Text: Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 10, the total import and export value of the mainland in August was US$526.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The total export value was 308.65 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and the total import value was 217.63 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. The trade surplus was $91.02 billion, the highest so far this year.
Core conclusionIn August, the mainland's exports to major countries showed positive year-on-year growth. In August, mainland exports to United States amounted to US$47.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and the growth rate fell by 3.2 percentage points from July, still in the positive growth range. The mainland's exports to ASEAN increased by 9% year-on-year in August, and the growth rate fell by 3.2 percentage points from July. In August, mainland exports to the EU increased by 13.4% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in recent years. The mainland's exports to Japan also showed signs of recovery in August, with an export value of US$12.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and the growth rate returned to positive. In terms of the proportion of export value, the mainland's exports to the four major export destinations accounted for 49.5% of the total value, a slight decrease from July. From the perspective of the contribution to the growth rate of exports, in August, the growth rate of exports to the mainland played a greater role in stimulating the growth of EU exports. In August, mainland exports to the EU contributed 1.9 percentage points to the growth rate of exports in the month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from July. Mainland exports to United States contributed 0.8 percentage points to export growth in August, down 0.4 percentage points from July. In August, the mainland's exports to ASEAN contributed 1.3 percentage points to the growth rate of exports in the month, down 0.5 percentage points from July. In August, exports to Japan were no longer a drag on mainland export growth. Overall, the mainland's exports from major export destinations in August contributed positively to the overall growth rate. From the perspective of industry export categories, the export contribution of mechanical and electrical products has increased. In August, mechanical and electrical products, as the largest category of mainland exports, contributed 6.9 percentage points to exports, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from July. In terms of other categories, the contribution of agricultural exports to exports in August increased compared with the previous month, and the drag of labor-intensive industries on mainland exports decreased in August. The export of mechanical and electrical products generally maintained a high growth. In August, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 11.9% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points faster than in July. From the perspective of specific industries, there was a significant increase in automobile exports in August: a year-on-year increase of 33%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to the export growth rate in August, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from July. Ship exports maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 61%, contributing 0.5 percentage points to the export growth rate in August. Mobile phone exports grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 17% in August, contributing 0.4 percentage points to exports in August. Risk warning: First, geopolitical risks exceed expectations; Second, the macro economy is less than expected; Third, there are large fluctuations in overseas markets. In the body of the report, the trade surplus returned to a high level on September 10, the General Administration of Customs released data that in US dollar terms, the total import and export value of the mainland in August was 526.27 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The total export value was 308.65 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and the total import value was 217.63 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. The trade surplus was $91.02 billion, the highest so far this year.
2. Exports to the EU grew rapidlyIn August, the mainland's exports to major countries showed positive year-on-year growth. In August, mainland exports to United States amounted to US$47.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and the growth rate fell by 3.2 percentage points from July, still in the positive growth range. The mainland's exports to ASEAN increased by 9% year-on-year in August, and the growth rate fell by 3.2 percentage points from July. In August, mainland exports to the EU increased by 13.4% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in recent years. The mainland's exports to Japan also showed signs of recovery in August, with an export value of US$12.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and the growth rate returned to positive. In terms of the proportion of export value, the mainland's exports to the four major export destinations accounted for 49.5% of the total value, a slight decrease from July.
From the perspective of the contribution to the growth rate of exports, in August, the growth rate of exports to the mainland played a greater role in stimulating the growth of EU exports. In August, mainland exports to the EU contributed 1.9 percentage points to the growth rate of exports in the month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from July. Mainland exports to United States contributed 0.8 percentage points to export growth in August, down 0.4 percentage points from July. In August, the mainland's exports to ASEAN contributed 1.3 percentage points to the growth rate of exports in the month, down 0.5 percentage points from July. In August, exports to Japan were no longer a drag on mainland export growth. Overall, the mainland's exports from major export destinations in August contributed positively to the overall growth rate.
