All good things in nature are slow, just like the sun rises little by little, flowers bloom one by one, grain matures, and water flows slowly. On the contrary, those that come suddenly are short-lived, even disasters. If you want to hurry, you won't be able to do it, so don't rush too much. In the past, many clinics that did well have at least experienced a few years of accumulation and precipitation. In the future, the clinic is evolving, and the time will be shortened, but it will still be steady and growing. This long-term business is slowly growing. The law of bamboo, with deep roots, is strong when it explodes.
Source: Diagnostics
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Editor: Zongzheng
Cover source: Pexels
This is a question, but not a conclusion, and it deserves to be analyzed in detail.
Consider it from industry data, market trends, and the current situation of clinics.
1. Number of clinics: In 2023, there will be 319,000 clinics nationwide and 86,300 TCM clinics. On a month-on-month basis, there were 283 community health service centers, 164 township health centers, 5,785 village clinics, 36,552 clinics (infirmaries, nursing stations), and 11,900 new traditional Chinese medicine clinics. The large increase and decrease of primary medical institutions, the market changes are obvious, inextricably linked, we have to look at the trend and density.
1) After the end of the three-year epidemic, the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Clinic Filing" was released at the end of 2022, and the threshold for opening clinics was further reduced. Judging from the growth in 23 years, although the growth has slowed down in 24 years, and there may even be negative growth, the number of clinics will definitely continue to rise in the future. "Planning" proposed by 2025 the number of traditional Chinese medicine medical institutions to reach 95,000, and wait for another 5 years, that is, in 2030, it is estimated that the number of traditional Chinese medicine clinics will reach at least 104,000, these five years is to enter the mainstream stage of good money to drive out bad money, "dirty, messy, black" and "cow ghosts, snakes, and gods" to engage in the survival space of medical clinics will be unprecedentedly reduced, into the stage of survival in the cracks, chain and individual high-quality clinics will be the mainstream, excellent after all, the best is a few, investment in construction and operation management clinics will be more rational and stable, Therefore, the growth rate will not be as large as in the previous five years. Based on several key factors: the popularity and demand for TCM services continue to increase, the trend of continuous growth, the support of the policy environment, the improvement of the quantity and quality of medical talents, the improvement of technological progress and the quality of medical services, the overall market is far from saturated, and will grow benignly.
2) According to the assessment of industry experts and investment institutions, when the number of TCM clinics reaches about 110,000, there will be a large number of capital resources to enter the industry, acquire and build new ones, and promote the industry to standardize and brand, and move towards standardization and maturity. But what is the specific market capacity of the number of TCM clinics in mainland China? Everything is in motion, and there are too many factors that may affect the direction of this data, and many of them are full of uncertainty and difficult to predict. This is not very meaningful for the development of clinics that are already operating at this stage.
2. Number of visits: 1.41 billion people in mainland China. In 2023, the number of visits to primary medical institutions will be 4.94 billion, an increase of 670 million month-on-month, accounting for 51.8% of all diagnosis and treatment. There are three reasons for this: an increase in the number of primary clinics and an increase in the number of areas covered; The outpatient co-ordination policy has been fully implemented, and the clinic can also be reimbursed, although the amount is low (it should be 2000), although the quality of use and the quantity of use have been strictly controlled in 24 years; The state has been implementing a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system to encourage patients with common and frequent diseases to go to primary medical institutions for treatment first, and the intensity will be increased.
1) The total number of diagnosis and treatment in TCM medical and health institutions was 1.28 billion, accounting for 26% of the total number of visits in primary medical institutions. The total number of medical services in the country (9.55 billion) accounted for only 13%. This kind of can be preliminarily seen the demand and supply of traditional Chinese medicine diagnosis and treatment services, one is to show that traditional Chinese medicine services have played an important role in meeting the health needs of the people, the other is the clear positioning and adjustment of the medical system, the flow and choice of traditional Chinese medicine will be greatly increased (there are three important reasons for this, the popularity of traditional Chinese medicine diagnosis and treatment advantages, the direction of the economic situation, and policy orientation), and will also increase the proportion of traditional Chinese medicine diagnosis and treatment services, which does not include the number of service people who undertake prevention, rehabilitation, health care, and health preservation.
2) By 2023, 41,700 public TCM clinics have been set up across the country, and 99.5% of community health service centers and 99.9% of township health centers can provide TCM services. According to the 2023 Statistical Communiqué on the Development of Health Undertakings in the Mainland, based on the remarkable achievements of TCM medical and health institutions in improving people's health and promoting the development of TCM, the coverage and accessibility of TCM services will continue to be improved, and the density of visits will increase and spread to second- and third-tier cities;
3) The number of patients in the clinic is far from saturation. The 100-300 square meter TCM clinic does not include the clinic opened by the famous and old experts who have their own traffic and only prescribe Chinese medicine, but the staffing of 1-2 TCM + 3-4 therapists + 1-2 pharmacy front desk.
