Text | Qi Qin
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Since the beginning of 2024, the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine has taken a sharp turn, and the Russian army has advanced all the way, even hitting the border of Ukraine at one point, aiming directly at Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
A large number of Ukraine soldiers chose to flee due to low morale and insufficient supplies, and were even criminally prosecuted by the Ukraine government.
At the same time, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown strong confidence in public, claiming that Ukraine has the ability to make a breakthrough on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield and even plans to occupy part of Russia's territory.
Did Zelensky really bet on the right treasure? Will Ukraine's military predicament improve with support from NATO and United States? Against the background of an increasingly complex global situation, NATO's strategic focus is gradually shifting to the Asia-Pacific region, what does this mean for Ukraine?
The demoralization of the Ukrainian army and the problem of desertion
According to Henan Business Daily, from January to April 2024, in stark contrast to the soaring advance of the Russian army, the Ukrainian army is facing an extremely serious problem of low morale.
According to the Observer Network, the data previously released by the Ukraine prosecutorial department showed that in the past four months, a large number of deserters have been generated within the Ukrainian army due to low morale, and the relevant departments of the Ukrainian army have initiated criminal proceedings against at least 19,000 Ukraine deserters.
The reason for the flight of soldiers is not only the cruelty of the war itself, but also the unprecedented difficulties encountered by the Ukrainian army on the front line. At present, the main dilemma faced by the Ukrainian army is the problem of insufficient ammunition supply, and this problem is also one of the reasons for the low morale of the Ukrainian army.
The Russian army frequently uses missiles and drones to carry out large-scale bombardment of the positions of the Ukrainian army, which puts the Ukrainian army in an extremely unfavorable situation on the battlefield. Even the top of Ukraine had to admit the problem of low morale of the Ukrainian army.
The lack of effective strategic reinforcements in the Ukrainian army, the huge pressure on the front-line soldiers, and the insufficient supply of ammunition and materials have further exacerbated the low morale of the Ukrainian army.
And the phenomenon of desertion has also led to an extremely serious shortage of troops in the Ukrainian army, and in this case, it is conceivable that the Russian army will have a breakthrough offensive on the border of the Ukrainian army.
In this situation, more and more soldiers are choosing to abandon the fight. The Ukraine government has tried to curb this phenomenon through legal means, but in the face of today's mass desertion, their methods have been somewhat ineffective.
Zelensky's strategic turnOn September 3, 2024, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared extremely confident in an interview with United States media.
He even brazenly said that in the near future, the Ukrainian army will push all the way to the Kursk region on the border with Russia until part of the territory of the region is completely occupied.
This strategic intention is obviously not only to gain the initiative on the battlefield, but also to increase the leverage at the international negotiating table and force Russia to retreat from the eastern part of Ukraine.
As for Zelensky's words, although they are a little arrogant, there is some truth from the perspective of Ukraine.
After all, Zelensky's purpose is to win more assistance for himself, or for the Ukraine army, as much as possible in the post-Biden era through the occupation of Kursk Oblast.
Sure enough, United States then announced that it would provide $250 million worth of military aid to Ukraine, which is undoubtedly a recognition of Zelensky's strategic adjustment.
Another important move by NATO mercenaries to intervene in the Ukrainian army is the planned introduction of NATO mercenaries to participate in the fighting on the Kursk battlefield in the absence of troops.
On September 6, NATO publicly stated that it supported Ukraine's so-called "self-defense" right, and in response to Zelensky's thoughts, it appealed to the international side and asked the international community to increase military assistance to Ukraine.
However, NATO's support was not wholehearted. Their actual actions show that NATO's strategic focus has gradually shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, and Ukraine's status is gradually declining in NATO's global strategy.
NATO's attitude and strategic shift
On September 6, 2024, NATO members such as Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, France, and Netherlands sent reinforcements to the Western Pacific, and even NATO warships docked at Japan.
The German warship made it clear that it would pass through the Taiwan Strait, a move that undoubtedly sent a strong signal that NATO's eyes had turned to China.
These NATO military actions clearly show that they are more concerned about the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, especially the rise of China. NATO also issued a demand to the mainland, saying that the mainland should not carry out the so-called "aid to Russia" operation, otherwise it will face "serious consequences".
Stoltenberg's repeated tough statements are clearly about seeing China as NATO's next main adversary. They want to force China to choose between Russia and NATO.
