#头条首发大赛#
Recently, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky suddenly expressed his willingness to hold peace talks with Russia President Vladimir Putin, hoping to end the "white-hot phase" of the war by the end of this year, and stressed that no one wants the conflict to "last another decade or longer." Later, he also wrote on social media: "I think we all understand that we must end the war as soon as possible so that people don't lose their lives." ”
Zelensky's attitude can be described as a 180-degree change, before he directly legislated to prohibit negotiations with Putin, and clearly drew a red line for peace talks, that is, the Russian army retreated to the Russian-Ukrainian border in 1991, that is, Russia not only spit out all the territory occupied after the war in 2022, but also give up Crimea occupied in 2014, and never give up without forcing Putin out of power.
The main reason for Zelensky's change of attitude is that he is worried about Trump's return to the White House. Trump firmly opposes United States' continued assistance to Ukraine, and threatens to pressure Ukraine to give up part of its territory once he takes office, so as to end the war within 24 hours. This time the catastrophe will not die, the support rate has soared, Trump is really likely to "enter the palace twice", Zelensky, as a puppet of the United States, of course, must "worship the dock" in advance and vote for his favor.
Okay, let's assume that if Trump does come to power and brokers a truce between Russia and Ukraine, what will be included in this truce conditions?
First of all, in terms of territory, there is a high probability that the existing front will directly draw a ceasefire line, which is determined by the strength of the two sides at the moment. Needless to say, Ukraine will not be able to fight for a day without the support of the West, and there is a shortage of soldiers, and it is simply unable to launch another attack; Although Russia can still maintain the offensive, the second dozen Kharkiv has proved that the Russian army is no longer capable of occupying large areas of Ukraine's territory, because in the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine, whoever attacks suffers losses, both waste people and equipment, it takes several months, loses tens of thousands of people, and can only gnaw a few villages, which is really a loss-making deal. Therefore, a ceasefire on the spot is a real hole card in the hearts of both sides. Although Russia offered the condition that the Ukrainian army withdraw from the four oblasts, and Ukraine insisted that the Russian army withdraw to the 1991 border, these were all bargains during negotiations, and after some bargaining, the two sides finally ceasefire in situ.
On the political front, Ukraine will not be demilitarized, let alone "denazified", it is unlikely to join NATO, and the hope of joining the EU is very slim. What you can't get on the battlefield, you can't get it at the negotiating table, since the two sides cease fire on the spot, then the remaining half of Ukraine is an area beyond Russia's control, how large the army Ukraine wants to build, how many advanced weapons to buy, whether to be ruled by "Nazis", Russia is powerless to interfere, so the two goals of "demilitarization and denazification" put forward by Putin before the war cannot be achieved.
But Ukraine will not be carried into NATO and the EU by eight sedan chairs because of "meritorious service in resisting Russia". In the war between Russia and Ukraine, although the Russian army fought hard, it also made NATO see Moscow's determination to maintain the strategic buffer zone, and the possibility of another war between Russia and Ukraine is very great. Once Ukraine is admitted as a full member, the next time Russia and Ukraine go to war, NATO will have to end openly, and this is precisely what NATO is trying to avoid. Therefore, it is unlikely that NATO will allow Ukraine to join after the war, but will continue to arm Ukraine, and at the same time, in order to avoid overstimulating Russia and avoiding excessive economic pressure, the aid will be mainly based on the elimination of weapons in the country. As for joining the EU, this is less likely than joining NATO, after all, post-war reconstruction requires huge funds, and the EU itself is in a recession, how can it be burdened with such a big burden.
Finally, let's talk about the economic aspect. On the economic front, Russia is of course most concerned about lifting sanctions, but unfortunately the West is unlikely to end sanctions against Russia. Russia is an independent and self-respecting power, it is impossible to give up a powerful nuclear arsenal and military industry, and as long as these two killer weapons are in hand, Europe and the United States will not be able to rest assured of Russia, or will continue to contain Russia, then Russia feels a security threat, can only continue to warm up with China. Therefore, for China and Russia, United States can only suppress at the same time, Trump's "United Russia to resist China", various attempts to break down, it is difficult to succeed, unless one day Russia takes the initiative to abandon nuclear weapons, and then destroy all military industrial enterprises, peace of mind as an "earth gas station".
Of course, all of these assumptions are based on Trump's return to power. However, although Trump's approval rating briefly spiked after the shooting, the latest polls still lag behind Harris. So the United States election is like Schrödinger's cat, and no one dares to pack 100% votes until the end. And if Harris comes to power in the end, it is not good news for China, after all, whether it is "joining forces with Russia to resist China" or "China and Russia fighting together", the ultimate goal is China. Republicans or Democrats are not in dispute over who is the biggest threat to United States. Again, throw away illusions and prepare for war, whether it is on the real battlefield, economic warfare, scientific and technological warfare, or cultural warfare, China must be fully prepared.