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This year's real estate prices make everyone very worried, and they are afraid of unfinished buildings when they buy houses, and they are worried that they will not have money to buy houses in the future if they don't buy houses. In this regard, entrepreneur Cao Dewang made a bold prediction! So, if you don't buy a house this year, will you regret it in 5 years?
Cao Dewang's prophecy
In fact, on the question of "whether to buy a house", mainland entrepreneur Cao Dewang has already expressed his views in 2022. He said at the 14th China Automobile Blue Book Forum: He himself will not engage in real estate! Many people are very puzzled by this, is a dignified chairman of Fu Glass Group not capable of engaging in real estate?
With Cao Dewang's financial resources, he is naturally qualified to engage in real estate, but there is a reason why he does not get involved. First: he feels that if he wants to revitalize real estate, he depends on the opportunity, and if he does not seize this opportunity, he will lose the opportunity. Second: he thinks he has to be familiar with real estate to do real estate! The implication of his words is that he himself wants to do it, but he doesn't have the ability and doesn't seize the opportunity, so he doesn't do it.
We can reverse Cao Dewang's words, who has this opportunity? Who has this ability? The answer is clear at a glance, it is the rich, which also means that real estate is the exclusive game for the wealthy. If it is a person who has no capital, Cao Dewang means to give up the decision to buy a house, and sell it as soon as possible if he has a house.
With the continuous advancement of urbanization and the transformation of population structure, the future of real estate will inevitably have an oversupply situation, and the ability to maintain and increase the value of the house will be much worse than before. Although Cao Dewang's opinion has been given, everyone is still undecided.
In the past, real estate prices were inflated, but now they are slightly lower, although local governments have implemented many favorable policies to rescue the market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and loan restrictions and providing housing purchase subsidies, but this does not make everyone unswervingly willing to buy houses. For people who want to buy a house, compared with the current house price and the past house price, the current house price is definitely the lowest, but they think it will be lower in the future.
If they don't buy a house in 2024, if the future policy is favorable and leads to a rebound in housing prices, then they will lose money. After all, today's real estate has entered a period of adjustment, and no one can say what the future housing prices will be. Whether to buy a house now or 5 years from now is a dilemma. After all, no one wants the value of real estate to shrink significantly, and if you want to regret it, you will have to bear a huge loss.
What is the real estate situation like today? Will there really be an oversupply in the future?
Today's real estate is in a downturn
In 2023, Huayuan Real Estate, a veteran state-owned enterprise, officially announced its withdrawal from the real estate development business in April, and their fiasco is also a microcosm of the decline of the real estate industry. In fact, their defeat began three years ago, and they have lost more than 6 billion yuan in the past three years, no matter how much they made money before, they can't survive now.
The moment they announced their withdrawal, their relevant assets and liabilities had been transferred to the controlling shareholder, Huayuan Group. In addition to this company, the real estate situation in Foshan is not optimistic. In 2023, Foshan's actual growth rate in the first quarter is 1.1%, which also shows that the real estate industry is really in recession.
In the first half of this year, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 2,083.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.6%! And the once prosperous tens of billions of real estate companies are now only 44, the original 78, this comparison data is still quite miserable. According to the official data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are currently 660 million houses in China!
In other words, there is already a situation of oversupply of real estate in mainland China, not to mention the future real estate situation! The imbalance between supply and demand, which is a factor in the reduction of real estate prices, is also the reason why real estate has become a sunset industry. Of course, there are many factors for the decline of the real estate industry, in addition to the imbalance between supply and demand, there are also human factors, such as the negative impact of self-media.
Many professional analysts will make predictions on the Internet about the decline in house prices, and they unanimously believe that the future of real estate is not optimistic, and it will be a market bubble. They predict that it will affect everyone's demand for home purchases, and users do not trust the real estate market, which will inevitably collapse gradually. In fact, the recession of the real estate market will have a knock-on effect, such as furniture suppliers, building materials suppliers, etc.
