An international coalition led by scientists at Oregon State University concluded in its annual report, released today (Oct. 8), that the deterioration of signs of life on Earth heralds "a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis" that "requires decisive action, and fast".
Under the guidance of William Ripple and former postdoctoral researcher Christopher Wolf at the University of Oslo, the collaboration identifies key areas for policy intervention – energy, pollutants, nature, food and the economy – in The 2024 State of the Climate Report (BioScience).
Ripple, a distinguished professor at Oregon State University's College of Forestry, said: "Most of the structure of life on our planet is at stake. We are already in the midst of a sudden climate change, which is harmful to life on Earth like humanity has never seen before. Ecological overload, beyond what the Earth can safely give, has pushed the Earth into a situation more threatening than any climatic conditions experienced by prehistoric creatures. "
He noted that 25 of the 35 signs of life on Earth that scientists use to track climate change each year are at historical extremes.
July 2024 saw three hottest days on record, with record levels of fossil fuel emissions, human population, and ruminant livestock, according to climate reports.
The human population is increasing at a rate of about 200,000 people per day, and the number of ruminant domestic animals – ungulate mammals such as cattle, sheep and goats – is increasing by about 170,000 per day, which produce greenhouse gases and require a lot of energy to raise.
Annual consumption of fossil fuels will climb by 1.5% in 2023, mainly due to a significant increase in the use of coal (1.6%) and oil (2.5%), the report states.
In 2023, the use of renewable energy has also increased – the consumption of solar and wind energy combined increased by 15% compared to 2022. But the use of renewables is only one-quarter of fossil fuel use, and the recent increase in renewable energy use is largely due to increased demand, not because they are replacing fossil fuels.
The annual global loss of tree cover rose from 22.8 million hectares in 2022 to 28.3 million hectares in 2023, according to the global year-to-date average, with atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane at record highs, based on global year-to-date averages.
The consequences of inaction and calls for policy change
Wolff, now a scientist at the Corvallis-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Association (TERA), said: "The rate at which methane emissions have been growing at an accelerated pace is very disturbing. It is potent and long-lived, and is currently at an all-time high. "
Wolf noted that other issues of concern in the report include:
- The average temperature on the Earth's surface is at an all-time high.
- Ocean acidity and caloric content, as well as global mean sea level, are at historical extremes.
- Greenland, Antarctica, and average glacier thickness are all at record lows.
- Twenty-eight amplified feedback loops have been identified – those that exacerbate climate change, such as permafrost thawing.
- In 2023, an estimated 2,325 people died from heat in the United States, a 117% increase from 1999.
"Since the release of our 2023 Report, there have been multiple climate-related disasters, including a series of heatwaves across Asia that killed more than a thousand people and temperatures reaching 122 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of India," Ripple said. Climate change has already displaced millions of people and has the potential to lead to the displacement of hundreds of millions or even billions of people. This is likely to lead to greater geopolitical instability and may even lead to the collapse of parts of society".
Their goal, the scientists say, is to "provide clear, evidence-based insights that inspire smart, bold responses from citizens, researchers and world leaders." Specifically, they recommend the following policies to be adopted quickly:
- Implement a global carbon price that limits emissions from the wealthy while providing potential funding for further climate action.
- Improve energy efficiency and conserve energy while replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon, renewable energy.
- Curbing greenhouse gas emissions, including emissions of short-lived pollutants such as methane.
- Protect and restore biodiverse ecosystems, which play a key role in the carbon cycle and storage.
- Encourage people to change their eating habits and value plant-based foods.
- Promote a sustainable ecological economy that greatly reduces overconsumption and waste by the wealthy.
- Integrate climate change education into the global curriculum to raise awareness, literacy and action.
"Despite six reports, hundreds of other reports, tens of thousands of scientific papers from the IPCC, and 28 annual meetings of the UN Conference of the Parties, the world has made little progress on climate change," Wolf said. "The future of humanity depends on creativity, moral cultivation and perseverance. If future generations are to inherit the world they deserve, decisive action must be taken, and quickly. "
This year's official session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November.
与里普、沃尔夫、OSU的贝弗利-劳（Beverly Law）和TERA的吉利安-W-格雷格（Jillian W. Gregg）合作撰写气候报告的还有哈佛大学的纳奥米-奥雷斯克斯（Naomi Oreskes）、宾夕法尼亚大学的迈克尔-曼（Michael E. Mann）、宾夕法尼亚大学的托马斯-M. 悉尼大学的纽瑟姆（Thomas M. Newsome）、南京大学的徐驰（Chi Xu）、奥胡斯大学的延斯-克里斯蒂安-斯文宁（Jens-Christian Svenning）、埃克斯大学的蒂莫西-M. 埃克塞特大学的 Timothy M. Lenton、米纳斯吉拉斯联邦大学的 Cássio Cardoso Pereira、波茨坦气候影响研究所的 Stefan Rahmstorf 和 Johan Rockström 以及瑞士联邦理工学院的 Thomas W. Crowther。
The CO2 Foundation and Roger Worthington, an attorney and owner of Worthy Brewing in Bend, Oregon, provided financial support for this study.
编译自/SciTechDaily