Sima Pingbang: Trump threw an olive branch to Russia, and Lavrov arrived in New York, United States, overnight

Lavrov arrived in New York, United States

Trump has been in a good position lately, having locked in the Republican presidential nomination, and the United States court has rejected the Trump secret case case, if nothing else, if he wins Biden in the campaign debate, Trump will start his next term.

But in relations with China and Russia, the Trump administration's policies may change. The first is that according to Vance, Trump's nominee for vice president, the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be prioritized and will focus on dealing with China, which can be said to be undisguised. At present, Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been flying by plane for 12 hours and arrived in New York, United States.

You know, for United States, there is a discontinuity in its policies, such as the reversal of a series of policies by the previous president, Barack Obama, during Trump's first term. The first was the withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, and the Trump administration took a number of steps to weaken Obamacare, including eliminating mandatory fines for individual liability sharing clauses in health insurance. The Trump administration also withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iran nuclear issue and reimposed economic sanctions on Iran. More importantly, Trump officially announced United States' withdrawal from the TPP talks, an important trade deal backed by the Obama administration. It can be said that the policies of the previous government fell short.

After Trump stepped down, Biden took office and reversed a series of Trump's policies, such as United States' rejoining the Paris climate agreement, which was an executive order signed by Biden on the first day of his inauguration. In response to Trump's weakened Obamacare policy, Biden has taken the opposite step and taken action to strengthen and expand Obamacare, including by increasing subsidies to lower insurance premiums and trying to expand coverage. It has also reversed or modified some of the Trump-era immigration policies, including the lifting of the travel ban and the reinstatement of the DACA program. After Trump said he would withdraw from the WHO, Biden announced that United States would rejoin the WHO. It can be said that every time the United States administration takes office, it adjusts the policies of its predecessors, and the magnitude is very large.

In terms of relations between China and Russia, the Republicans and Democrats of United States are different, or have some emphasis. For example, for Russia, the Democratic Party believes that it should unite forces that can be united, squeeze Russia's living space through NATO's continuous eastward expansion, and at the same time provoke China on the South China Sea issue and China's peripheral strategy, win over allies in the same way, and create bloc confrontation in the form of Cold War mentality. It can be seen that Biden's thinking is still stuck in the Cold War period.

And Trump and Biden are completely different. It is also true that, as Trump himself said, did not wage a single foreign war. However, Biden has repeatedly provoked conflicts with foreign countries, such as multiple air strikes on Syria, strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, and taking sides on the Russia-Ukraine issue and the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and continuing to assist Israel and Ukraine, which has exacerbated the risk of conflict spillover, ignoring the international community's desire for peace, and United States has also attracted many criticisms.

Trump, on the other hand, did not cause a single war during his term in office. However, this does not mean that Trump will necessarily have friendly relations with China and Russia, and Trump's strategy is "United States first", and everything he does is to make United States the most powerful country in the world. Although at the military level, Trump lacks Biden's aggressive adventurism, but economically and politically, Trump still has his own style of play. We should also pay attention to this point.

Trump himself has a close personal relationship with Putin, and even before he took office, he said that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be ended within a day, and Russia presidential spokesman Peskov also said that US-Russian relations have not yet seen signs of improvement, but I believe that this day will come sooner or later, and in Putin's words before, Russia hopes to "become partners" with the West, but now the situation has become like this, completely because the West does not care about Russia's interests. It can be seen that Russia is already expecting United States to begin accepting itself.

Recently Trump also threw an olive branch to Russia, according to him, in the event of re-election United States president, plans to first resolve the Ukraine crisis through negotiations with Moscow and Kiev, and then shift the focus to dealing with China. Trump's Republican vice presidential partner, Vance, also said that China is the "biggest threat" facing United States, and that it needs to be confronted and addressed, not ignored. Vance proposed a scenario in which Trump could negotiate with Moscow and Kiev to quickly end the current conflict in Ukraine, giving United States more resources to confront China. He criticized the United States government for concentrating on other issues and not directly addressing the issue of relations with China.

It can be seen that on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US side is eager to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, so it is very likely that it will reach a consensus with the Russian side on the Russia-Ukraine issue as soon as possible, that is, the US side will also consider the conditions of the Russian side. Just after the US side threw an olive branch to Russia, Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also took a plane and flew for 12 hours to arrive in New York, United States, United States did not stop the whole process.

Lavrov's arrival in New York will be the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council to take the lead in discussing how to build a more equitable, just and sustainable global order through the joint efforts of all countries. During this trip, Lavrov also plans to meet with leaders of other countries individually, mainly to discuss the most important international affairs and regional issues of the moment, such as tensions in the Middle East and the Gaza Strip, and the crisis in Ukraine.

In fact, we do not need to rush to conclusions about whether Russian-US relations will improve, and whether Trump will be unfavorable to China after taking office, because if we want to change the current situation, Trump alone, or Trump and Vance alone, may not be able to change much in the overall grand strategy.

First, if Trump is re-elected president of United States, he will strongly support Israel and take tough measures against Iran, which could lead to renewed tensions in the Middle East. And Trump's claim that he can end the Russian-Ukrainian war in one day is likely to just want to unilaterally stop aid to Ukraine and "stop losses in time." Even if Trump personally wants to achieve a truce, he will have to consider other influencing factors. For example, the United States Congress (including within the Republican Party), the military-industrial complex, NATO, and the European Union are all organizations with significant influence, and the relationship between them is complex and cannot be easily changed by a single person. It should also be remembered that during Trump's last term, he was the subject of a three-year impeachment inquiry, so it is still too optimistic to think that Trump can simply and quickly resolve Russia and Ukraine.

We also have our own ways of dealing with US-Russia relations and China's independent foreign policy. The relations between China and Russia will not be damaged because of the improvement of the United States and Russia, nor will the normal cooperation and exchanges between China and Russia be affected because of the United States.

With regard to China-US relations, China also has the same position, that is, it hopes that the US side will come to the normal track of mutual benefit and win-win cooperation with China, and will not do anything that harms China's interests on China's core issues, let alone create small circles and create confrontation around China. However, it can be expected that after Trump takes office, it is likely that he will once again set off a round of disputes similar to a trade war with China, and we must also be prepared for this. The policy of "United States First" is actually not only China, but even United States' allies are also suffering, so Trump's rise to power, the first thing to worry about is not us, but those United States allies who do not want to share more military spending.

(The author is a special researcher of Kunlun Ce Research Institute; Source: Kunlun Ce Network [Author's Authorization], transcribed from the WeChat public account of "Sima Pingbang Said", with deletion and revision, revision and release; The picture comes from the Internet, invaded and deleted)