GPI, Green Industry, Prosperity Index, Customer Research
The July 2024 Industrial Green Prosperity Index GPI (Issue 79) was released on August 1, 2024.
According to the July 2024 GPI survey:
In July 2024, the prosperity of the green industry will decline;
From the perspective of sub-indexes, the green industry as a whole has entered a period of adjustment, and insufficient demand has become the most important factor dragging down the prosperity of the green industry. production has slowed down; The decline in the subsidy delivery rate and the slow turnover of accounts receivable dragged the capital index to a historical low; However, the cost index remained at a relatively low level.
In terms of industries, driven by large-scale equipment renewal and energy-saving and carbon-reduction action policies, the green environmental protection special equipment and materials manufacturing industry and the renewable energy power generation industry have bucked the trend and ranked in the top two of all green sub-industries.
In terms of the scale of enterprises, the prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises has improved and their resilience has been highlighted.
According to Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, the construction of ecological civilization has become an indispensable and important part of the overall layout of the "five-in-one" construction of socialism in the mainland. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out: "Building an ecological civilization is a millennium plan for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China further pointed out: "Chinese modernization is the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature. …… We adhere to sustainable development, adhere to the principle of giving priority to conservation, protection and natural restoration, protect nature and the ecological environment like protecting eyes, and unswervingly follow the path of civilized development with production development, affluent life and good ecology, so as to realize the sustainable development of the Chinese nation. ”
As a pioneer in green finance in mainland China, IB has been working hard in the field of green finance for 18 years since the first energy efficiency loan was launched in 2006, has a complete green finance product line, and has accumulated many customers in green finance segments. Relying on these customer bases, the IB Carbon Finance Research Institute conducted a questionnaire survey and constructed the "IB Green Prosperity Index (GPI)" based on it, aiming to track the prosperity of the development of green industries in a timely manner and look forward to future trends.
The July 2024 GPI Index is the 79th issue overall, and we will continue to publish the index and analysis every month, so stay tuned.
1. The prosperity of green industries has declined. The GPI index for July 2024 was 46.6%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. In July, the green industry boom continued to pull back, the comprehensive prosperity index fell to a relatively low historical level, and the expected index also declined, showing a certain synchronization with the recent trend of the carbon neutrality index. Historically, the trend of the GPI Expectation Index of large and medium-sized enterprises has been in high synchrony with the rise and fall of the Carbon Neutrality Index (see Chart 1).
2. Insufficient demand, slowing down production, and further increasing the pressure on capital turnover. From the perspective of sub-indexes, the results of the GPI survey in July show that the green industry as a whole has entered a period of adjustment. In terms of supply and demand, insufficient demand has become the most important factor dragging down the prosperity of the green industry, the new orders index and the orders in hand index in July decreased by 3.2 and 3.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and in the course of this month's survey, nearly half of the surveyed enterprises will "insufficient demand" as the main difficulty faced in their business process, ranking first among all difficulties, affected by insufficient demand and expected decline, the production of green enterprises in July has also slowed down, The production index and capacity utilization index decreased by 4.9 and 5.3 percentage points respectively from the previous month. In terms of capital turnover, this month's survey shows that the decline in the rate of subsidies for green industries and the slow turnover of accounts receivable have dragged the capital index to a historical low. The cost index remained at a relatively low level, and the cost pressure on green industries eased as the PPI continued to be negative year-on-year (see Chart 3).
