According to Australian media news, United States Air Force Secretary Kendall said at the United States Air Force and Space Force Association's 2024 Air, Space and Cyber Conference that I have been paying close attention to China's military development for nearly 15 years. This is because China has invested heavily in capabilities, operational concepts and organizations aimed at defeating Western countries in the Western Pacific, particularly weapons on land and at sea such as United States air bases and aircraft carrier battle groups. Therefore, China is no longer a threat of the future, but a threat of today.
China continues to expand its nuclear forces and joint combat capabilities, so I think a war in the Pacific is probably imminent, and in order to prevent a conflict from erupting, we have to be prepared, and in order to be able to win, we have to be prepared. At the same time, our nation's security teams, as well as our allies and partners around the world, are avoiding and limiting the scale of conflict. In addition, according to Taiwan's defense department, mainland planes and ships operate near the Taiwan Strait almost every day. At the same time, experts from the United States Institute for the Study of War also said that although the mainland's aggressive actions will not break out into conflict, they are still threatening, and the United States needs to be prepared to deal with conflict. So why should the United States consider China its adversary?
First, until today, there are only two countries in the world that have joined forces to wipe United States off the map: China and Russia. The United States and the Soviet Union fought a Cold War for 44 years, and the main reason for United States' obsession with the Cold War mentality was its hegemonic ideology, historical inertia, and cultural roots. United States people's hegemonic ideology and sense of mission make them believe that United States have a responsibility to extend their values to the whole world and bring democracy and freedom to the people of the world. Although no large-scale war broke out between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the two sides engaged in fierce confrontation through various means, such as local proxy wars, science and technology, arms races, space races, and diplomatic competitions. The Soviet Union was once large enough to fully consume the energy of the "Cold Warriors", but now Russia can no longer meet the ability of the "Cold Warriors" to ensure mutual destruction, so it needs to pull China into its Cold War mentality.
Second, the Chinese population is four times that of the United States, and its economy has grown rapidly over the past few decades, surpassing that of the United States in 2014 in terms of purchasing power, and is now about 25% or more larger. According to the International Monetary Fund, if by 2028, China's economy will be almost 40% larger than that of United States. At the same time, China is currently the first trading partner of most countries, the world's advanced manufacturers, advanced technology owners, etc., and China is currently the only country in the world that can replace United States as the world's leading power. Such a competitive situation will exacerbate misunderstandings between the two countries and increase miscalculations. Finally, over the past 500 years, 12 of the 16 cases in which a rising power has replaced an established power have ended in war.
Third, China and the United States can also be described as inseparable conjoined twins, and the two countries could have complemented each other, but United States have never realized a cruel reality. The fiercest competition of all time has taken place under certain conditions, and neither side can guarantee that it will be immune. If an unexpected incident or a third-party provocation drags the adversary into the war, both countries may lose everything they have now and instead make a wedding dress for the other. The lessons of history tell us that a nuclear war cannot be won, so China and the United States absolutely must not fight a nuclear war, and this is the truth of Sino-US relations. In 2008, as Wall Street's adventures led to a global economic crisis, only China and United States could unite to prevent the crisis from turning into a global recession.
To sum up, the relationship between China and the United States can also be seen as a test of two super-strong brains, whether a person can accept two different ways of thinking and contradictory ideas at the same time, and still maintain the simultaneous operation of two brains. In the future, both China and United States will need to find ways to deal with both contradictions at the same time.
(Text/Bottle)