Key takeaways:
In the first half of this year, there were positive signs in the continuous adjustment of the national real estate market. Among them, the decline in real estate sales data has generally narrowed, which is related to the overall trend of the housing market becoming active.
The decline in the real estate investment index stabilized, and the decline in the new construction index continued to narrow. From January to June, the real estate development investment index stabilized on the basis of the previous decline. At present, the real estate market is in a big wave, and the remaining real estate companies are relatively financially stable real estate companies, so this will also make the real estate development investment indicators enter a new round of healthy development channel. The decline in the area of new housing starts narrowed and was related to the active promotion of financing coordination mechanisms in various places. The decline in the area of housing completions has expanded, mainly due to the contraction of the supply side in recent years.
The decline in the sales index of commercial housing narrowed, and the growth rate of the area for sale decreased. From January to June, the sales index of commercial housing showed a narrowing trend, which also fully shows that with the promotion of the "517 New Deal", the real estate market has stabilized and recovered. Housing prices have risen compared with January to May, the current new home transaction situation has a recovery trend, and the pricing of real estate companies has also begun to stabilize from the past continuous price reduction. Compared with the end of May, the area of the three types of properties for sale at the end of June all decreased, and the destocking work achieved certain results.
The indicators of funds in place for real estate enterprises have improved, and the funding gap still needs to be supplemented. From January to June, the data indicators of the funds in place of real estate enterprises have improved, but it can still be seen that the funding gap still needs to be supplemented. In particular, although the sales market has a recovery trend, the absolute scale is small, which will objectively restrict the financial situation of enterprises.
One
The decline in the real estate investment index stabilized, and the decline in the new construction index continued to narrow
1. The decline in development investment has stabilized
From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 5,252.9 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year. Among them, residential investment was 3,988.3 billion yuan, down 10.4 percent year-on-year. Real estate development investment indicators have stabilized on the basis of the previous decline. At present, the real estate market is in a big wave, and the remaining real estate companies are relatively financially stable real estate companies, so this will also make the real estate development investment indicators enter a new round of healthy development channel. Therefore, this round of adjustment is actually a process of adjusting the market competition pattern, which has a positive effect on the steady development of follow-up development investment.
2. The decline in the area of new housing starts continued to narrow
From January to June, the new construction area of real estate development enterprises was 380.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.7%. Among them, the area of new residential construction was 277.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%. The indicator has a narrowing trend and has a very good orientation. This is also related to the active promotion of local financing coordination mechanisms, and it also shows that after the in-depth adjustment of such indicators, it has entered a relatively virtuous circle of development process.
3. The decline in the area of housing completions has expanded
From January to June, the completed area of real estate development enterprises was 265.19 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%. Among them, the area of residential completions was 192.59 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%. The decline in this indicator has expanded, mainly due to the contraction of the supply side in recent years. After the "517 New Deal", the work on completion is still actively promoted, and the overall work of ensuring the delivery of housing is progressing steadily.
Two
The decline in the sales index of commercial housing narrowed, and the growth rate of the area for sale decreased
1. The decline in the sales area of commercial housing has narrowed
From January to June, the sales area of newly built commercial buildings nationwide was 479.16 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%, of which the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 21.9%. The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 4,713.3 billion yuan, down 25.0 percent year-on-year, of which residential sales fell 26.9 percent year-on-year. The sales index has shown a narrowing trend, which also fully shows that with the promotion of the "517 New Deal", the real estate market has stabilized and recovered. In various places, especially in large cities, market transactions have begun to rise recently, and transactions are generally active, showing a positive trend.
2. The average sales price of commercial housing has increased compared with the previous month
From January to June, the average sales price of commercial housing in China was 9,837 yuan / square meter. This indicator has risen from January to May. At present, there is a recovery trend in the new home transaction situation, and the pricing of real estate companies has also begun to stabilize from continuous price reductions in the past, which will help the performance of housing prices to improve, and at the same time, it will also have a positive effect on the recovery of market confidence.
3. The increase in the area of commercial housing for sale has decreased
At the end of June, the area of commercial housing for sale nationwide was 738.94 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. Among them, the area of residential buildings for sale increased by 23.5%. The growth index of the area of commercial housing for sale has become smaller than that of the previous month, which is related to the recent destocking work. Of course, the follow-up destocking work needs to be actively promoted, especially the reserve of destocking work.
From the perspective of the trend of the area for sale of the three types of properties, the area of residential properties for sale reached the highest point in early 2016, and has been fluctuating downward for more than three years since then, and the area of residential area for sale at the end of 2019 no longer continued to decline, entering a steady upward trend, reaching a historically high level at the end of February this year, and beginning to decline in March. The area of commercial buildings for sale reached a record high in early 2017 and then slowly declined, showing a relatively stable trend overall. The overall area of office buildings for sale showed a steady upward trend, reaching an all-time high at the end of April this year. Compared with the end of May, the area of the three types of properties for sale at the end of June all decreased, and the destocking work achieved certain results.
Three
The indicators of funds in place for real estate enterprises have improved, and the funding gap still needs to be supplemented
From January to June, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5,353.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%. Among them, domestic loans were 820.7 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year; the utilization of foreign capital was 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.7%; self-raised funds were 1,886.2 billion yuan, down 9.1 percent year-on-year; deposits and advance receipts were 1,599.9 billion yuan, down 34.1% year-on-year; personal mortgage loans were 774.9 billion yuan, down 37.7% year-on-year. The data indicators for the availability of funds have improved, but it is still possible to see that the funding gap still needs to be filled. In particular, although the sales market has a recovery trend, the absolute scale is small, which will objectively restrict the financial situation of enterprises.
Four
Trends and strategies
Summarizing the data for the first half of this year, there are positive signs in the continuous adjustment of real estate. First, in terms of supply-side indicators, the overall decline in development investment and new construction indicators has narrowed, which also indicates that the investment capacity of enterprises is in the process of recovery. Second, the sales data performance is positive, which also shows that the inventory rhythm has accelerated under various favorable policies, and market transactions have begun to be active, which has a positive effect on increasing market confidence. Third, the real estate market continues to be in the process of adjustment, but the market attention is increasing, and at the same time, both ends of supply and demand are gradually getting out of the downturn, which has a very good orientation. In particular, similar price indicators have stabilized. (Source: E-House Research Institute)