Japanese media: Under export control, 40% of the sales of the two major chip manufacturing equipment companies in the United States rely on Chinese mainland

Observer.com

2024-07-15 18:58Posted on the official account of Shanghai Observer.com

[Text/Observer.com Yang Rong]

"Despite United States efforts to build supply chains at home, United States chip-making equipment manufacturers are becoming more dependent on Chinese mainland, the largest market." Nikkei Asian Review reported on July 13. According to the data, the Chinese mainland market supports more than 40% of the sales of United States two representative chip manufacturing equipment manufacturers.

Specifically, from February to April this year, the Chinese mainland market accounted for 43% of the sales of United States chip manufacturing equipment giant Applied Materials, an increase of 22 percentage points from the same period last year. From January to March, the Chinese mainland market accounted for 42 percent of the sales of Lam Research, another United States chip-making equipment maker, up 20 percentage points year-on-year.

"This seems to be contrary to Washington's plan to restrict exports to China," the report said. The report pointed out that the growth of the above-mentioned companies' sales in the Chinese mainland market mainly came from mature process chip manufacturing equipment. A senior executive at a major equipment manufacturer said that if the United States government does not impose restrictions on exports to China, the proportion of United States chip-making equipment companies in Chinese mainland will be higher.

United States Applied Materials (data map) Nikkei Asian Review

According to the latest forecast released by the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) last week, global chip manufacturing equipment sales are expected to grow by 3.4% to $109 billion in 2024. Among them, equipment shipments in the Chinese mainland market are expected to exceed 35 billion US dollars, accounting for more than 30%, becoming the largest market driving demand growth.

Looking ahead to 2025, SEMI expects the global chip manufacturing equipment market to grow further to $113 billion. From the perspective of regional data, Chinese mainland, Taiwan and Korea will still be the top three destinations for equipment spending in this field in 2025.

In order to suppress China's semiconductor industry, in the second half of 2022, the United States government introduced the "Chips and Science Act" and updated the "Export Administration Regulations" in the form of "temporary rules" to block the development space of China's semiconductor-related emerging technology industries from both semiconductor manufacturing and export.

In October 2023, the United States government issued a final rule on semiconductor export controls to China, further tightening export restrictions on artificial intelligence (AI)-related chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China on the basis of the "Interim Rule", and adding a number of Chinese entities to the "entity list" of export controls.

Recently, the United States has further pressured its allies to impose more restrictions on China's semiconductor industry. Bloomberg reported on June 19 that United States Deputy Secretary of Commerce for the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), Estevez, plans to visit Netherlands and Japan after the new Netherlands cabinet was sworn in in early July, asking for further restrictions on after-sales maintenance services provided by ASML and Tokyo Electron, two large semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturers, in Chinese mainland.

United States officials are also reportedly urging Japanese companies to limit exports to China of some high-end chemicals used in chip production, and Germany optical companies to stop exporting key components to China. However, according to people familiar with the matter, Japan and Netherlands are "resisting" these additional measures, hoping to have more time to assess the impact of the export ban, and the Germany government has not clearly expressed support for the US proposal.

It is worth mentioning that in May, the Mobile World Live website of the Global Mobile Communications Association combed the revenue data of the world's four major chip equipment manufacturers Netherlands ASML, Japan Tokyo Weili Kechuang and United States applied materials and Lam Research Group, and found that although the specific sales of these four giants are different, their export sales of chip manufacturing equipment to China have increased significantly recently.

"Nikkei Asian Review" analyzed on the 13th that the increase in exports of non-advanced process chip manufacturing equipment to China has brought "risks" to United States, because the supply of any type of product will contribute to the development of China's domestic chip industry. The report pointed out that the Chinese government has formulated a national policy to establish its own chip supply chain, which may create strong competition for United States equipment manufacturers in the long run.

In fact, former ASML CEO Peter · Wennink has pointed out more than once that the more the United States puts pressure on China, the more likely China is to "redouble its efforts" to independently manufacture high-end lithography equipment that can rival ASML. Christoph · Fouquet, ASML's new president and CEO, who took office in late April, also said in an exclusive interview this month: "It's pointless to stop others from producing what they need." ”

Ash·wath Rao, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told Mobile World Live that China is increasing its investment in mature chip manufacturing processes, and in the face of United States's blockade of cutting-edge chip manufacturing equipment, China is promoting the application innovation of deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, achieving breakthroughs in 7nm and 5nm process nodes through multiple lithography technologies.

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