As of the Mid-Autumn Festival, since the beginning of this year, large-scale ETFs have flowed into 734.8 billion.
Among them, the national team bought about 5500-600 billion.
can buy so much, but it still can't stop the decline of A-shares.
And in the past two or three months, it has been declining.
Why can't the national team save A-shares?
This is not just a reason for pessimistic expectations.
What's weird is that when the national team was around 3,000 points, the buying power was still relatively strong, but it was about to fall below 2,700 points, so it didn't buy much.
What's going on here?
1. The master must hide himself
At the beginning of the year, we experienced a crash caused by a snowball knock-in and a DMA liquidation.
The reason why they can cause a plunge is because they expose their positions.
For large funds, it is especially important to hide their whereabouts, otherwise they will be sniped by others.
When everyone knows where the dense knock-in point of the snowball is, the market spontaneously forms an expectation: to kill it!!
It's like, in the open grassland, the rabbit should honestly hide in the hole, if it has to scream, run out in the daytime.
Then, the eagle in the sky will immediately aim at him.
The same is true for the national team!
If he reveals his whereabouts, the arbitrage agencies in the market will pick up the wool on him.
Second, hunting ≠ clearing
We look back at the beginning of the year when the snowball was hammered in.
Because the knock-in dense area is public information, and the knock-in volume is large.
It's like a big piece of fat sitting there, and the hunters are eyeing it.
At that time, the national team also hedged against the plunge, but it could not stop a large group of beasts from coming from all directions.
The dense knock-in zone is broken through layer by layer!
When the last piece of meat was snatched away, the beast began to go long with a backhand, and jerked.
This plunge is not caused by the market itself clearing out, but by the hunting of funds.
While some money has indeed been shaken off the bus, it may take a while before the market clears.
3. What is clearing?
A round of clearing must be the emergence of continuous shrinkage.
Shrinking means fewer and fewer people want to sell.
After the drawdown lasts for a certain period of time, the selling orders will be almost digested.
The last round of plunge began on January 2 and ended on February 5, during which the turnover was about 8 trillion.
The current round of decline began on May 20, and the turnover that lasted until the Mid-Autumn Festival was 24.7 trillion.
The decline in this round has not yet reached the level of the plunge at the beginning of the year, but judging from the turnover, the chips cleared may be more than 3 times.
When the market falls to a certain valuation level, the buying power gradually increases, and then a rebound is formed.
A large number of chips will be cleared on the way to the rebound.
Of course, if there are too many chips that need to be cleared, then the market will toss, fall and rebound again, and keep grinding the bottom!
It is difficult to predict the time it will take to clear the clearing, because the human heart becomes too fast.
For example, if a powerful policy emerges, those who were going to buy it may not sell.
There are so many factors that affect it, so we don't have to make blind predictions.
Fourth, the national team is using new ways to mediate
Suppose the market knows that the national team has to hold on to 3,000 points, can it hold on?
There is a high probability that it will not be able to hold, because the institutions know the hole cards, then they will continue to arbitrage the national team at the position of 3000 points.
For example, buy when it falls to 3,000 points, sell when it rebounds to 3,100 points, and swing back and forth.
But the market has not been able to rise. The national team has become the big one.
As a result, we found that in this round of decline, the national team is not attached to the integer threshold at all. I'll wait until it breaks.
Only by adopting this random way can the arbitrage funds be untouchable and have a better effect.
But the national team did not let the stock market fall too fast, but slowly fell in the dark.
On the one hand, it is to trap these arbitrage funds, and on the other hand, it can also give other long-term funds time and cheap chips to open positions correctly.
In order to prevent arbitrage, it has also recently begun to make random efforts on other indices, rather than just staring at the CSI 300 to buy.
When market valuations fall to a certain level, a rally will naturally occur.
Fifth, there are also movements in the futures market
In order not to expose positions, it is not excluded that the national team will operate on the futures market.
Two days ago, I shared a possible idea with my friends in my community.
1. It can just buy ETFs, which is what it has been doing before. Bottom-hunting on the spot.
2. Buy ETFs and hedge them on futures at the same time. That's what you're looking for.
3. Close the position on futures. It's also a buy, but it's quite hidden.
Now looking at the board, there are some signs. Like what:
1. The turnover of IF has been enlarged since mid-August.
2. The upper shadow of the CSI 300 index has increased significantly and is longer in length.
3. The stock market often opens high and moves low. Is there really that much selling pressure?
4. When the market fluctuates greatly, there are also some strange places in the basis of IF, you can check the index.
Sixth, clearing is an important part of the cycle
Whether it is the economic cycle or the bull and bear cycle of the stock market, clearing is an extremely important part.
If the clearing cannot be completed, the accumulated problems will not be released.
Then there may be more risks in the future.
It's just that the process of clearing will make people very uncomfortable, and even determine the fate of some people's lives.
I always believe that the upward phase of the cycle should not be too floating, and the downside should not be too pessimistic.
What should come will always come.
Whether it's the national team or other bottom-buying funds, they are now playing the role of market scavengers.
The index decline for more than a month is the collapse and compensation of the huddle plate, forming a market full of mud and sand.
Of course, we don't know if there will be another shock in the future, and we will continue to clear more chips.
Out of the clearance stage, just hold on.
The reward is voluntary, and 1 cent is silently supported, haha!
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