, the world economic recovery is sluggish, and the international security situation is turbulent.
In the face of the complex international situation, no country can stand alone, and only solidarity and cooperation are the only way to meet the challenges.
As one of the most important platforms for cooperation in the international community, the G20 Summit should shoulder its due responsibilities and promote all parties to strengthen dialogue, enhance mutual trust, seek common ground while reserving differences, and overcome difficulties together.
Member States should abandon the Cold War mentality and zero-sum game mentality, uphold true multilateralism, uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core, and promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.
Conclusion: G20, where is the road?
Putin's empty chair is a regret of the G20 summit and a warning to the international community. The future of the G20 depends on the choices and actions of its members.
The G20 summit has a long way to go. It is hoped that all member states will put global interests and human well-being first, and work together to promote the development of the G20 summit in the right direction and contribute to building a better world.
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Information sources:
Beijing Daily client 2024-10-16 Ukraine shouts to Brazil: arrest Putin
CCTV News 2024-10-18 Russian President Vladimir Putin: Will not go to Brazil to participate in the G20 leaders' summit