Recently, there has been a subtle change in the situation in the Middle East, and the Western media have said that after the Allah Party leader Nasrallah and his No. 1 and No. 2 successors were killed, no one dares to take over the position of the next supreme leader, so there is a situation, the attitude of the Allah Party has changed, and the deputy general secretary of the Allah Party, Naem · Kassem, made a video speech saying that the Allah Party supports the ceasefire mediation and no longer regards the Gaza ceasefire as a precondition, but if Israel chooses to continue the war, then the battlefield will be clear. Is Allah really being subjugated by Israel? The arc of resistance is beginning to split?
Let's start with what do you mean? That is, Allah said that it wants to negotiate with Israel and no longer demand Israel's ceasefire in Gaza as a binding condition, which in the Western media's understanding means that Hezbollah no longer cares about Hamas, as long as Israel can cease fire in Lebanon. To put it bluntly, Allah was beaten to its knees, the arc of resistance was divided, and each took care of itself.
So is that really the case? Personally, I feel that this should be the speculation of the Western media, why is Allah willing to abandon the conditions of the Gaza ceasefire and negotiate with Israel? There are three main intentions: first, the leadership of Allah has almost been wiped out by Israel, and it needs time to re-elect a new leadership, and negotiations are the best buffer time; Second, the call for negotiations this time is a friend of Allah, and Nabi · Berri, speaker of the Lebanon National Assembly, is promoting, Allah needs to give him face, but also to explain to the people in Lebanon, show the sincerity of negotiations, and do not want Lebanon to be bombed by Israel to kill more civilians; The third is to show the world the sincerity of negotiations, highlight Israel's intention not to negotiate but actually want to occupy territory, and let the United States and Israel bear more moral pressure.
In fact, there is a more important meaning, and there is no way to say the intention, that is, Lebanon Allah does not want the United States and Israel to aim all their firepower at themselves now, and should go to Iran, the big brother of the arc of resistance, to settle the account, he is at most a helper, the role of the younger brother, how can the United States and Israel rush the fire at Lebanon Allah? Iran is unwilling to go all out, and Allah will certainly not be able to bear it.
To put it bluntly, Iran is the big brother of the arc of resistance, Allah, Hamas, Houthis and other civilian armed forces are just helpers, if in order to survive, the big brother is not fully ended, the little brother in order to protect himself, can only abandon the other little brothers, in fact, indirectly is forcing Iran to end in an all-round way, come to the forefront, the little brother is beaten, the big brother does not take action? Do you still expect the younger brothers to protect each other? So what do you want your big brother to do?
So what is Iran doing now? Hard once waiting for Israel to retaliate? To put it bluntly, it is to fight Israel once for the sake of face, waiting for revenge. As I said last time, the current strategy of the United States and Israel is to take advantage of Iran's psychology that it does not dare to come out easily, gradually cut off the forces of Iran's junior brothers, and then take out Iran.
What about Iran? The situation is already critical, and if Allah cannot withstand the pressure, with pressure from its own party, the Lebanon government and the people, and really succumbs to negotiations and no longer cares about Hamas, then the arc of resistance in the Middle East led by Iran may collapse, and Iran will really become the commander of the light pole. Therefore, I personally said last time that Iran should abandon all illusions, stop thinking about the little brother to take care of the little brother, really stand up, be a big brother, lead the little brother to fight the United States and Israel, even if it is to send troops to fight on Lebanon territory, so that it is possible to give Russia confidence and get more anti-hegemonic resources.
It is not wrong to let the enemy fall into the quagmire of civilian armed siege, but after a year of war, the United States and Israel have changed their tactics and adopted various breakthroughs to fight a war of annihilation. At this time, Iran will also change its tactics, it is time to lead the little brother to fight a siege war, and the United States and Israel are now afraid of this. #Can Israel afford a long war of attrition#