The impact of NATO's strategic shift on Ukraine is obvious. Although NATO openly supports Ukraine, Ukraine's priority in NATO's global strategy is declining as the situation in the Asia-Pacific region heats up.
NATO's attention is shifting from the European theater to the Asia-Pacific region, making Ukraine's international support base increasingly fragile.
The protracted war of attrition in the Battle of KurskOn September 6, 2024, the Battle of Kursk entered the phase of a protracted war of attrition. The war was brutal, the Russia side paid a terrible price, and the Ukraine side paid for the lives of 10,000 soldiers.
The Russian army, on the other hand, relied on reserve forces to confront the main forces of the Ukrainian army and gradually gained the upper hand on the battlefield.
Although Ukraine has amassed more than 20,000 elite troops in Kursk, they are in a difficult situation due to serious supply problems. On the other hand, the Russian army, relying on the advantages of local operations, constantly weakens the combat effectiveness of the Ukraine army.
The overall situation of the Ukrainian army is very unoptimistic, and there is even a risk of a complete collapse.
The supply dilemma of the Ukrainian army The dilemma of the Ukraine army on the Kursk battlefield is not only the disadvantage of troops, but also the supply problem is extremely serious. The war is intensifying, and the supply of ammunition, food and medical supplies for the Ukrainian army is becoming more and more strained.
A large number of soldiers were bogged down by a lack of logistical support, and their combat effectiveness was significantly reduced. The Russian army took advantage of this and constantly launched attacks on the supply lines of the Ukrainian army, further weakening their combat effectiveness.
Of course, United States will not let Ukraine fall on the battlefield like this, at least not now.
On September 7, 2024, Pentagon officials revealed that the United States will provide Ukraine with JASSM long-range cruise missiles and Patriot missiles. Most of these weapons were mobilized from the Indo-Pacific region, showing the dilemma of United States in its global strategic layout.
At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg once again called on allies to further increase support for Ukraine and even allow Ukraine to expand its self-defense operations to Russia's homeland.
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the West and NATO
On September 7, Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, was hit by Russian airstrikes. Kyiv's air defense system is almost inoperative, and Russian air strikes have caused heavy losses to Ukraine. In addition, Russia launched a fierce attack on mercenary bases in Ukraine, causing casualties among more than 500 elite NATO advisers.
Western countries have expressed serious concern about this, especially the United States, which has begun to mobilize missiles and Patriot air defense systems from the Indo-Pacific region in an attempt to recover the disadvantage on the battlefield in Ukraine. However, this approach does not fundamentally solve the problem.
On September 11 this year, mainland Foreign Minister Wang Yi will go to Russia to attend the 14th BRICS High Representative Meeting for National Security Affairs. The Chinese government has called on Russia and Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement as soon as possible and promote peace talks, and has not publicly expressed support for or opposition to Russia's military action.
Some analysts believe that China may be secretly preparing a larger strategic response. United States' move to pull missiles from the Indo-Pacific region to support Ukraine may be a positive for China, but the actual impact is unclear.
In September 2024, the continuous escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East have caused United States' global hegemony to face double pressure.
United States must not only support Ukraine on the European battlefield, but also deal with the increasingly complex situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The maintenance of global hegemony has put United States in a huge predicament.
Some analysts have pointed out that if United States continues to stubbornly maintain global hegemony, it will only lead to an even greater defeat. If United States wants to maximize its interests in the new international pattern, it must abandon hegemonism, conform to the trend of the times, and adjust its global strategic layout.
Therefore, the challenges facing Ukraine in 2024 can be described as unprecedented. Zelensky tried to turn the situation around through strategic adjustment and relying on NATO's strength, but NATO's focus has shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, and Ukraine's position in the global game has become more and more awkward.
At the same time, the Russian army, relying on the advantage of local operations, gradually won the victory in the Battle of Kursk, and the Ukrainian army fell into a comprehensive predicament. In the context of the US-Russia game, NATO's strategic shift and China's low-key response have made the future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict even more uncertain.
Whether Ukraine will be able to break through the encirclement in this struggle in the future remains a question.
Information sources:
US media: Zelensky gave an exclusive interview for the first time after the Ukrainian army's cross-border attack, saying that Ukraine plans to keep the captured Russian territory indefinitely——2024-09-04 11:16· Global Network.