I never expected that the corn in the Northeast would fall "in a hurry". What I didn't expect was that at the grassroots level in the Northeast, many grain dealers had a large amount of corn in their hands. This is a fact that many people in the Northeast market do not recognize or admit, but whether the fact is recognized or not, it is really there.
What I didn't expect was that these grassroots grain dealers were very "stubborn" - they didn't give up until they didn't see the Yellow River, they didn't see the coffin and didn't drop the price, and they had to "gamble" with the market. Why is this mentality occurring? Three words: unwilling.
1. Some people have seen profits, but because they want to obtain higher profits, they miss out on high prices. Now that we have lost money selling grain at a lower price, it is impossible to accept it, so we must make a gamble.
2. Some people have 11 moisture corn in their hands, why should I sell you such a good moisture at a low price, how to compare with me with drying grain and high moisture, such a price is not acceptable.
To sum up, it can be seen that large traders have been "trembling" by the market and do not dare to have a large amount of corn in their hands, while the grain dealers at the grassroots level have basically not been seriously injured in the market in recent years, so they have the courage and funds to "gamble".
It's one thing to gamble, it's another thing to see if these "cute" grassroots grain sellers can hold on to the end? Is it smiling proudly, or crying and fainting in the toilet? There is a high probability that the latter can be seen.
Unwilling, unconvinced, is it true? In fact, it's just a competition with yourself and your own money.
Hello friends, today is July 31, 2024, the last day of the ups and downs of July, and Northeast Deep Processing has staged a "price" opera for everyone. Jilin Songyuan Cargill, who was in the future for a long time, directly brushed a "sense of presence", and the purchase price of 14 water was 2290 yuan, and the price was 20 yuan.
Subsequently, the deep processing of Heilongjiang "invariably" began to drop the price, although the range of the fall is not large, but basically belongs to the toad crawling on the surface of the foot, not biting the diaphragm to respond to people, little by little to eat away at your expectations and confidence.
At the same time, the unsatisfactory price of the north and the south has also become a "double-edged sword" of corn in the Northeast - the main reason is the increase in reserves. On the one hand, the increase in reserves solves the problem of farmers' difficulty in selling grain, and on the other hand, it also gives some traders the opportunity to cash in profits, and on the other hand, it also raises the bottom of corn prices.
However, with such a large output in Northeast China, it is basically unrealistic to want the four northeastern provinces to use such a large amount of corn for their own use, and they must be outflowed in order to achieve a balance between supply and demand.
On the other side of Shanhaiguan, corn is cost-effective, in addition to the rigid demand, how to purchase a large number of Northeast corn? Therefore, the fundamental reason for the formation of the north-south disagreement - increasing reserves, and market intervention with one hand.
Do the benefits outweigh the harms as a result of such interventions, or do the disadvantages outweigh the benefits? Everyone has a different understanding.
This brings us back to the essence of the problem: is corn rising in the south and falling in the northeast? Or is it that the price falls in the south and the price rises in the north? I'm sorry, my personal ability is limited, I don't know, let's guess!
On the other hand, the corn market in North China, represented by Shandong deep processing, has appeared a "dramatic" market, the day before yesterday was the "brush brush" rise, and yesterday began to "brush the brush" price. Could it be that the number of factory cars has increased again?
Wrong, big mistake, special mistake! Now the operation of deep processing in Shandong is very obvious - there are cars to fall, there are no cars to fall, and the purpose is to drop the price. Sell, drop the price, don't sell, and drop the price, that is, fall to fall. Why?
It is very obvious that the new season corn is getting closer and closer to the market, and the enterprise adopts the strategy of "use and pick", as long as the production and processing of the day is met, the excess vehicles will be priced, regardless of whether there is a car in front of the door. If you need to increase the volume, the price will be adjusted, so there is a very frequent fluctuation.
It is too early to see an inflection point in North China corn in the short term.
The above personal views are for reference only, do not represent correctness, and are not used as an investment basis.
The latest corn prices in the country on July 31, 2024
Anhui COFCO Biochemical: 2260 yuan, 20 yuan.
Ningxia Yipin Biological: 14 moisture 1.22 yuan, 5 centi.
Shandong Ronghai grain: 1.238 yuan, down 5 cents.
Shandong Xiwang starch: 1.253 yuan, 3 centi.
Shandong Tianli Pharmaceutical: 1.197 yuan, down 3%.
Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.215 yuan, down 3%.
Shandong Ensign Industry: 1.257 yuan, down 3%.
Shandong Baolingbao Biological: 1.191 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Weifang Shengtai Pharmaceutical: 1.193 yuan, down 3%.
Shandong Rice Energy Biology: 1.18 yuan, 1.185 yuan (with tickets), up 1 point.
Shandong Linqing Deneng Golden Corn: 1.165 yuan, 1.175 yuan (with tickets), down 5 percent.
Shandong Shouguang Juneng Golden Corn: 1.197 yuan, 1.202 yuan (with tickets), down 3 percent.
Jilin Songyuan Cargill: 14 moisture 2290 yuan, 20 yuan.
Heilongjiang Zhaodong Chengfu: 1.175 yuan, down 5 percent.
Heilongjiang Qinggang Longfeng: 1.165 yuan, down 5 cents.
Heilongjiang Bei'an Xiangyu: 14 water 2270 yuan, 5 yuan.
Heilongjiang Fujin Xiangyu: 14 water 2205 yuan, 20 yuan.
Heilongjiang Zhaodong COFCO: 14 moisture third class 2290 yuan, second class 2300 yuan. $10.
Heilongjiang Hailun Guotou Biological: 14 moisture 1.14 yuan, 15 moisture 1.1263 yuan, 5 centi.