Source: Environmental Protection Circle
Author: Fu Bowang clan
This is good news and "bad news".
On August 11, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Comprehensive Green Transformation of Economic and Social Development" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), which is the first time that the central government has made systematic arrangements to accelerate the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.
▼Image source: Chinese government website
The "Opinions" put forward that it is necessary to vigorously develop green and low-carbon industries. By 2030, the scale of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will reach about 15 trillion yuan.
This means that in the next six years, the scale of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will nearly double.
However, the "Opinions" also put forward a number of deployments to promote the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, such as the implementation of a comprehensive conservation strategy, and the promotion of green transformation of consumption patterns. At a time when waste incineration plants are already generally "underfed", these measures may further reduce the total amount of waste at the source, exacerbating the dilemma of "not having enough to eat" in waste incineration plants.
1
The next six years
The scale of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry has nearly doubled
Without a doubt, this is a very important document in the field of ecological protection.
On August 11, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Comprehensive Green Transformation of Economic and Social Development". Its core requirement is to "form a spatial pattern, industrial structure, production mode, and way of life that conserves resources and protects the environment".
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the mainland's ecological and environmental protection work has made remarkable achievements, and Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment, has used four "unprecedented" to describe it - the importance of ecological civilization is unprecedented, the effectiveness of environmental governance is unprecedented, the scope of public participation is unprecedented, and the global ecological contribution is unprecedented.
Indeed, over the past 10 years, China's achievements in ecological and environmental protection have been obvious to all. However, in general, these achievements are mainly due to the promotion of the party and the government. However, in terms of the whole society jointly forming a "joint force" for ecological and environmental protection, we still have some shortcomings.
At such a time, it is necessary to accelerate the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, form a "joint force" of ecological and environmental protection in the whole society, and comprehensively promote the construction of a beautiful China.
Therefore, this document actually solves the problem of "source power" of ecological and environmental protection work. If this problem can be solved at the source, it can be "twice the result with half the effort" compared with remediation at the end.
In terms of industrial development, this document has also brought great benefits to the energy conservation and environmental protection industry.
For example, the "Opinions" proposes to vigorously develop green and low-carbon industries, which includes several measures:
Accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries, build a green manufacturing system and service system, and continuously increase the proportion of green and low-carbon industries in the total economy.
Accelerate the cultivation of competitive green and low-carbon enterprises, and create a number of leading enterprises and specialized new small and medium-sized enterprises.
Vigorously promote contract energy management, contract water management, third-party treatment of environmental pollution and other models and environmental management services oriented by environmental governance results.
Promote the high-quality development of the cultural industry and promote the in-depth integration and development of culture and tourism.
Actively encourage the accelerated development of green and low-carbon oriented new industries, new business formats and new business models.
In terms of goals, by 2030, the scale of energy conservation and environmental protection industry will also reach about 15 trillion yuan.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2022, the output value of the mainland's energy conservation and environmental protection industry has exceeded 8 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of more than 10%.
▼Image source: Chinese government website
That is, in the next six years, the scale of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will nearly double. This is undoubtedly a huge benefit for the relevant practitioners in the energy conservation and environmental protection industry.
2
Reduction at source
Waste incineration plants are "underfed" intensified
The comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development will not only bring benefits to the energy conservation and environmental protection industry, but also promote the in-depth transformation of the industry.
For example, the "Opinions" stipulate that it is necessary to implement a comprehensive conservation strategy and promote the green transformation of consumption patterns, which may reduce the amount of solid waste generated at the source.
The "Opinions" put forward that it is necessary to promote the classification of domestic waste and improve the utilization rate of resources. By 2030, the annual utilization of bulk solid waste will reach about 4.5 billion tons, and the output rate of major resources will increase by about 45% compared with 2020.
The "Opinions" also proposed to carry out green and low-carbon national actions, guide the public to save water and electricity, oppose extravagance and waste, promote the "CD-ROM action", resist excessive packaging, reduce the use of disposable products, and form a social atmosphere advocating ecological civilization.
As we all know, due to advanced construction, garbage classification, recycling and other reasons, the mainland garbage incineration plants have generally "not enough to eat", which was reported by CCTV's "Economic Half Hour" not long ago.
▼ Image source: CCTV
According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, as of August 2023, the number of waste incineration plants in the country has reached 925, with a daily disposal capacity of 1.035 million tons, exceeding the 14th Five-Year Plan target two years ahead of schedule. In 13 years, the number of waste incineration plants in China has increased nearly ninefold, and the processing capacity has increased by 16 times.
The advanced planning of waste incineration power plants and the reduction of primary waste sources have become the main reasons for the "insatiability" of waste incineration plants.
