In the summer of 2021, when the world's eyes were focused on Afghanistan, former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai sent a message to the outside world through a video: he and his daughter are still in Kabul and are seeking a peaceful solution to Afghanistan's problems with the Taliban.
At that time, the Taliban maintained a "blitzkrieg" high-speed advance, and the security situation in Afghanistan continued to deteriorate, but Karzai, as the former president, did not choose to leave.
Afghanistan has changed
According to the Doha agreement reached between the U.S. military and the Taliban, more than 8,400 U.S. troops in Afghanistan began to withdraw to China in May 2021 and will be completely withdrawn in November Afghanistan.
But one United States officer who was doing the aftermath at the time said: "They are still superstitious that the US military will always protect them, or blame the failure on the fact that the US military did not have air strikes." ”
By July, the Taliban had completed the encirclement of 16 provincial capitals across the country without waging war, and analysts noted at the time that the Taliban were looking for that tipping point.
Biden described himself as "the last United States president to deal with the issue of the United States military presence in Afghanistan," and he also stated that Washington is willing to "get out of the quagmire," but on the condition that Afghanistan does not attack the United States; The Taliban, who have been fighting guerrilla warfare in the mountains for so many years, naturally understand what the United States mean, and they do not dare to act rashly before the withdrawal of US troops is completed.
The U.S. troops retreated from west to east, and the Taliban followed like a flood, and the Afghanistan defenders who had relied on the United States in the past dispersed almost before the Taliban charged, and Ghazni, known as the "strongest provincial city", only held out for 48 hours, paying the price of 110 deaths.
In order to seize the capital of Afghanistan as soon as possible, the Taliban wrote on social media that they would not use force to seize the capital, hoping that women would go to protected areas and that the money of banks and merchants would not be interfered with by armed groups.
At the same time, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani also threatened: "We will fight to the last soldier." ”
After expressing his attitude, he also began to give orders, and the troops that could be mobilized were the more than 20,000 special forces, but for several months in a row, these elite troops were also busy, there were wars everywhere, and they were also busy like firefighters.
But in the end, they also found that there was actually no result: the newly regained field was quickly recaptured by the Taliban, which became a common phenomenon.
As for why it is so tragic, Rogio, a senior fellow at the United States Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said: "The Ghani government is corrupt and incompetent, the soldiers in the army have not received their salaries for months, and the military generals will also falsely report the number of soldiers, that is, what they call 'ghost soldiers', in order to cheat the military salary, and they have to face the Taliban who are already full of confidence." ”
The only thing Ghani can rely on is the panic of the Afghanistan people.
According to a United States 2016 survey, more than 7 out of Afghanistan people are scared when they see the Taliban; More than 8 out of 10 people do not sympathize with the Taliban.
But other surveys similarly show that Afghanistan see no hope in the face of many things.
For example, Abdullah Hamim, a member of the Taliban, told the Associated Press: "I used to go to live in the city in response to ·the call of the central government, but the houses and children's education promised by the government are illusory, and when we are in the mountains, at least the Taliban will give us food and shelter." ”
So, after only three months in the city, Abdullah · Hamim returned to the Taliban.
During the Ghani administration, the government also actively cracked down on former President Karzai, tracked Karzai's brother in the name of anti-corruption, and accused him of selling restricted military zones for the development of private homes, while Karzai seized on the scandal of US air strikes on civilians to accuse the Ghani government of becoming a vassal of foreign occupation forces.
From this, it was inferred from then that that Karzai had a good chance of establishing cooperation with the Taliban.
Because Karzai's family business was not affected after the Taliban seized Kandahar, and his own militia was not disarmed, which may be one of the reasons why Karzai did not leave Afghanistan.
Around late August, the capital of Afghanistan, Kabul, was taken by the Taliban in a near-bloodless manner, and President Ashraf Ghani, who claimed to "fight to the end," fled and reportedly made his way to the U.A.E..
A large number of Afghanistan tried to board the planes of the United States, and many had accidents: some fell heavily from the planes, and some were shot and killed by the US military.
Karzai stayed behind and also met with representatives of the Taliban, which caused quite a stir.
In fact, there are many reasons why Karzai should not go.
Karzai with deep roots
Conflict with Ghani is only a weak reason left by Karzai, after all, until the Taliban actually come to power, they will have an absolute say in Afghanistan, and for other politicians, even former presidents, they only have a choice.
Karzai does have a lot to offer compared to other politicians of the past.
Born into a political family and having served as a high-ranking official in Afghanistan for two generations, he grew up attending the best schools in Afghanistan in the hope that he would contribute to the Zahir dynasty.
In the sixties and seventies of the last century, the Zahir dynasty continued to promote the process of secularization, the social status of Afghanistan women has also improved, and the rapid social progress has led to the same rapid economic development, but in Afghanistan, which is full of instability, it seems that no government can last.