A. Internal medicine from reception, diagnosis, prescription, compatibility, decoction, departure, the middle four links need special time service, 10 + 20 + 60 = 90 minutes / guest? Almost all the whole process of external treatment from reception, diagnosis, treatment, and doctor's order also requires special services, with an average of 10+30=40 minutes/guest? Business hours, about 80% of the clinics in the market are 12 hours +, if we only count the internal medicine diagnosis and prescription time, the compatibility and decoction service time can be divided and postponed, the doctor removes the rest time for 2 hours, and then removes the cross time for 1 hour, and the time completely used for diagnosis and treatment is 6 hours, and 1-2 people can receive 36-72 people; The external treatment is 40 minutes per customer, and the external treatment teacher in the market has the longest time, many classes are more than 8 hours, even if we have complete diagnosis and treatment for 7 hours, 3-4 people can receive 33-44 people. One such clinic can receive 69-116 people, but most of the clinics with irregular and mature operation management process management will be busy. What percentage of clinics can currently achieve such a daily outpatient volume?
B. From the analysis of the outpatient volume of 100+ clinics that I know, the average daily outpatient volume of clinics with less than 10 people accounts for about 60%, 10-20 people account for about 25% per month, 20-30 people account for about 10%, and more than 40 people account for about 5%. From the perspective of such a single clinic, the outpatient volume itself is far from being saturated.
3. Medical density: How many TCM service units are there in the town? How many TCM clinics are there in the county? How many TCM service institutions are there in prefecture-level cities? Have you done data and policy analysis of the market situation? Provincial capital-level cities are currently high-quality soil for the number of TCM clinics, because medical resources are high. TCM diagnosis and treatment is the core part of the entire medical system, and we can not only analyze the TCM sector, but also make some summary analysis from the density of the overall medical care It will be more comprehensive.
1) In terms of the number of hospitals, Chongqing, Chengdu, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Wuhan, Harbin, and Qingdao rank among the top 10. Among the top 20 hospitals in southwest China, Chongqing occupies 7 seats. Chengdu is second only to Chongqing in terms of the number of hospitals. Under the integrated development of the Sichuan-Chongqing Economic Circle, the health fields of the two places are also being integrated simultaneously.
2) In terms of the number of practicing (assistant) physicians, Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Wuhan and Shenzhen ranked in the top 10. The number of licensed physicians in Beijing is about 120,000, ranking first. Chongqing, Shanghai and Chengdu also have more than 80,000 people.
3) In terms of the number of beds in health institutions, Chongqing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Beijing, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Harbin, and Changsha rank among the top 10, Chongqing has more than 200,000, and Shanghai, Chengdu, and Beijing have more than 130,000. It is also an important indicator to measure the level of medical care in the region.
4) From the perspective of urban permanent population, Chongqing (31.91 million), Shanghai (24.76 million), Beijing (21.86 million), Chengdu (21.4 million), Guangzhou (18.83 million), Shenzhen (17.79 million), Wuhan (13.77 million), Tianjin (13.64 million), Xi'an (13.08 million), and Zhengzhou (13.01 million) ranked in the top 10. Among them, there are 4 cities that I am particularly concerned about.
A. Chongqing is located in the southwest of China, is the upper reaches of the Yangtze River economic, financial, science and technology, shipping and trade logistics center, the only national logistics hub with five types of the country, in the development of the western region to play a supporting role, in the "Belt and Road" to play a leading role, in the Yangtze River Economic Belt to play a demonstration role. It is the core city of the country's "big rear" strategy.
B. Chengdu is an important national high-tech industrial base, trade and logistics center and comprehensive transportation hub approved by the State Council, and an important central city in the western region; It is an important electronic information industry base, the core city of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, a regional economic center, a science and technology center, a world cultural city and an international gateway hub, a science and technology center, a business and trade center, a financial center and a transportation and communication hub in the southwest region, and a station of organs in the Western Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. It is the core city of the country's "big rear" strategy.
C. Wuhan is the core city of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the strategic fulcrum of the rise of central China, and the pilot area for comprehensive innovation and reform. According to the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission, Wuhan is speeding up the construction of a national central city supported by the four functions of a national economic center, a high-level scientific and technological innovation center, a trade and logistics center and an international exchange center. It is the core city of the national "One Belt, One Road" land breakthrough strategy.
