Investors choose Shangxiang in their work and progress.
A few weeks ago, as soon as the news of delayed retirement was released, investors' circle of friends exploded first.
Some investors reposted the news and asked, "Will I be able to find a job then?" ”
"At the age of 60, I talked with the local government about attracting investment, 'Leaders, please rest assured, we have accumulated more than 40 years of investment experience in this regard'. It can fit the characteristics of the local industry, ensure the landing of the enterprise, and the enterprise has undertaken major projects! There are even academicians in charge. ”
Investors' complaints also highlight the anxiety about the current market uncertainty.
Interestingly, there is a term in the market - stock anxiety disorder, which is specifically manifested in the face of shrinking stock market funds, many shareholders have fear, insomnia, irritability, depression and other symptoms, and the process of stock anxiety can be divided into excitement, fanaticism, greed, fear, worry and anxiety. In our stock market, it is not difficult to see stockholders who do not think about tea and dinner, do not sleep, have bloodless faces, and are mentally decadent, which are all high-risk groups who are prone to or prone to anxiety disorders.
Today, this anxiety has spread to the primary market.
"Every day when I wake up, I am irritable, and my friends around me have either cut their salaries or have no jobs, and I don't know what I want to do in the future? So I went to Xiaohongshu to search and found that many people were asking related questions, such as what can I do after losing my job in fund operation? As a result, some people replied that they couldn't turn anything, and they were even more annoyed after reading it. Zhang Qing complained to the reporter in Rongzhong.
"It's annoying, but you still have to find a way."
What is the way out?
"Eleven successively went to Lama Temple, Tanzhe Temple, Jietai Temple, and Baiyun Temple."
Investors choose Shangxiang in their work and progress.
The confusion of the insider
Investors choose Shangxiang in their work and progress
"This industry is too volatile, and I feel that all the most capable elites are investors." Lu Yi complained, "I heard a colleague say that she went to the Lama Temple on the eleventh day, and also changed the fundraising report in the southeast corner, and the main wealth." ”
"I used to think that the investment industry could be done for a long, long time, and the older I get, the more popular it is, but now I find that there is no essential difference between this job and a 9-to-5 part-time worker, but the glory of the industry in the past makes me feel that I am 'different'." Lu Yi said bluntly. "We took TS to chat with entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs on the front line of the industry, ran around the airport and high-speed rail station every day, and when we had money, we boldly asked the company to make a price, but in the end, we found that we didn't make any money, and the pressure was not small."
In the past, the cases of sky-high returns in the industry seemed to be "only heard but never seen".
According to the "Analysis Report on VC/PE Fund Buyback and Exit" released by Refinn Law Firm, as of the end of 2022, the average number of exit cases of PE funds accounted for about 50% of the investment volume, while the average number of exit cases of VC funds was about 30% of the investment number. The ratio of investment to exit in the private equity market is unbalanced.
According to the statistics of the past five years, based on the ratio of the actual withdrawal amount to the exit principal of the surviving funds at the end of each year, the return rate of the PE fund is about 1.39 times, and the average investment period is 39.21 months, while the return rate of the VC fund is about 2.34 times, and the average investment period is 42.28 months. In other words, although the projects that have been withdrawn are already among the lucky ones among many private equity investment projects, in terms of overall returns, the rate of return is not much higher than the loan interest rate in the same period, which is quite different from the "high-risk, high-return" attribute of private equity investment.
Correspondingly, in private equity investment funds, the actual exit amount obtained by investors is only about 31.80% of the amount of their capital contribution; In other words, as of the end of 2022, for every 1 million yuan invested by private equity investors in China, the actual exit amount was only 318,000 yuan, which can also corroborate each other with the market phenomenon that the DPI of a large number of funds has not returned to positive, or even less than 0.5. In comparison, the data for United States equity investment funds for the same period was about 148.7%.
The actual exit amount of domestic private equity fund investors is about 31.80% of their capital contribution (148.7% in the same period in United States), which is also the root cause of the sustainability of the domestic private equity investment market.
As insiders, investors are also looking for an answer, how to become a VC boss? A case to earn "wealth freedom"?
In fact, the iteration of the primary market is rapid, and it is only 5 or 6 years for a track to go from rising to normal, and the investment theme is constantly changing, and it is not easy for investors to grasp an outlet.
Taking semiconductors as an example, the opening of the science and technology innovation board and the rise of the technology industry have suddenly heated up the track led by semiconductors, and investors who have invested in it before have harvested a number of IPO projects.
However, with the passage of time, it is difficult to find cheap projects and top projects, which makes this group of investors fall into the trap of "how to find the next high-return project".
Some insiders have questioned whether VC makes money by cycles or personal judgment? In fact, if you want to invest in a super IPO, you do need luck.
But only those who have the power of judgment have the ability to seize luck.
