United Kingdom Clarkson recently released a summary and outlook of the newbuilding market, the global newbuilding market is very active in the first half of 2024, and the scarcity of shipyard space and the expansion of shipbuilding capacity have become hot topics in the current newbuilding market. According to the statistics of the number of newly signed orders, the pace of receiving orders so far this year has remained the same as last year. However, from the perspective of physical feeling, the pace of shipyard signing has accelerated, and the intention of orders has increased; More small and medium-sized shipyards began to take orders, and the customer base also sank from the head shipowner to more small and medium-sized shipowners.
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Newship prices – high upside
The Clarkson study recorded that global shipbuilding capacity bottomed out in 2020, down about 35% from its peak in 2010. While global shipbuilding capacity is set to rebound, with capacity expected to rebound by 11% at the end of 2023 compared to the end of 2020, shipyard space remains tight and some large shipyards are starting to sell 2028/29 slots. In this context, the high price of new shipbuilding continues to rise. As of the end of June, Clarkson's newbuilding price index recorded 187, up 5% from the beginning of the year. In nominal terms, prices are close to the same level as in 2008, just 2% short of their peak. Under our shipyard capacity supply and newbuilding order demand model, Clarkson expects newbuilding prices to remain high.
New Boat Events – In full swing
According to Clarkson's research statistics, in the first half of 2024, global new ship orders will be the same as the same period last year, maintaining a very good signing rhythm. Considering the significant increase in the number of orders signed in June, more orders will be updated retrospectively in July. In terms of ship types, oil tanker newbuilding orders continue to heat up, LNG carrier orders remain strong driven by batch project investment, and investment interest in small and medium-sized LPG carriers and other gas carriers increases, benefiting from the hot freight market, and the pace of container ship fleet replacement is accelerating. Bulk carrier orders are slightly lower than expected, but we expect more orders from Japan shipyards to be delayed in the future.
Alternative fuels – sustainable development
With the successive advancement and entry into force of environmental regulations, the investment in orders for alternative fuel-powered ships continues. According to Clarkson Research, new ship orders for alternative fuel ships in the first half of 2024 accounted for 44% of all new ship orders in terms of revised gross tonnage in the same period. At present, LNG is still the most widely used alternative fuel type, and the proportion of LNG and methanol applications in newly signed orders has increased again. Shipowners' concerns about the supply and price of green methanol fuel, and the interest in methanol-powered ship orders has cooled compared to 2023. In addition, more shipowners are opting for alternative fuel reservations for the flexibility of future developments.
Chinese shipyards – competitiveness in an all-round way
According to Clarkson Research statistics, in the first half of 2024, the global proportion of new ship orders from Chinese shipyards will exceed 60% for the first time, ranking first in the world for the sixth consecutive year. The competitiveness of Chinese shipyards in the oil tanker field has been further enhanced, with a total of 231 new ship orders worth 20.04 million dwt, accounting for more than 70% of the global total. Continued to dominate bulk carrier orders, with a total of 174 ships worth 15.39 million dwt, accounting for more than 90% of the global total. Maintaining the leading position in container ships, container ship orders have rebounded to 61 ships or 430,000 TEU, accounting for 96% of the global total; The competitiveness in the field of gas carriers has been enhanced, with Q-Max LNG carriers and more shipyards developing the LPG ship market, and orders for gas carriers reaching 43 ships worth 6.28 million cubic meters, accounting for nearly 40% of the global market for the first time. Chinese shipyards also lead car carrier orders, receiving 26 of the world's 30 car carrier orders; In addition, since 2020, the overseas market share of Chinese shipyards has gradually increased, and the share of orders from domestic shipowners has dropped to 24%.
Chinese shipowners – focus on structural changes
According to Clarkson Research statistics, in the first half of 2024, the new ship orders of Chinese shipowners will be relatively stable, accounting for 14% of the global total. Chinese shipowners continue to lead the global investment in bulk carriers, accounting for 30% of the total investment, of which about 33% are ordered by domestic leasing companies. Gas carrier investment retreated to the third place, accounting for 17% of the world's total, lower than the investment of Qatar and Greece shipowners; Oil tanker investment ranks third in the world, less than half of the investment of Greece shipowners, and slightly lower than the investment of Norway shipowners; The investment in container ships fell by 59%, accounting for only 3% of the global total. Among the global shipowner investment, Greece has become the largest investor in the global newbuilding market for the second consecutive year, and since this year, Greece shipowners' investment in energy ship types has been very eye-catching.
It is worth noting that after maintaining the world's leading investment in new ships for many years, there have also been more changes in the types of structures of Chinese shipowners, and Clarkson Research will soon release a report on Chinese shipowners.
In view of the new development trends of advanced technology process application, process change, equipment update, computer-aided technology, industrial robots, AI technology, ChatGPT, digital twins, green and low-carbon and digital integration, big data, cloud computing, network security, business collaboration and other advanced technologies such as intelligent and efficient shipbuilding, advanced welding, painting, and final assembly at home and abroad, on the basis of a series of high-end professional summits and forums successfully held at home and abroad, advanced shipbuilding welding, The Shanghai Forum on Painting and Assembly and the 2024 Shanghai Forum on Intelligent Digital Shipbuilding and Advanced Technology and the 2024 Shanghai Forum on the Development and Application of Industrial Robots will be held in Shanghai on August 6-7. Conference Consultation Registration: [email protected] or [email protected].
