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Since the Trump administration announced a trade war in 2018, this war without gunpowder has been going on for six full years.
Unexpectedly, the trade war provoked by United States failed to bring down China's economy, and finally shot itself in the foot!
It can be seen from the domestic economic situation of the United States that the United States is really unable to hold on.
Previously, in order to control domestic inflation and achieve the purpose of promoting economic development, the United States raised interest rates frantically, adding a full three years, and the interest rate also soared to 5.5%.
The purpose of the United States' interest rate hike is far more than stimulating the domestic economy, but also "tricking" other countries to buy United States bonds.
When United States' bonds are almost bought out, and the United States suddenly cuts interest rates, then these countries that have bought United States bonds may suffer.
In fact, the trick of United States rate hike is also aimed at us, United States want to exploit us with a strong dollar.
But we are not fooled at all, foreign exchange reserves remain as they are, as long as we are not greedy, no matter how urgent the United States is.
However, maintaining such a high interest rate for a long time will make the United States itself unable to bear it first.
The rich people in the United States can live on bank interest alone, and they are unwilling to engage in industry, and a large number of poor people will not be able to find jobs, and the unemployment rate will rise significantly.
To make matters worse, dozens of banks in the United States are on the verge of bankruptcy, and the economy of the entire society is facing collapse.
Therefore, the United States has no choice but to cut interest rates, even if the United States is unwilling to lower, there is a high probability that it will not last next year.
But there are risks United States interest rate cuts, the dollar's purchasing power is already declining, and the strong rise of the renminbi has already made United States uneasy.
Now United States will cut interest rates, the attractiveness of the dollar will only continue to decline, and the hegemony of the dollar is already in jeopardy.
It is not difficult to see that the current economic crisis in United States has basically announced the fact that United States has failed in the trade war with China.
The goal of the United States trade war is to delay or even prevent China's rise. In 2023, the ratio of United States imports to China plummeted by 20%, and Sino-US trade reached a freezing point.
United States seems to have gradually reduced its dependence on mainland goods and achieved the so-called "decoupling from China" policy.
In fact, although the share of Sino-US trade has declined, the United States can only transfer this part of the decline to Southeast Asia and Mexico.
But as long as we look at the goods from these regions, it is not difficult to find that many of the raw materials of these goods still come from China, and they are clearly marked "Made in China" on them.
The United States always wants to get rid of us, but "Made in China" is like a nightmare that makes United States have nowhere to escape, which is also verified by the situation in the United States.
If the United States wants to break away from Chinese electricity, it will have to increase the price of electricity, and if the United States rejects products produced in China, it can only buy worse quality goods from Southeast Asia at high prices, and the same is true in cutting-edge fields.
So the United States has softened and simply lifted the ban.
This is the case in United States, and the people of the world are naturally not ignorant of the reason, China's market potential and productivity are obvious to all, and the renminbi means a genuine commodity.
In this case, no matter how the United States raises interest rates, it is difficult to shake the position of the yuan.
Now United States have no choice but to cut interest rates, and they are unwilling to bear the cost of these interest rate hikes, otherwise United States can only pay back the money honestly, which is certainly not the style of Lao Mei. So how can these costs be transferred?
United States has shown its own housekeeping skills, that is, to find a target of sanctions to "cut leeks".
It just so happened that India unfortunately ran into the muzzle of the gun again, and the United States naturally will not easily let go of this good opportunity.
In the past two years of the Russian-Ukrainian war, United States pulled a group of Western countries to carry out so-called "humanitarian sanctions" against Russia, but unexpectedly, India, a pro-United States family, did not listen to United States this time, why?
In fact, in the game of great powers, India has a clear heart, even if the US imperialist is the "world hegemon", Russia cannot be easily offended.
Because India is still highly dependent on Russia for weapons and energy, if it follows the sanctions against Russia, India will immediately fall into an energy crisis.
Therefore, India disobeyed United States for the first time and did not stand in the ranks of sanctions against Russia, which is also a face refutation of United States on the surface.
Moreover, seeing that United States is always deflated, India's recent ambitions as a "third world power" have swelled a little, and it even clamored for settlement in rubles to support de-dollarization, which makes United States hate itchy.
Taking this opportunity to impose sanctions on India can not only knock India, but also resolve its own economic crisis, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone.
Of course, although the sanctions are a "communiqué personal vendetta", there is also a certain economic justification for United States' choice of India.
On the one hand, India's industrial system is not perfect enough to easily withstand this sanction, and on the other hand, India is indeed large enough.
Otherwise, you can't feed the appetite of United States, India is indeed at the "just right" level in this aspect, which is simply the "blood bag" that United States dream of.
Since the beginning of this year, the United States has begun to act intensively, first firing a large number of India executives at home and imposing economic sanctions on India companies.
In September this year, two India shipping companies "mentioned" the United States blacklist, and these moves show United States' determination to transfer the conflict to India.
United States wanted to escape the economic crisis by moving flowers and trees, but in the end it could not resist the fate of weakness.
For India, the future economy may be a "cold winter", our cold winter has just passed, I don't know if India can successfully survive this round of storm.
References:
View China | The trade war has been going on for more than three years, and United States has been "lonely" - China Daily (chinadaily.com.cn)
What United States gain from the trade war with China-Xinhuanet (news.cn)
United States threatens sanctions India Iran port agreement, India Foreign Minister: Some people need to broaden their horizons (guancha.cn)
United States Announced: Sanctions against India companies|United States government|sanctions|Russia_Sina News (sina.com.cn)
India-Russia trade expansion causes United States dissatisfaction, U.S. Treasury Department warns India banks: sanctions may be imposed_Tencent News (qq.com)
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