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Copywriting丨The Sword of Damocles No. 7
Editor丨Sword of Damocles No. 7
The contradictions between the EU and Hungary are escalating! Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban, after assuming the rotating presidency of the European Union, carried out "peace mission" diplomacy, but did not coordinate his position with the EU and visited Russia and other countries, which angered the EU.
The EU believes that he has violated the principle of loyalty and cooperation, and that his "peace mission" does not talk about Russia's withdrawal of troops and the return of territory, and only calls for Ukraine to cease fire first and then negotiate peace, which is to serve Russia.
The EU not only punished Hungary, but also planned to boycott the conference it hosted.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó criticized the EU for "supporting the war", which made the EU lose face.
As a result, the EU foreign ministers' meeting discussed relevant matters and finally decided to change the venue of the meeting in Hungary and escalate the punishment against Hungary.
After the meeting, Finland Foreign Minister Valtonen even made a statement that Hungary should reconsider whether to stay in the EU, which is the first time that an EU member state has publicly made such remarks, in fact, it speaks the voice of some EU member states, which can be called the ultimate warning to Hungary!
As the conflict between Hungary and the EU intensifies, where does it go from here?
The EU's decision to use the proceeds of Russia's frozen assets for military aid to Ukraine has aroused strong repercussions from all parties.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said the first funds are expected to help Ukraine in early August.
The Russia side expressed strong opposition to this.
Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stressed that the move is a serious violation of international law and said that Russia will study the possibility of judicial prosecution of relevant decision-makers and enforcers.
The G7 is also actively promoting Russia's asset freezing loan program.
The July 24 G7 finance ministers' meeting wanted to push ahead with a $50 billion loan plan, and although the G7 leaders agreed in June, the details have not yet been finalized.
The US side has put forward the idea of completely confiscating Russia's frozen assets, and since most of the assets are in Europe, most European countries are cautious about this.
The new loan scheme does not involve the seizure of assets to avoid EU concerns about destabilizing the financial system, but the details of the loan are much more complicated than expected.
Currently, about 190 billion euros of Russia assets are frozen at Euroclear, which is expected to generate about 3 billion euros in profits per year.
The EU's sanctions against Russia need to be renewed every six months, which raises concerns about the unfreezing of assets, and the US side hopes to get guarantees that Russian assets will be frozen for a long time.
In response, EU member states discussed a proposal to freeze the assets of the Central Bank of Russia indefinitely, in order to provide predictability, as well as an option to extend the frequency of updates on sanctions against Russia.
However, only the former may be approved by the United States.
The general idea is that the share of loans in each country is roughly proportional to GDP, with Europe and the United States each bearing 20 billion yuan, and Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan bearing 10 billion yuan.
If Russian assets are no longer subject to sanctions, countries will need to pay their own share of the funds.
The European Commission is likely to present a formal proposal in late August or early September, but some diplomats are skeptical about progress.
It is worth noting that these actions of the West coincide with the United States elections.
After the incumbent President Biden announced that he would withdraw from the re-election race, the United States government's new plan to aid Ukraine is unlikely.
Still, Biden can ensure the completion of bilateral agreements with Ukraine and provide viable assistance before the end of his term.
And with United States Vice President Kamala Harris likely to succeed Biden as the Democratic nominee, the uncertainty of the election has increased.
As Trump has repeatedly questioned United States' continued assistance to Ukraine, the G7 hopes to maximize aid to Ukraine by the end of the year.
The adoption of the EU programme was a difficult task, and Hungary's attitude was questionable.
In this series of events, tensions between Hungary and the EU have also become increasingly prominent.
The trigger for the incident was Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban's "mission for peace" and his foreign minister's accusations that the EU was supporting the war, which angered the EU.
The EU considers Orban's "peace mission" to be in violation of principles and decisions and has imposed a series of punitive measures on Hungary.
These include the non-attendance of senior officials at EU meetings in Hungary and the boycott of meetings hosted by Hungary by member states.
France even called for Hungary to be stripped of its EU presidency, although the EU did not agree to this approach.
Subsequently, the meeting of foreign ministers of EU member states discussed relevant matters and decided to change the informal summer meeting of EU foreign ministers and defense ministers originally held in Hungary to Brussels, and the host company was also changed from Hungary to the European Commission.
Finland's Foreign Minister Valtonen said Hungary's values are different from those of the EU and that its stay in the EU is worth considering.
In the future, there are questions about whether Orban will be willing to lead Hungary out of the European Union, whether the Hungarian people will agree to withdraw, and if so, whether it will join Russia's led economic organization.
Hungary's relations with the EU have become increasingly strained by Orban's "shuttle diplomacy".
A dispute arose between Hungary and Ukraine over the sanctions imposed by Lukoil, which stopped oil supplies to Hungary and Sri Lanka, and Hungary asked the European Union to intervene.
Hungary's foreign minister warned that Hungary would not approve compensation if Ukraine did not resolve the issue, while the EU said the move would have "no direct impact" on the EU's oil supply security.
The rest of the EU also has their own considerations for the details of the loan program.
The Baltic and Eastern European countries favoured an "indefinite" extension of the freeze, France and Germany favoured a longer but limited extension, and Belgium stressed the need to consider litigation risks and financial market stability.
At the same time, the United States has also taken measures to use Russian assets in the United States to aid Ukraine.
The United States Treasury Department ordered United States banks to report their holdings of Russia assets.
These actions by the EU and the G7 have undoubtedly provoked anger and a strong response from Russia.
Russia considers the actions of the EU to be a flagrant violation of international law and an act of theft.
They accuse the West of trying to benefit from tensions that are unlikely to defeat Russia, either through intimidation on the battlefield or through sanctions.
Russia is likely to take a series of countermeasures, including freezing more EU countries' assets in Russia, which will further increase tensions between the two sides.
In this international turmoil, the interests and positions of all parties are intertwined.
The EU and the G7 are trying to counter Russia's special military operation in Ukraine by using Russia's frozen assets to support Ukraine.
Their actions have not only faced legal and ethical questions, but have also sparked internal divisions and tensions with countries such as Hungary.
And Russia resolutely defends its legitimate rights and interests, expresses strong dissatisfaction with the actions of the West, and is ready to take countermeasures.
The United States election also made the situation more complicated and uncertain.
In the future, the development of this international turmoil is still full of uncertainties, and all parties need to be cautious in handling it to avoid further deterioration of the situation.
The international community has universally called for the settlement of disputes through peace, dialogue and diplomacy to maintain regional and world peace and stability.
After all, wars and sanctions only bring more destruction and suffering, and sustainable solutions can only be found through cooperation and consultation.
For Ukraine, although it may receive some financial and military support, it may also plunge it into a more complex international situation.
For the EU and G7 members, they need to carefully weigh the long-term impact of these actions on their economic, political, and diplomatic relations.
The attitude of countries such as Hungary also suggests that not all member states fully agree with the EU and the G7 approach, and that internal divisions may weaken their ability to act.
In this era of globalization, the actions of any country are no longer isolated and will have an impact on other countries.
All parties should handle international relations in a more responsible and rational manner, respect international law and norms, abandon the zero-sum game mentality, and work together to promote peace and development.
Only through mutual respect, dialogue and cooperation on an equal footing can we achieve a win-win situation and make positive contributions to world peace and prosperity.
Otherwise, this international turmoil caused by the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the G7 on Russia and the aid plan for Ukraine may bring unexpected consequences to all parties and even endanger global stability and development.
This is an outcome that all countries do not want to see, and it is something that we all need to work together to avoid.
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