In 1973, while Zahir was visiting Italy, his cousin Daoud staged a coup d'état that forced Zahir to step down.
The Karzai family was defeated by Zahir's own exile, and Karzai also briefly followed the family overseas, where he also studied for a while.
Although the family status has temporarily declined, after all, they have been operating in Afghanistan for so many years, no matter who is in power, they will still give some face; Later, Karzai himself became president and had a large number of supporters, so the Taliban would not be rude to him.
Moreover, Karzai's intersection with the Taliban began not in 2021, but in 1982.
After graduating from the University of India with a master's degree in political science that year, he also gave up the opportunity to go to United States and stay in India, and arrived at the border with Afghanistan through Pakistan to participate in the anti-Soviet battle, which the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and the war between the two sides continued.
At that time, the Taliban was also fighting against the Soviet Union, so the United States naturally supported Afghanistan and all internal anti-Soviet organizations, but the Taliban's power was still very small.
In the course of the joint battle, the Soviet-backed regime was overthrown and the anti-Soviet Rabbani government came to power, at which time the new government recognized Karzai's ability and the influence of his family behind him, and appointed him deputy foreign minister of Afghanistan.
Judging from this history, Karzai has a good impression of the Taliban, after all, he was a comrade-in-arms in the past; The Taliban also have a crush on Karzai and want him to take up a position in the government.
However, the so-called "favorability" is also limited, and Karzai does not have much favorability towards the Taliban.
Because his vision is broader, he is unwilling to accept too strong religious consciousness, which is also the main reason for his dissatisfaction.
Considering the future of Afghanistan, Karzai also wanted to restore the old king Zahir, a move that completely annoyed the Taliban, and later even Karzai's father was assassinated, and the two sides became completely enemies.
It was only after the United States launched the war in Afghanistan that Karzai was elected as the new president, the first democratically elected president of Afghanistan.
His style of doing things is very shrewd, and he is also very good at mediating the relationship between the parties, which has allowed him to sit in this position for 12 years; But another problem comes, because of the restrictions of the United States and various tribes in Afghanistan, this makes Karzai's real power actually not large, often depending on the faces of all parties.
Because of his lack of power, Karzai had no way to restrict the development of the Taliban, so he simply temporarily put aside his hatred and embarked on the path of "peaceful development".
It is for this reason that the United States is dissatisfied with Karzai, and the United States also finds that the Taliban's power is gradually increasing.
Karzai couldn't solve the problem, so he simply resigned, and the United States also needed a more obedient person, so they chose Ghani.
Ghani is a completely pro-American person, which is different from Karzai, and although Karzai was supported by United States in the past, it is important that the Taliban also know that he is not completely with United States.
In the-for-tat confrontation with Ghani, Karzai had a common discourse with the Taliban in the face of a common enemy.
However, Karzai who remained only had the right to speak out, and there was not much he could do to change the status quo in Afghanistan.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, he added: "The Taliban have not fulfilled their promises and have not established an inclusive government. ”
On September 28, the Taliban announced the continuation of King Zahir's 1964 constitution, but the principle of separation of powers, which is at the heart of the constitution, has not been implemented in Afghanistan, which means that this has become an empty shell.
At the time, the views of countries around the world were generally not optimistic that the Taliban could lead Afghanistan out of its predicament.
Afghanistan has always been a least developed country, and the Taliban came to power facing far more economic hardship than the Ghani government, and the United States government froze more than $9 billion in assets in the central bank and denied the Taliban $450 million in IMF funds.
The two successive authorizations issued by the United States are nominally to provide humanitarian assistance to the Afghanistan people, but in fact they are still sanctioning the Taliban.
At the same time, the United States strictly prohibits its businessmen from trading with Taliban personnel and does not allow them to provide them with funds, goods or services, and even the World Bank is unwilling to lend money to the Taliban.
Due to the long war, many infrastructure facilities such as houses, electricity, and medical care have been destroyed, and the Taliban are also very anxious.
In September of that year, the United Nations Food Programme (WFP) and UNICEF warned that 1 million Afghanistan children would die of severe acute malnutrition without immediate assistance and treatment.
Karzai also lashed out at United States in an interview: "The United States lost the war not only because they chose to withdraw its troops, but because they bombed Afghanistan a few years ago." ”
In Karzai's view, it was United States's brutal actions that made the construction of the Afghanistan extremely slow.
Although he did not leave Afghanistan, because he was not the same person with the Taliban after all, their differences have always continued, and the Taliban certainly do not want to continue to be pressured by the former president at this time, and it is best to "shut up" him.
In December 2022, the Washington Post also reported on the former president's recent situation: he has been under house arrest for more than a year and has been closely monitored by the Taliban.
Resources
- 20 years of "restoration" of the Taliban in Afghanistan Roshan Ai tank armored vehicles
- Challenges and Solutions for Afghanistan's Reconstruction Zhu Yongbiao People's Forum