From several data, it can be seen that Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Chengdu are in the forefront of various medical indicators. In contrast, Shenzhen only ranks in the top 10 in terms of the number of practicing (assistant) physicians, while other key data are at the middle and lower levels. Talents are going to high places, how many medical talents will flow to the rear of Chongqing and Chengdu? But I personally think that there is another city with great potential, that is, Wuhan, which I just mentioned, which is mainly analyzed from the needs of development positioning at the national level.
Colleagues who have entered this industry, look at what city they are in, the impact of the general environment on individual clinics is actually great. And friends who want to enter this industry, see which city soil is suitable for them to go to? One of my concepts: the strong should go to these cities, excellent clinic models should take root in these cities, and the base areas of large chains should also take root in these top cities. However, the second- and third-tier city market is far from saturation, the competition situation is also relatively flat, and the next three years are a good time for the layout, and even the first choice for outstanding young Chinese medicine practitioners to open clinics, it is also a strategic place for major chains to sink. Banyan 1600+ clinics, insiders can learn about the proportion of the existing number of cities and the proportion of the number of expansion plans. Since then, I personally believe that Liu Yudong is a veritable big strategist in terms of market strategic vision and layout.
4. Feeling saturated: Many practitioners feel that the TCM clinic market is saturated, which mainly comes from the perception that there are many peer clinics around them and few customers in their own clinics. Therefore, there is a subjective cognition in this, objectively speaking, some city-level areas, more accurately should be business district-level areas, and there is indeed a situation where the number tends to be saturated. A good business district, a three-kilometer radius of more than a dozen is the norm. The perception of quantity in two aspects is the main source of the judgment conclusion of most practitioners.
1) As far as the regions of Chengdu are concerned, the core business districts of Qingyang, Wuhou, Gaoxin, Huayang, Shuangliu, Chenghua, Longquan, Pidu, Xindu, etc., almost all have more than 10 clinics within a three-kilometer radius, and the competitive atmosphere is very strong. Among them, some new clinics have a few outpatient visits a day, and there are zero eggs, they are not strong, and the choice of areas and business districts should be extra cautious, and the comprehensive evaluation of site selection does not have a comprehensive analysis of a month, and it is better to miss the shop than to choose impulsively.
2) The market demand share is increasing, the number of clinics is increasing, there are more and more clinics operating for more than three years, and the viability has basically gained a firm foothold in the small regional market, and the new clinics have been more rational and cautious, basically ready to know the clinics, are relatively strong, and then the competition will inevitably continue to intensify, but it is a healthy competition in the region, most of which are the competition between clinics with strong comprehensive ability, which is the stage that the industry will inevitably experience to mature, which is a good thing, the law of survival of the fittest. For clinics that are currently struggling to operate, it is necessary to think not only about how to find the right positioning and create differentiated advantages, but also how to improve operational efficiency and provide high-quality services to patients, most of which need to be adjusted and changed.
3) In the past month, I have communicated with many entrepreneurs, clinical personnel, managers and teachers of the MCN platform in the industry, and they are all mentioning how to break the situation. For those who have been on the front line for a long time, the whole thinking is basically around traffic, how to expand customers and drain traffic. At present, the key to the survival and development of the clinic and the long-term real breakthrough lies in the adjustment of the model, focusing on the adjustment of the business structure under the clear positioning, and driving several core aspects from the differentiation of department diseases, the technical quality system, the team talent allocation system, and the mature operation system. For the clinic model, I personally recommend that the area boundary be controlled at 80-120 square meters, and the monthly breakeven is less than 40,000 yuan, and only in the space where the cost of capital can be afforded, there is time to think, adjust and evolve.
May there be more and more strong players in the TCM clinic industry. There is more and more need, and there will inevitably be more and more. The current difficulties are exciting, this is a key opportunity to break out of the cocoon into a butterfly, and the plum blossoms that bloom through the bitter cold do you think it is more intoxicating. From now on, in the midst of difficulties, give yourself the mentality and state of a strong man, so that you can be worthy of the next beauty.
Have you noticed that all good things in nature are slow, just like the sun rises little by little, flowers bloom one by one, grain matures, and water flows slowly. On the contrary, those that come suddenly are short-lived, even disasters. If you want to hurry, you won't be able to do it, so don't rush too much. In the past, many clinics that did well have at least experienced a few years of accumulation and precipitation. In the future, the clinic is evolving, and the time will be shortened, but it will still be steady and growing. This long-term business is slowly growing. The law of bamboo, with deep roots, is strong when it explodes.
/ END /
Source of this article: Diagnosis lock boundary
Author: Wang Lei
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