3. Large-scale equipment renewal, energy conservation and carbon reduction actions have boosted the demand and prosperity of the green environmental protection special equipment and materials manufacturing industry and the renewable energy power generation industry. Despite the overall boom of the green industry, driven by large-scale equipment renewal and energy-saving and carbon-reduction action policies, the prosperity of the green environmental protection special equipment and materials manufacturing industry and the renewable energy power generation industry has increased against the trend, ranking in the top two of all green sub-industries. In July, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) issued the Measures on Supporting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods, with the NDRC taking the lead in arranging about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods. The "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Water-saving Industry" was issued to promote the upgrading of water-saving products and equipment; Action plans for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the electrolytic aluminum industry and data centers have been introduced one after another, and the update and application of green, low-carbon and energy-saving equipment in the two industries have been promoted. The introduction of relevant policies continued to push up the demand for green environmental protection, low-carbon and energy-saving equipment updates, and the new orders index of the green environmental protection special equipment and materials manufacturing industry increased by 6.9 percentage points month-on-month to a high of 61.1% this month, and the industry prosperity index also increased by 2.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. In addition, the action plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the electrolytic aluminum industry and data center both takes increasing the proportion of renewable energy utilization as one of the key tasks, which also promotes the new orders index and prosperity index of the renewable energy power generation industry to rise by 6.8 and 4.1 percentage points respectively this month compared with the previous month.
On July 25, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Several Measures on Supporting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in" (Fa Gai Huan Zi [2024] No. 1104), which clearly stated that the National Development and Reform Commission will take the lead in arranging about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in. On the basis of equipment renewal and recycling in the fields of industry, environmental infrastructure, transportation, logistics, education, cultural tourism, medical care, etc., the scope of support will be expanded to equipment renewal in the fields of energy and power, old elevators, and energy conservation, carbon reduction and safety transformation in key industries, and dynamically adjusted in combination with the actual situation.
On July 22, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Water Resources and other five departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Water-saving Industries" (Fa Gai Huan Zi [2024] No. 898), which proposed to strengthen the supply of water-saving products and equipment and promote the upgrading of water-saving products and equipment. Support enterprises to increase R&D, design and production, build a water-saving product and equipment supply system from basic raw materials to terminal consumer goods, and promote the digital, intelligent and green development of water-saving product and equipment manufacturing. Regularly publish the "National Mature and Applicable Water-Saving Technology Promotion Catalogue" and the "Catalogue of Industrial Water-saving Processes, Technologies and Equipment Encouraged by the State", formulate the national water-saving product certification catalogue and incorporate it into the green product certification and labeling system. Promote advanced water-saving equipment and products, promote large-scale water-saving equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, and accelerate the elimination of outdated water-using products and equipment.
On July 23, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments issued the "Special Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry", aiming to reach 30% by the end of 2025, the production capacity above the energy efficiency benchmark level of the electrolytic aluminum industry will reach 30%, the production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level will complete technological transformation or elimination and withdrawal, the proportion of renewable energy utilization in the industry will reach more than 25%, and the output of recycled aluminum will reach 11.5 million tons. Through the implementation of energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation, the electrolytic aluminum industry will save about 2.5 million tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 6.5 million tons from 2024 to 2025. Key tasks include optimizing industrial layout and capacity regulation, vigorously promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation, implementing non-fossil energy substitution, promoting the coordinated green development of the industrial chain, and promoting digital and intelligent upgrading.
On July 23, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued the "Special Action Plan for Green and Low-Carbon Development of Data Centers" (Fagai Huan Zi [2024] No. 970), aiming to make the layout of data centers across the country more reasonable by the end of 2025, with an overall shelf rate of no less than 60%, an average power utilization efficiency of less than 1.5, an average annual growth rate of 10% for renewable energy utilization, and a significant increase in energy efficiency and carbon efficiency per unit of computing power. Key tasks include improving the layout of data center construction, tightening the energy and water efficiency requirements for new projects, promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation of existing projects, improving the utilization of renewable energy (by the end of 2025, the proportion of green electricity in new data centers in national hub nodes will exceed 80%), strengthening resource conservation and intensive utilization, and promoting the application of energy-saving technologies and equipment.
4. The prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises has been improved, and the resilience has been highlighted. In terms of enterprise size, this month's GPI survey results show that the prosperity index of large enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises and small enterprises decreased by 4.5, 3.1 and 5.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month, while the prosperity index of large and medium-sized enterprises rebounded by 1.6 percentage points against the trend, highlighting resilience. The differentiation of enterprises of different sizes is still the same.
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