During the Trump administration, the United States has already put forward the concept of a so-called "trade war".
At the trade level, the mainland is suppressed and a so-called confrontation is formed, so as to be able to limit the rapid development of the mainland.
After Biden took office, the corresponding policy not only continued, but also deepened further.
However, judging from the current situation, the situation of the two countries is also quite different.
At present, the United States is mired in the vortex of supply chain crisis and inflation, and its economic development vitality is seriously insufficient.
But China's economic development has remained surprisingly stable, something that United States probably did not expect.
It seems that the trade war United States lost completely, but the United States suddenly discovered that the original reason for the failure may be India, because India has been "sending money" to China!
First, the trade war with China has been completely lost
In fact, before the epidemic, although the United States, as the world's largest economy, was able to maintain rapid economic growth, in fact, the domestic industrial market had problems.
Because the United States is overly interested in those high-tech industries, it sacrifices the market size of traditional basic manufacturing.
Therefore United States domestic supply of basic social consumer goods needs to be supplemented by export-oriented channels.
But even in such a situation, United States still put forward the concept of a so-called trade war, aiming at our country United States began to build high tariffs and create commodity barriers.
On the one hand United States through tariff adjustments, the entry of mainland goods into United States domestic markets is restricted.
On the other hand, it is the United States that deliberately shapes commodity barriers through a series of policies and its own international influence to prevent high-tech industries from being used by mainland enterprises.
The reason why the United States wants to do this is undoubtedly to deliberately maintain its world hegemony in order to limit the rapid development of our country.
After all, in recent years, our country's economy has made great progress, and the international community has been shocked.
There are many opinions that our country may surpass United States and become the world's largest economy in subsequent development.
However, after the epidemic, the situation has changed dramatically, and it can be seen that the supply chain crisis in United States is extremely serious.
Due to the over-issuance of currency, a large amount of US dollars began to flow into the domestic market, and domestic inflation also increased as a result.
The main thing is that it has even triggered worldwide inflation, and other countries are wary of the dollar harvest and the explosion of the dollar.
Countries have begun to accelerate the process of de-dollarization and reduce their dollar debt, which also makes United States miserable.
However, the situation in our country is very stable, after all, our country has a very complete supply chain and industrial system.
This also means that any social consumer goods can be supplied stably, the entire social market is still in a fairly balanced state, and the level of economic development can also be guaranteed.
However, the United States is still obsessed, and the restrictions imposed on the mainland at the trade level have become larger, accompanied by a series of sanctions.
In fact, theoretically speaking, the trade war policy proposed by the United States and some subsequent sanctions policies are indeed very effective.
This can limit the development of our country's industrial market for a certain period, even if the mainland's supply chain can be well guaranteed, but the economic level of improvement is not as fast as it is now.
However, the truth is completely opposite, the mainland's supply chain is not only stable, but also the economy is developing quite rapidly.
The reason for this situation is that, on the one hand, the mainland's industrial market system is indeed relatively complete, and the relevant development progress can also be guaranteed.
Even if some high-tech industries are restricted by export-oriented, they can still be solved through independent research and development.
In addition, the mainland's constantly changing export-oriented strategy has also provided important support for our country's economic development.
Second, India has been "sending money" to China
It has to be said that in terms of the current development state of the two countries, the United States has obviously completely failed in the trade war.
After deep analysis, the United States suddenly discovered that the reason for the original failure was precisely due to themselves.
As mentioned before, in order to develop some high-tech industries faster, the United States has indeed sacrificed the domestic basic scale manufacturing industry to a certain extent.
As a result, the local industrial market of United States has been strained at the supply chain level.
Originally, before the epidemic, United States could indeed get rid of its dependence on mainland goods through a series of export-oriented policy adjustments.
However, after the epidemic, the supply chain and industrial market development of many countries have been seriously affected by the epidemic.
Supply chain deficiencies in the United States have also become more serious and have even turned into a crisis.
In such a situation, the United States has to find new channels to make up for the lack of supply chains, and to this reason it has also set its sights on India.
As we all know, India is a country rich in natural resources and a large population base, and now India has surpassed the continent in terms of population and has become the world's most populous country.