Their orders will gradually decrease, and they will go through a series of price wars along the way, and most of them will end up going out of business. If the real estate industry fails, it will actually affect the financial industry, and the first thing is to increase the risk of bad debts of banks. Of course, it will also affect the national economy, and in short, everyone is not happy. In the face of this dilemma, real estate companies must transform if they want to survive.
For example, Huayuan Real Estate has transformed into a "service provider" and a "charter company", and they have effectively shifted the focus of their business, so that new profit growth points will naturally be recycled. Real estate companies that have not yet collapsed can now make layouts and transfer their business to asset operation and property management, so that they can develop safely and stably.
Of course, the big hand of the country will not sit idly by, and the country will inevitably introduce more effective policies in the future, and finally let the real estate industry be in a healthy and stable state of development. In short, the proportion of the real estate economy in the real economy has begun to decline gradually, and investors can not only focus on this aspect, but also develop high-tech industries represented by new energy vehicles.
Young people have a new definition of real estate
Last year, Kunshan Jiabao Wangshang Real Estate Co., Ltd. and Kunshan Changtai Real Estate Co., Ltd. significantly reduced their sales, and the Suzhou Kunshan Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau punished them for "disrupting the normal order of the market". After that, the two companies need to close the online sign, and at the same time, they will not be allowed to open it until the rectification is completed. Therefore, blindly reducing prices is also a violation of the rule of "clear price marking", and many netizens feel that these two real estate companies are very innocent.
But to be honest, even if the housing prices are low now, many young people do not plan to buy a house. A netizen also posted a post on the Internet to persuade young people to buy a house, and he felt that it was not cost-effective to empty his family's six wallets to buy a house. According to relevant home purchase data, more than half of young people currently buy houses to settle in a certain city.
More than 30.5% of young people buy houses for retirement, and the rest buy houses for marriage, childbirth, and children's education. From the perspective of gender, women regard buying a house as a pension security, so the number of women buying houses is higher than that of men, which is 18.9% higher! Men are more likely to buy houses for marriage, but less than 40 percent of them are men.
In general, the mortgage is a burden for most young people nowadays, and they are not willing to lower their living standards to buy a house. And now renting is more cost-effective than buying, and many people would rather rent for the rest of their lives than buy a house. The current job market is not good, the cost of living is also high, coupled with the cost of education, medical care and pension expenses, in general, everyone is very poor and cannot afford to buy a house.
Young people are held hostage by so much cost that they are reluctant to buy a house for marriage, and for this reason they prefer not to get married. Cao Dewang's prophecy has a certain truth, if you don't have money, you can sell your house quickly to ensure that your living standard does not decline, and it doesn't matter if you have money. However, whether to buy a house or not depends on personal needs, and of course there are benefits to buying a house, such as being able to achieve the purpose of settling down, allowing children to enjoy local education and medical resources, and so on.
The house is a fixed asset, and no one can say what the future situation will be, but it is not ruled out that the possibility of housing prices will rise, which also shows that there is still room for value preservation. As for not buying a house this year, whether you will regret it in 5 years, this is a matter of opinion!
Reference source 1: Xiao Gang: Reduce the proportion of real estate in the allocation of financial resources and free up more resources to support advanced manufacturing
Reference source 2: Qianjiang Evening News spent all his savings at the age of 30 and had a debt of 2 million! Do young people still want to buy a house?
Information source 3: China.com "Only forty percent of men buy houses for marriage", do young people still need to buy a house?
Information source 4: Chinese government website The deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics asked a reporter about the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2023
Information source 5: The Paper Cao Dewang talks about real estate again: people who understand should be allowed to do it, and it is wise to sell the house as soon as possible
Information source 6: The Paper The start is not smooth, how to find a way to break the situation in Foshan, the fourth city of China's industry
Information source 7: Shanxi Evening News Another well-known veteran real estate company announced that it will withdraw from the real estate development business!
Information source 8: Beijing News Agency: In the first half of the year, the price of second-hand housing in Baicheng fell by 3.16%, and the price of new housing rose slightly