3. The export of mechanical and electrical products maintained a high growth From the perspective of industry export categories, the export contribution of mechanical and electrical products has increased. In August, mechanical and electrical products, as the largest category of mainland exports, contributed 6.9 percentage points to exports, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from July. In terms of other categories, the contribution of agricultural exports to exports in August increased compared with the previous month, and the drag of labor-intensive industries on mainland exports decreased in August. The export of mechanical and electrical products generally maintained a high growth. In August, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 11.9% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points faster than in July. From the perspective of specific industries, there was a significant increase in automobile exports in August: a year-on-year increase of 33%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to the export growth rate in August, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from July. Ship exports maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 61%, contributing 0.5 percentage points to the export growth rate in August. Mobile phone exports grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 17% in August, contributing 0.4 percentage points to exports in August. Integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment and their parts and components maintained high year-on-year growth but the growth rate slowed down, exports in August increased by 18% and 11% year-on-year respectively, slowing down 10 and 8 percentage points from July, and contributed 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points to the export growth rate in August respectively.
4. Risk warning
First, geopolitical risks exceed expectations; Second, the macro economy is less than expected; Third, there are large fluctuations in overseas markets.
This article is from the report "Import and Export Data Review: Trade Surplus Continues to Climb" released by Huafu Securities Research Institute on September 10, 2024.
Analyst:
燕翔， S0210523050003
许茹纯， S0210523060005
New Book Recommendation|"In Search of the Road to Value: 1990~2023 Chinese Stock Market Review"
This book systematically reviews the market trend of A-shares from 1990~2023 since the establishment of the Chinese stock market, and pays more attention to the use of quantitative empirical evidence to explain market changes. The author tries to construct a "four-in-one" analytical framework for review, that is, macroeconomy, corporate earnings, interest rate level, and asset price comparison. Each year's market review is divided into three parts: the first part is a review of major events, which provides a narrative description of key events affecting the capital market; The second part of the economic situation analyzes the macroeconomic situation and the changes in the earnings and valuation of listed companies; The third part of the market characteristics analyzes and explains the structural characteristics of the stock market in the current year. The last two chapters of the book provide an overview of the investment framework, methodology and key issues of the A-share market.
In order to do a better job in the review research, the new version of "The Road to Pursuing Value" has made a lot of revisions, including: first, it has continued to write the review of the A market in the last three years from 2021 to 2023; The second is to reconstruct the annual strategic topics, and the methodological part with universal significance is summarized in the last two chapters of the book for a framework summary, so that readers can better understand the basic logic of A-share operation; the third is to increase a large number of special columns to think and discuss many special issues; Fourth, add inductive tables and data summaries to highlight the reference book attributes of this book; Fifth, the content of the original chapters has been supplemented and revised to a considerable extent. Overall, no less than 40% of the new version has been updated and revised.
At a time when the mainland is speeding up the construction of a financial power, the era of a comprehensive registration system has begun, and the capital market has attracted widespread attention from the whole society, we sincerely hope that the new edition of "The Road to Value" can help readers better understand the historical details of the past A-shares, so as to rationally and scientifically judge the short-term, medium- and long-term trends of the future market.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The content contained in this official account is only for professional institutional investors, and any subscribers who do not meet the above conditions are requested to evaluate the appropriateness of receiving the subscription content before subscribing. Subscribing to this Official Account does not constitute the basis of any contract or commitment, and Huafu Securities does not regard subscribers as customers of the Company due to any act of subscribing to or receiving the content of this Official Account.
Huafu Securities does not make any express or implied warranty for the accuracy, reliability, timeliness and completeness of the information contained in this official account. The information and opinions of this official account only represent the judgment of the source securities research report on the date of release, and the relevant research views can be changed without issuing a notice based on the subsequent securities research report issued by Huafu Securities. Huafu Securities' sales personnel, traders and other professionals may make oral or written market comments or trading opinions that are inconsistent with the information on this official account based on different assumptions and standards and different analysis methods.
The content of this Official Account is not an investment decision-making service, and under no circumstances does it constitute any investment advice to the audience receiving the content of this Official Account. Subscribers should fully understand the various investment risks, make investment decisions independently according to their own circumstances, and bear their own investment risks. Huafu Securities does not assume any form of responsibility for any consequences caused by relying on or using the information contained in this official account.
The copyright of this official account and its push content belongs to Huafu Securities. Without the prior written permission of Huafu Securities, no institution or individual shall reprint, reprint, reproduce, publish and quote the relevant content in any form, otherwise all adverse consequences and legal liabilities caused thereby shall be borne by the person who reprints, reproduces, publishes and quotes without permission.