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01 Domestic fresh milk prices
According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, as of July 18, the average purchase price inside and outside the contract in 10 major fresh milk producing areas such as Inner Mongolia/Hebei was 3.23 yuan/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month and 13.9% year-on-year.
02 Bulk dairy spot offer
The prices of the main bulk dairy products offered in the spot offer are as follows: (yuan/ton)
The above prices are quoted for special treatment in the actual price offer 03
04 Foreign futures offers in the same period
05 exchange rate
The trend of the RMB against the USD/EUR exchange rate.
06Important information on the domestic market
1. China's economy: According to the monitoring of the market prices of 50 important means of production in 9 categories in the national circulation field, compared with the first half of July 2024, 15 products have risen, 31 have decreased, and 4 have remained the same; Energy products such as oil and gas and hogs were the main gainers, while metals and other agricultural products underperformed.
2. United States economic related: (1) The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter of United States was 2.9%, the estimate was 2.7%, and the previous value was 3.7%. (2) United States' preliminary annualized real GDP in the second quarter rose by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, expected to rise by 2.0%, and the final value in the first quarter rose by 1.4%; The overall performance was better than expected.
3. Palestinian-Israeli/Russian-Ukrainian: (1) Israel and Lebanon fought each other, and the scope of the war expanded, and (2) Ukraine's negotiating attitude softened, and the Russian army continued to attack.
4. Domestic raw milk: As the country enters the off-season of consumption, although the production has declined due to the scorching heat, the excess milk source powder spraying has intensified again compared with June.
5. Major manufacturers/origins in New Zealand: New Zealand manufacturers have increased the quotation of whey protein products, indicating that in the future, due to the poor return of traditional cheese/casein, whey protein concentrate products will be tight overall.
6. International Industry/Origin Dynamics: Major United States producers plan to increase the supply of WPI products to the market in the fourth quarter.
7. This week's GDTPulse results: Whole milk powder rose slightly, skim milk powder fell slightly.
8. European and American dairy futures performance: the overall milk fat performance is stronger than that of milk powder, and the resonance of skim milk powder in various countries has declined.
9. Crude oil: The turnaround in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations weighed on oil prices, but the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East and the better-than-expected United States economy in the second quarter once again supported oil prices.
10. Palm oil: Palm oil prices have been subdued due to the expected uptick in Malaysian palm oil production and the poor performance of competing vegetable oil products.
11. Sugar: Sugarcane crushing in south-central Brazil decreased by 11% from a year earlier, as precipitation affected field operations of sugarcane crops, slightly boosting sugar prices.
12. Domestic main feed grain prices: the national average price of corn was 2.59 yuan/kg, flat week-on-week, down 13.1% year-on-year; The price in the main producing areas was 2.41 yuan/kg, up 0.4% month-on-month; The main sales area was 2.69 yuan / kg, up 0.4% from last week; The average price of soybean meal was 3.55 yuan/kg, down 1.9% week-on-week and 20% year-on-year; The continuous rainfall has made it more difficult to store wheat, and farmers and small traders with poor storage conditions have increased their willingness to sell wheat, and the short-term regional increase has brought price reduction opportunities to local milling enterprises, and it is expected that wheat prices will continue to fluctuate slightly in the near future. The wheat market was stable and weak, with a local decline of 3-5%. Among them, Zhoukou Wudeli fell 5%, quoted at 1.245 yuan / catty; Suiping Wudeli fell 5%, quoted at 1.245 yuan / catty; Linyi Wudeli fell 5%, quoted at 1.26 yuan / catty; Huasheng flour fell 5%, quoted at 1.255 yuan / catty; Shanxian Feixiang flour fell 3%, and the price was 1.257 yuan / catty.
07 Dairy online market insights
Whole milk powder: The spot price of imported whole milk powder has risen due to the domestic overselling of a large international trader, but after breaking through 27,500 yuan, the transaction has been suppressed.
Skimmed milk powder: The overall offer of skim milk powder is stable, and it is rumored that a large number of traders will arrive in August, and the market is looking forward to the next step in prices.
Butter: Butter prices were generally firm, with prices continuing to remain above 1,500 due to fewer arrivals from industrial brands, slightly higher than those of catering brands; Anhydrous cream continues to remain stable, supply and demand are flat, it is rumored that there are small domestic factories of anhydrous cream on the market, the price is low, but considering the complexity of raw materials and product quality, there are few responses.
Cheese: In terms of cream cheese, the new Australian system continues to be the main force of shipments, with strong supply and demand; Due to the high price of European and American products and the risk of future trade wars, the tide will recede significantly; All kinds of cream cheese in China benefit from the low price of cream in China, and all processing plants are working hard to promote it; Cheda Masu: Cheda cheese is strong, domestic consumption is stable, and the price is at a low level due to the Australian low-price inventory of the former North American company suppressing the market; The price of massu cheese rebounded due to the cessation of selling goods by the sub-leading enterprises; The main domestic manufacturer of Masu curd block won the large order of the retail cheese giant, and the quotation began to rise.
Lactose and low-protein whey: Lactose is stable, and low-protein whey is stronger with the outer market.
Varieties of concentrated protein: the price of WPC has increased due to the continuous increase in the external disk; MPC market quotations rebounded; Casein still continues to bottom; RC prices are no longer declining except for goods that have more than half of their shelf life.
Light cream: New Zealand cream supply is sufficient, Europe due to less follow-up orders, market dumping and high prices of new goods coexist, domestic milk cream flowers, domestic frozen cream continues to hit the market at a low level, imported frozen cream is hard to find.
UHT milk: The sluggish attitude of milk prices has not changed, and the non-contract milk sources in major producing areas continue to be at a low level of less than 1.8 yuan, and the tragic situation of pastures is difficult to describe.
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Report:
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GDT：
●2024 GDT Tender Time Reminder
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