First, the concept of new urbanization has been on the rise
On August 1, the new urbanization concept changed and rose, and many stocks such as Yingjianke, Wenke and Zhejiang Construction Investment touched the daily limit, and new cities and exploration shares followed suit.
On the news side, on July 31, the State Council officially issued the "Five-Year Action Plan for the In-depth Implementation of the People-oriented New Urbanization Strategy" (hereinafter referred to as the "Action Plan"), which made arrangements for the overall requirements, key tasks, policy measures and organization and implementation of the new urbanization construction in the next five years.
The Action Plan clearly states that after five years of efforts, the channels for the rural migrant population to settle in cities have been further smoothed, the system of providing basic public services in permanent residence has been further improved, the coordinated promotion of new industrialization and urbanization in potential areas has been significantly accelerated, and a number of modern metropolitan areas with strong radiation driving force have been cultivated, the shortcomings of urban safety and resilience have been effectively filled, and the urbanization rate of permanent residents has increased to nearly 70%, so as to better support high-quality economic and social development.
Second, the mainland's new urbanization continues to advance
In recent years, the mainland's new urbanization has continued to advance. Previously, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that in 2024, it is necessary to organically combine the promotion of new urbanization with the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas, promote the two-way flow of various elements, promote the construction of new urbanization with county towns as important carriers, and form a new pattern of urban-rural integrated development.
According to the data, up to now, 19 urban agglomerations, including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, have carried more than 75% of the country's population, becoming the main form of new urbanization in the mainland. At the same time, the cultivation of modern metropolitan areas has been accelerated, and the development of large, medium and small cities has become more coordinated. By the end of 2023, the urbanization rate of the mainland's permanent population will reach 66.16%, achieving the target of the 14th Five-Year Plan two years ahead of schedule.
Huafu Securities believes that in terms of new urbanization, construction land is expected to be inclined to advantageous areas, and land reform is expected to continue to advance, such as the revitalization or reasonable withdrawal of idle homesteads, and the entry of rural collective construction land into the market.
Third, it involves 50 sub-industries
Flush data shows that there are currently 183 listed companies in the A-share new urbanization sector.
From the perspective of Shenwan's industry classification, the new urbanization sector involves as many as 50 industry types, of which the top five industries are engineering consulting services, garden engineering, water affairs and water treatment, infrastructure and municipal engineering, and decoration and decoration.
As the forerunner of urban and rural construction, engineering consulting services are a key part of the construction of a beautiful China, and an important force to promote the construction of new urbanization, the implementation of urban renewal actions and rural revitalization strategies.
The company is mainly engaged in engineering consulting and engineering contracting business in the highway industry, and has the qualification of "double comprehensive Grade A" for survey and design and the Grade A qualification for engineering consulting units, and can undertake the whole process consulting business in the field of engineering construction. Since 2014, the company has undertaken about one-third of the highway survey and design business in Guizhou Province. In recent years, the company has been actively expanding the fields of comprehensive transportation, smart industry, ecological and environmental protection, rural revitalization and new energy based on years of scientific and technological innovation capabilities and industrial chain expansion capabilities around the national strategic planning.
In the field of landscape engineering, the main business of Hangzhou Garden is landscape architecture design services and general contracting services with integrated solutions as the core. In 2023, Hangzhou Garden will establish a grandson company, Tianyejia (Hangzhou) Cultural Tourism Industry Development Co., Ltd., to continuously innovate and explore, and create a "Tianyejia" rural cultural tourism brand. Through "whole village operation", "art empowerment" and "business format building", we will explore the connotation of local culture in the village, revitalize the idle resources in the village, and create industries that can continue to bring revenue, so as to help revitalize the rural industry and improve the energy level.
In the field of water affairs and water treatment, Kejingyuan is an innovative comprehensive service provider specializing in water environment system governance, providing water treatment products, water environment comprehensive treatment solutions and project operation services around the needs of customers for water environment treatment. The company provides overall solutions for water environment treatment, and its main products and services include water treatment products, water environment comprehensive treatment solutions and project operation services. The company's core technologies mainly include rapid biological treatment technology and spore transfer technology.
In the field of steel structure, Southeast Grid focuses on the field of large-span space steel structure, high-rise heavy steel structure and light steel structure, and is a leading enterprise in the field of space steel structure. The reconstruction and expansion project of Tianjin Binhai Airport, the T3A main building project of Terminal 3 of Beijing Capital International Airport, the steel structure project of Wuxi Museum, Revolutionary Exhibition Hall and Science and Technology Museum were awarded the Zhejiang Provincial Construction Steel Structure King Kong Award; The National Aquatics Center (Water Cube) was awarded the 8th Tienyo Jeme Civil Engineering Award by the Chinese Civil Engineering Society
Fourth, the performance of concept stocks is both ice and fire
In terms of performance, as of July 31, 57 listed companies in the new urbanization sector have issued interim performance forecasts.
According to the classification of performance forecast types, there are 25 companies that continue to lose money, 9 companies that pre-decrease and pre-increase, 8 companies that have lost their first money, 3 companies that have increased slightly, and 3 companies that have turned around losses.
According to the upper limit of the change in net profit in the forecast, Longquan shares, Nenghui Technology, Qinglong Pipe Industry, Oriental Group, Pubang shares, Huaxi Energy, and Greentown Water are expected to double.
Among them, Longquan Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in the production, sales, installation and after-sales service of concrete pipes such as prestressed steel cylinder concrete pipes (PCCP), as well as the research and development, production and sales of metal pipe fittings made of medium and high pressure alloy materials.
The company expects a significant increase in performance from January to June 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 14 million to 20 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 427.78% to 653.98%, and an estimated basic earnings per share of 0.0249 to 0.0356 yuan.
The main reasons for the change in performance are: first, the orders of large projects in Xinjiang, Guangdong, Liaoning and other regions have been delivered stably, the order quality is good, and the overall gross profit margin has improved; The second is to actively carry out the action of "strict and meticulous work, quality and efficiency", and the related expenses have decreased compared with the same period last year.
In contrast, Guosheng Technology is a different story. Guosheng Technology is mainly engaged in landscape business and photovoltaic business. The company expects a pre-loss in performance from January to June 2024, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be -129 million to -64.35 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2496.69% to 1298.35%.
According to the upper limit of net profit in the forecast, CCCC Construction is expected to reach 640 million yuan, Shantui is expected to reach 453 million yuan, Yuhetian is expected to reach 349 million yuan, Tianjian Group is expected to reach 290 million yuan, and Zhejiang Construction is expected to reach 195 million yuan.
The company expects that there will be a loss in the first half of 2024, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be -5 billion yuan to -4.5 billion yuan; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses will be -6.4 billion yuan to -5.9 billion yuan.
Other recommendations to focus on:
Pay attention to all kinds of state-owned real estate enterprises: urban construction development, Tianfang development, Zhejiang Construction Investment, Zhonghua Enterprise, Shahe shares, Zhujiang shares, Chongqing Development, Tianjian Group;
Pay attention to the leaders of the real estate industry chain: Decai Co., Ltd., Leo Planning, Guojian Group, Shenzhen Ruijie, Ruina Intelligence, Huatie Emergency, Oriental Garden.
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