During the year, Nissan's factories in China were closed, Guangqi Honda and Dongfeng Honda laid off employees one after another, and "phased adjustment" became the common choice of several Japanese joint venture car companies in China to cope with the fierce competition in the Chinese auto market. In stark contrast to the cold sales of Japanese automakers in China, BYD, a leading new energy automaker, has raised its sales target.
Tim Hsiao and other Morgan Stanley's auto industry analysts pointed out in a report on September 9 that BYD's management said that the annual sales target was raised to 4 million vehicles. It is understood that BYD's previous sales target guidance was about 3.6 million units, which also means that BYD raised its sales target by 400,000 units.
According to the data, from January to August this year, BYD's cumulative sales were about 2.3284 million, a year-on-year increase of 29.92%, with a gap of about 1.3 million with the target of 3.6 million vehicles, and about 1.7 million units from the sales target of 4 million vehicles, and there are still four months left this year. However, this does not mean that BYD's sales target is "a fool's dream".
Monthly sales are approaching 400,000, BYD raised the target because there is no pressure?
In the transformation of new energy vehicles, BYD is a deep participant and the biggest beneficiary. Since 2020, BYD's sales have been growing steadily and rapidly as if they were riding on a rocket. In August this year, BYD's monthly sales have reached 373,000 units, which is approaching 400,000 units per month, and maintains a year-on-year growth rate of 36% under the condition of a high base.
If calculated based on its August sales, BYD will complete sales of about 1.48 million units in the next four months, and there is no pressure to complete the previous sales target of 3.6 million units. If the target of 4 million units is achieved, the total sales volume will need to be increased by another 220,000 units in the next four months, which will be 425,000 units per month.
If combined with BYD's rapid growth trend in recent years, the annual sales target of 4 million units is not out of reach. It is worth noting that BYD's upward revision of the annual sales target also has a very important precondition, that is, the fifth-generation DM technology is rapidly being installed on BYD's models.
At the end of May this year, BYD's fifth-generation DM technology was released, with the world's highest engine thermal efficiency of 46.06%, and brought the Qin L/Seal 06 with a fuel consumption of 2 and a range of more than 2,000 kilometers. As a result, BYD's fifth-generation DM has also officially begun to be applied, and then models including the Song family and Han have been replaced with this latest power system to enhance market competitiveness. Judging from the market results, the fifth-generation DM technology is also very good, taking the Qin L as an example, the sales volume in August has reached 36,000 units.
From this point of view, BYD's increase in annual sales target is also due to the confidence brought by the fifth-generation DM technology, of course, from the perspective of the market environment, BYD also has the opportunity to sprint.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase again, and BYD may become the biggest beneficiary
I have to say that the background of BYD's upward revision of the annual sales target is really suitable for BYD's new energy route. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in August were 1.027 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43.2% and a month-on-month increase of 17%. Monthly retail sales hit a new high this year, maintaining a strong trend, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased again after exceeding 50% in July, reaching 53.9%.
"Subvert fuel", BYD's slogan has become a reality in the current context, and BYD, which has taken the technical route of new energy vehicles in an all-round way, can naturally get good feedback from the market. It is worth mentioning that in the new energy vehicle market, the rise of plug-in hybrid categories may be an important factor for BYD to be optimistic about its sales prospects.
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic plug-in hybrid market has been growing rapidly, according to the data of the Passenger Association, the retail sales of pure electric models and plug-in hybrid models in July were 482,000 and 396,000 respectively, an increase of 14.3% and 80.4% year-on-year, respectively. Obviously, plug-in hybrid models have become the main growth force of the auto market, and even the ratio of pure electric and plug-in hybrid has changed from 7:3 in 2023 to 6:4 today.
Unfortunately, BYD's plug-in hybrid models account for a very high proportion of the interior, with its plug-in hybrid passenger car sales of 222,000 units in August, accounting for about 60% of the internal sales. In addition, car scrap and update, trade-in and other policies are also driving the growth of the new energy vehicle market, Beijing, Guizhou and other places have introduced afterburner support equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in implementation plan, and the subsidy amount of new energy passenger vehicles is significantly higher than that of fuel vehicles, superimposed on the "golden nine silver ten" car consumption small peak, automobile consumption is growing.
On the one hand, BYD itself is improving, on the other hand, the market environment is favorable, and it seems that it is not difficult to understand that the sales target is raised, and even achieving the new sales target is not a "fool's dream". It is worth mentioning that BYD is not the first car company to raise its sales target this year, before that, Geely Automobile also raised the original sales target of 1.9 million to 2 million, and behind this, there is another data worth pondering: the retail share of Chinese brand passenger cars in August was 63.4%, and the cumulative retail share from January to August was close to 60% to 58%.