Luck is very rational for investors. Rongzhong previously reported that at one time, the Costa café at the gate of Lama Temple became a stronghold for many investors. On the one hand, I can talk to the founders about the project and the valuation, and on the other hand, I can also get lucky.
"We chatted in the company's small group before the holiday, and where to go to incense is more effective."
Zhang Qing and her colleagues were busy planning their trips, "October 3 happened to be the first day of the new year, and I went to Tanzhe Temple and Jietai Temple in Mentougou. On the fifth day of the first month, I went to Baiyun Temple. ”
Walking to relieve the pressure of work, while praying for a smooth career, this may be the best travel route for every "middle-aged office worker".
"In Beijing, Baiyun Temple is a hidden place that truly belongs to middle-aged people."
Baiyun Temple, which is regarded as "Beijing's first Taoist temple", is hidden on the side of the West Second Ring Road. According to senior enthusiasts of Baiyun Temple, in the past, Cixi often visited, and the eunuchs led by Li Lianying donated three years of Yulu in order to build a rockery in Baiyun Temple and accumulate blessings for themselves. "The Lama Temple is too crowded, and the Baiyun Temple is just right."
Of course, to burn incense, it is indispensable to look at the "surroundings".
The temple's peripheral products are now very subdivided, there are fortune and good luck, there are treasures, as well as amulets, peace charms, disaster elimination charms, various tracks, all kinds of forms are readily available, in addition to conventional bracelets and accessories, "secret charms" is one of the main cultural and creative peripherals of Baiyun Temple, 30 yuan a piece. It is said that the insomnia charm that can eliminate the worries before going to bed and "make you feel more energetic and radiant in the morning" under the pillow is very popular.
Touching the stone monkey to pray for blessings is also a traditional folk activity of Baiyun Temple. This directly led to the stone monkeys in Baiyun Temple being touched and pulped.
"But can you stop working by worshipping the Buddha?" Zhang Qing said bluntly, "I still have to write the report well during the holidays, and I have to share it on the first day of work." ”
In Baiyun Temple, the middle-aged man completed his ritual, but he had to do it himself.
Financial people flocked to the temple
Numerology in the investment industry
Today, about 130,000 projects will face exit pressure one after another, who can not panic?
Worshipping the Buddha and seeking scriptures is a positive psychological suggestion for most people. Investors are not exempt from vulgarity, and "going to the temple to worship" has become a new trend in the workplace. But as everyone knows, in the financial circle, things related to "metaphysics" have long been common.
Last year, the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a document, which mentioned that "severely crack down on violations such as the use of the heavenly stems and the five elements of yin and yang feng shui to predict the stock market." ”
Not only in the secondary market, but also in the investment circle of the primary market, the five elements of yin and yang are counted as projects, and gossip can only be regarded as "standard".
A partner of a medical institution once told a reporter from Rongzhong that it is more common for individual LPs to count funds and projects. "We have a fund that is ready to raise capital, and suddenly a funder calls me and says he can't invest." He said helplessly, "As a result, when asked, LP said that his master is counted, and a certain project we intend to fund is 'incompatible' with him, and we will lose money." ”
"We were about to complete the fundraising, but the sudden withdrawal made us very passive."
After three years, the investment project of this fund has developed well, and the project that was counted as "incompatible" by the master even exceeded expectations, "I mentioned to the investor that this 'Keta' project made a lot of money, and the investor told me, 'The master is not accurate, and I have now replaced a more powerful one'." ”
In order to meet the needs of LPs, GPs will also pay attention to those places with a wide field of vision when choosing office locations, pay attention to the openness in front of the house, and accept the anger of all directions, which is in line with the business of paying attention to attracting visitors from all over the world. According to this principle, when choosing an office space, many GPs prefer an open view directly in front of them, without any obstruction, such as fences, telephone poles, billboards, and trees that are too large to cover their eyes.
In fact, the theory of Feng Shui also has a geographical circle.
The further south investors are, the more convinced they are of this.
"We raised funds before, and we also looked for LPs in the Chaoshan area, and they believed in this very much, and once they had already reached the signing stage, but the pen that signed leaked, and the LP gave up directly." Tong Shan recalled. "We've seen a lot of this kind of thing, and there was an LP who once printed out the photos of several of our partners from the official website and showed them to the master to see if anyone was facing him."
In addition to LPs looking at feng shui, there are also a large number of investors who believe in fate.
Bluewood Venture Capital claims to have a set of investment methodology: 1. Collect the founder's birthday, 2. Find an e-Jing consultant to calculate the founder's fortune, 3. Ask the project party for BP, 4. Decide whether to communicate with the founder in person according to the clear fortune, 5. Make a payment.
In just five steps, it only takes as little as one day to finalize the investment. Behind it, the person who interprets the birthday of the founder of the project for Tang Shaoqi is also an "investor" - Mei Junqi, the founder of "Bole Venture Capital".
