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Situation in the Taiwan Strait: Possible conflict and potential consequences within a week
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Introduction: Tensions escalate again
In recent years, relations across the Taiwan Strait have been like a tense bowstring that may break at any time due to a small factor, and an assessment report released by Japan has aroused widespread concern, claiming that the PLA will be able to complete the capture of Taiwan within a week, which not only caused a nervous reaction on the island, but also made the international community begin to re-examine the future direction of cross-strait relations. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the contents of Japan's assessment report and discuss the reaction of the Taiwan military, in order to provoke readers to think about the dialectical relationship between peace and force
Five steps, a road map for attacking Taiwan
According to Japan's assessment report, the PLA's plan to attack Taiwan can be divided into five steps, and the PLA will conduct large-scale exercises along the coast with the aim of confusing the outside world's judgment of its true intentions
The second step is to send a large number of warships to blockade the sea area and seize sea supremacy, and the key to controlling the sea lies in the blockade of the sea area, thereby limiting the Taiwan military's counterattack capability and logistical support
In the third step, the PLA will carry out saturation missile attacks on Taiwan's military facilities and use electronic warfare means to paralyze the other side's communications and command systems
The fourth step is to establish a "bridgehead" for landing ships and transport helicopters to achieve rapid delivery of heavy equipment and troops, and the implementation of this stage requires a high degree of coordination and rapid reaction capability, which is the core part of the plan to attack Taiwan
The PLA will conduct ground operations to try to take full control of Taiwan in a short period of time, and Japan's report not only lays out detailed steps, but also sets a clear time frame for this series of possible conflicts, which is worrying
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Blind confidence or confidence?
After the release of Japan's assessment report, Li Zhengjie, a retired general of the Taiwan army, responded to widespread attention, and he bluntly said that Japan's assessment obviously overestimated the combat effectiveness of the Taiwan army and believed that the PLA could even take over Taiwan within three days; this remark not only aroused strong opposition from the Taiwan military, but also reflected Taiwan's internal worries and uneasiness about the PLA's military capabilities
The "Report on the Strength of the Continental Army" of Taiwan's defense department also raised vigilance against the PLA, pointing out that in recent years, the mainland's national defense budget has continued to increase, and the quantity and quality of new equipment have increased rapidly; then it has emphasized geographical factors and limitations in landing capabilities, holding that the PLA does not yet have the strength to attack Taiwan in an all-round way.
On this issue, Taiwan's policymakers must carefully consider that Taiwan's security depends not only on military strength, but also on comprehensive strategic thinking. Such thinking deserves deep consideration by everyone who is concerned about the situation in the Taiwan Strait
Comparison of strength, who has more advantages?
In recent years, the rapid development of the People's Liberation Army in military modernization can not be ignored, according to the latest data, the performance and number of fighters of the People's Liberation Army far exceed that of the Taiwan army, especially in the construction of naval and air combat platforms, forming an absolute advantage, the extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles has made the People's Liberation Army in the struggle for air supremacy has achieved remarkable results
The addition of the PLA's 075 amphibious assault ship and Y-20 transport aircraft has greatly enhanced its amphibious combat capability and strategic maneuver capability; in contrast, the Taiwan military is facing severe challenges in terms of equipment and technology, and the speed of updating the equipment of the Taiwan military is far from being comparable with the modernization process of the PLA, and how to deal with this reality has become a difficult problem that the Taiwan military must face
Against the backdrop of the PLA's increasing combat effectiveness, will the Taiwan military be able to resist external threats with "blind confidence"? Obviously, this is not only a technical issue, but also a strategic issue, and the Taiwan military needs to re-examine its own defense strategy.
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The hope of peaceful reunification and the deterrence of force
Against the complex background of cross-strait relations, the dialectical relationship between peaceful reunification and the use of force has always existed, and although the PLA has great strength to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, peaceful reunification has always been a more ideal choice; perhaps, the choice of peace is not contradictory to the deterrence of force; on the contrary, peace is the choice, and force is the guarantee to ensure that this choice can be realized
As Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman for the Ministry of Defense of the Mainland, said, the use of force is not an easy decision, and will only be used as a last resort, and this bottom line is precisely a necessary condition for maintaining peace
How to achieve this goal in cross-strait relations is still a complex issue that needs to be resolved urgently, and can cross-strait exchanges and cooperation be further promoted against this background? This is a question that everyone who cares about cross-strait relations needs to ponder deeply
Choice & Possibility
In summary, the tension in the Taiwan Strait is not an overnight achievement, but the result of a long period of intertwined factors, the release of Japan's assessment report reflects international concern about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and the comparison of the strength of the Taiwan military and the PLA is obviously an unavoidable topic
In the future, the choice of peace and force will have a far-reaching impact on cross-strait relations, and we hope that with the efforts of all sides, peaceful reunification can be realized at an early date
It is hoped that readers will think deeply about this issue and share their own views and opinions, that the future of the two sides of the strait is in everyone's hands, and that everyone's voice and actions may be able to promote the development of this complex situation in a more ideal direction
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