On the weekend, I attended the "2023-2024 Annual Meeting and Symposium of the Village and Town Waste Management Professional Committee of the China Urban Environmental Sanitation Association" in Shaanxi, and heard a friend from Northeast China say that all the garbage in their county is now transported to the garbage incineration plant in the next county for disposal, and there is no need to pay for freight and garbage disposal fees.
The reason for this is that the garbage incineration plant in the next county is now running low on garbage, and in order to keep the plant, it has to go to the neighboring county to "grab" the garbage.
Although in the short term, it does not cost a penny to get the garbage of a county to be disposed of. But the friend said that they are also worried about the formation of "path dependence" in the future, so they still need to plan ahead and plan their waste treatment facilities in advance.
In short, at a time when waste incineration plants are generally "underfed", the reduction in waste generation that may be brought about by the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development will further exacerbate the situation of "undereating" of waste incineration plants, which needs to be clearly understood in the industry.
3
Pollution is gone, industry is gone?
Environmental companies need to respond in advance
In fact, the impending crisis of the waste incineration plant is also a microcosm of the entire environmental protection industry.
It has to be said that the mainland's ecological and environmental protection work has been advanced too quickly, and it is dizzyingly fast. Even within the environmental protection industry, there are some "can't keep up with the situation".
A typical example of this is the air purifier industry. Although they are not traditionally considered to belong to the environmental protection industry, the development logic of this industry has a great similarity with the environmental protection industry.
I still remember that around 2013, Beijing had serious smog, PM2.5 exploded, and air purifier products were in short supply.
▼On January 20, 2016, "Henan Business Daily" reported that "the sales of air purifiers in one day have reached the past month"
At that time, some experts predicted that air purifiers would become the "fifth major appliance products" after color TVs, refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines. Many brands have crossed the border to this "blue ocean", hoping to get a piece of the pie.
As a result, before these brands could launch their own products, with the end of 2017, the smog in Beijing was less, the blue sky and white clouds returned, and the air purifiers gradually became unsellable.
A practitioner said in an interview with the media that in 2017, the air purification industry still has a market size of 17 billion. But by 2020, it will only be 6 billion, and many peers have withdrawn from this market.
The rise and fall of the air purifier industry has actually provided a very good inspiration for the environmental protection industry. Will the environmental protection industry be like the air purification industry, where the pollution is gone, and the industry is gone?
An important reason for the rapid decline of the air purification industry is that it underestimates the speed of China's air pollution control. In 2013, when those brands were optimistic about this market and poured into the market, it was actually the time when the "Ten Atmospheric Rules" were released. It is this important document that has played a role in changing China's air quality situation.
In fact, the promotion of the garbage classification policy has also played a similar role to a certain extent, resulting in a decrease in the amount of garbage entering the waste incineration plant. However, there are still many problems in the implementation of the garbage classification policy, resulting in its effect not as obvious as the "Ten Atmospheric Measures".
This time, the release of the "Opinions" is actually an "upgraded" version of the garbage classification policy. The impact of garbage classification is mainly on solid waste, while the impact of the Opinions may be reflected in water, gas, solids, soil and other aspects, resulting in a comprehensive reduction in the number of various pollutants.
To what extent will it have an impact on the environmental protection industry? In the end, it depends on the effect of the implementation of this policy, whether it is as vigorous as the "Ten Atmospheric Measures", or whether it is like boiling frogs in warm water like garbage classification.
But in the end, the difference is actually only a matter of time, with the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, the trend of waste reduction at the source has become a high probability event.
Is this good news or bad news for environmental companies? Depends on where you are, and how you cope.
For companies that already occupy a certain leading position, it can be bad news because the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development has subverted existing business models.
And for later challengers, this is just an opportunity to "overtake in corners", just like Chinese car companies surpass old fuel car brands with the help of new energy vehicles.
Of course, on the whole, it is still better than bad for the environmental protection industry. After all, the "Opinions" put forward the goal of "reaching about 15 trillion yuan in the scale of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry in 2023", which also reflects the great importance attached to ecological and environmental protection work. It's just that environmental protection enterprises need to change the current governance model that focuses more on the end, go to the front end, go to the source, move the focus of governance forward, and grasp the new opportunities brought by the green transformation of economic and social development.
In short, the underlying logic of the development of the environmental protection industry has changed, and the "era of great change" of the industry has arrived. And the release of the "Opinions" is to ring the class bell for the "era of great change".
Those who do not seek the overall situation are not enough to seek a domain, and those who do not seek the world are not enough to seek a time. All environmental protection enterprises should be soberly aware of this trend and make a good layout in advance, so as not to be abandoned by the times.