This also means that India's industrial market is suitable for the development of some large-scale basic manufacturing industries. At the same time, there is also potential for development.
If the United States can provide corresponding investment in the India market and move factories or supply chains to India, then the problem can be better solved.
So is it really possible?
The answer is no, I have to say that United States's efforts in the past few years have indeed been in vain.
In previous developments, many countries did value the development potential of the India market and therefore invested in India.
Many overseas companies have even fully transferred their supply chains to India.
But the production capacity they expected was not reached.
After all, the infrastructure of the India market is relatively backward, and due to the factors of education, the technical level of workers is relatively low, and the corresponding production capacity cannot be guaranteed.
What's more, the supply chain of India's domestic market cannot rely on local industrial supply to achieve stability, but also depends on China.
According to the Global Trade Research Program, an India think tank, India's imports from China are growing twice as fast as India's overall imports.
Chinese goods flood India in all walks of life, especially electronic components such as circuit board batteries, and India is very dependent on our country's exports.
The Confederation of India Industry revealed that nearly two-thirds of the electronic component products imported by India currently come from China.
Source: Observer.com
It is also ironic that United States restricts the import of Chinese products on the one hand, and wants to transfer the supply chain to India, relying on India's productivity to meet the lack of domestic supply chain.
But what United States did not expect was that India's supply chain was very dependent on our country.
United States increased industrial investment in India and accelerated India's production capacity, which in turn led to an increase in our country's foreign trade export data.
The concept of a trade war was proposed, and sanctions and a series of measures were taken to restrict the flow of export-oriented products from the mainland into the domestic market, but India has been "sending money" to our country.
This is also what United States did not expect, and the media in the previous United States also published articles mentioning that the growing trade subsidies of India to China will become the United States weakness of China's trade war.
It seems that the United States is also aware of this problem.
3. Meaningless trade wars
In fact, as early as after the United States put forward the concept of trade war, our country has repeatedly pointed out that there is no absolute winner on the so-called trade war.
The United States wants to impose unilateral tariffs, deliberately build tax and commodity barriers, and prevent mainland goods from entering the United States market, so as to limit the rapid development of our country.
On the surface, this is indeed bad for the mainland's economy, but in reality it is also bad for United States.
After all, the scale of United States' basic manufacturing industry is seriously insufficient, and there is still a strong dependence on China's export products, and all this cannot be solved by the adjustment of export-oriented policies.
Because no country can compete with the mainland in terms of industrial completeness and the perfection of the industrial system, not to mention the related industrial efficiency and product yield rate.
The development of the industrial market in India has confirmed this problem.
What's more, from an international perspective, China's exports have become a very important part of the international supply chain.
No country can get rid of or achieve unilateral decoupling and disconnection.
Even if the United States can import products from other countries to supplement its domestic supply chain, in reality, it is only adding a third-party country as a hub on top of its links.
Such a round and round will not make United States' strategic policy on trade with China completely effective.
In the end, such a trade war is meaningless, and it is better to import goods directly from China and cancel the trade-targeted strategy.
epilogue
In order to maintain its world hegemony, the United States has set its sights on trade, trying to limit the rapid development of our country by raising tariffs on goods or building technical barriers.
But such a trade war is pointless, because the supply chain problems on the part of the United States cannot be solved by other means, but by relying on Chinese goods.
Even if the production supply chain is transferred to other countries, it will ultimately rely on Chinese product exports.
The state of the India market has proven this, and the continuation of these meaningless trade wars is not only bad for China, but also bad for United States, and bad for the whole world.
It seems that the follow-up United States will still have to redefine the bilateral trade relationship with China, is it a game or cooperation? The United States needs to think hard.
Resources:
Alpha Military 2024.9.3 "The trade war with China has been completely lost, and United States suddenly discovered that India has been "sending money" to China"
Historical Review 2024.9.4 "The trade war with China has been completely lost, and the United States suddenly discovered that India has been "sending money" to China"
Ji Shiguan 2024.9.4 "The trade war with China has been completely lost, and United States suddenly discovered that India has been "sending money" to China"