"Our boss also believes in these, including internal promotions, we have to find a master to calculate, there is a new leader in office, and the chair must be black and red, which is to be auspicious." Zhang Qing told Rongzhong reporters.
Not only VC investors, but also brokerages who have had a bad time in the past year firmly believe in the theory of feng shui. You must know that the first time the financial industry publicly talked about feng shui was brokerage.
As early as 1992, CLSA, which was born in France, asked a feng shui master to predict Hong Kong stocks in order to please customers, and wrote the results on greeting cards and mailed them. As a result, coincidentally, there were 7 inflection points in Hong Kong stocks that year, and Lyon's report just hit all of them, and since then, it has become a tradition to release the feng shui index at the beginning of the year.
Because of his popularity, Lyon walked on thin ice, and the report began by saying: It is only for leisure after tea and dinner, and do not read from the book, so as not to be imprisoned.
It has been rumored that the annual strategy of a brokerage company will be set to open in Lingyin Temple, and Lingyin Temple is known as the world's first temple of wealth.
The Yellow God of Wealth in Lingshun Temple is said to be the richest of all the gods of wealth, and can give wealth to the world. It is rumored that Ma Yun also went to worship Lingshun Temple and the Yellow God of Wealth.
Of course, it is understandable for investors to pray for wealth, after all, when GPs make money, LPs can settle in their pockets.
At the end of the investment is metaphysics
Is the end of the metaphysics of the primary market mergers and acquisitions?
Last year, a journal published an article showing that investment behavior is related to metaphysics. It pointed out that when the CEO of the company meets the natal year, the year can significantly reduce his ineffective investment, and the company's investment behavior is more conservative.
This kind of investment logic is very interesting, compared to factors, indicators and fundamentals, some private equity and companies are more inclined to "rely on the sky", such as setting up a metaphysical team to specialize in the study of founder numerology.
Interestingly, previously, Rongzhong also reported that Mr. Feng Shui, the queen of an institution in South China, invested in the newly established fund of the institution as an individual LP. Even the internal staff laughed and said, "Our fund is going to be on fire." ”
On November this year, the Lama Temple can be described as a sea of packed people.
Every year on the first and fifteenth days of the Lunar New Year and holidays, the subway of Lama Temple will be restricted. Young people flock to the temple, adhering to the motto "It is better to go to work and school than to go to incense; It is better to seek others and oneself than to seek Buddha".
Metaphysics, believing in it, is belief.
When people are extremely anxious, they believe in metaphysics.
This year, the investment industry has been particularly difficult.
It has been more than a year since the "827" new policy proposed to tighten IPOs in stages last year. This year, the number of declarations, acceptances, and listings has been greatly reduced, and the total amount of IPO funds raised is less than 100 billion.
According to statistics, as of August 26, in the past year, 135 A-share IPOs have been accepted, a year-on-year decrease of more than 70%; According to the date of listing, a total of 129 companies were successfully listed in IPO, a year-on-year decrease of 293, raising a total of 96.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 79.69%, and a total of 9.292 billion yuan in issuance expenses, a year-on-year decrease of 74.96%; A total of 481 IPO projects were terminated due to voluntary withdrawal, doubling year-on-year.
The continuous "cooling" of IPOs and refinancing has made front-line practitioners such as brokerages, investment banks, and VC investors feel "under great pressure". In order to find a breakthrough, mergers and acquisitions have become "the hope of the whole village".
In the first half of this year, a total of 3,617 M&A events were disclosed in China's M&A market (domestic M&A), with a transaction value of about 613.107 billion yuan. Among them, 2,007 mergers and acquisitions were disclosed in the second quarter, with a transaction scale of 339.58 billion yuan, and the transaction volume and transaction value increased by 24.66% and 24.15% respectively compared with the first quarter.
The new "National Nine Articles" of the capital market issued earlier pointed out that listed companies are encouraged to focus on their main business, comprehensively use mergers and acquisitions to improve the quality of development, increase the reform of mergers and acquisitions, and take multiple measures to activate the mergers and acquisitions market.
In this context, it is both a challenge and an opportunity for VC/PE institutions that have a large number of resources of listed companies.
The venture capital industry has been developing for many years, and some leading institutions have accumulated a large number of listed enterprise resources, many of which are chain owners. According to Rongzhong, at present, some old RMB funds have begun to try ecological play, through various ecological organizations, invested enterprise clubs, and local enterprise exchanges, to mobilize dusty resources, so as to strengthen the operational efficiency of VC/PE in investment, management, exit and other aspects.
In the future, it is expected that there will be more and more integration between A-shares for the purpose of group heating, big fish eating small fish, or strong alliances. Instead of offering incense to the Buddha, it is better to take advantage of the present and act quickly.