A few days ago, Soe Win, the No. 2 figure in the Burmese military junta, arrived in China for an official visit. According to Myanmar officials, Soe Win's visit was mainly to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Green Development Forum hosted by China, which was the first foreign visit by Soe Win since the Burmese military junta seized power. It is worth noting, however, that Soe Win's visit to China comes at a time when the Burmese military and the civilian armed forces are at odds in Shan State.
[Soe Win, the No. 2 person in the Myanmar junta, visited China]
About a week ago, after Myanmar reversed a China-brokered peace agreement and fierce fighting broke out in northern Shan State, the Kokang Allied Army and the De'ang Army accused Min Aung Hlaing's government of maliciously breaking the peace treaty and launching an attack on Shan State, sending drones to attack its territory several times, resulting in several civilian casualties.
The conflict between the two sides is still expanding, with more than 30 junta strongholds, as well as the towns of Kyaukmei, Noengecchio, and most of Mandalay Mogok, almost all occupied by civilian forces; Recently, Tabun Kyaw, a general of the De'ang National Liberation Army (NAPLA) of the Northern Burmese People's Liberation Army, said that Myanmar's ethnic minority soldiers were besieging Lashio in Shan State, an area where the junta's Northeast Command is located.
For today's Burmese junta, the situation can be described as extremely bad. Because in addition to the fighting in Shan State, the Burmese junta in Rakhine State in the west is also in serious trouble.
[The Arakan Army claims to have taken control of major cities in northwestern Myanmar]
Since the end of last year, the Arakan Army has launched a series of offensives against the junta, capturing most of the Burmese junta's strongholds in the northwest in a short period of time; In this case, it would be a nightmare for the junta to restart the conflict on a new front. To make matters worse, the current Mindi Armed Forces, dominated by the Kokang Three Brothers Alliance, are no longer confined to northern Shan State, but have expanded to the Mandalay region, posing a threat to Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city, and the junta garrison city of Pyin-Oo Lwin, which houses the junta's National Defense Service Academy.
It can be said that once these two important strongholds completely fall into the hands of the civilian forces, the territory of the Burmese military junta will be seriously "reduced", and it cannot be ruled out that other civilian and military forces will take advantage of the situation, and the possibility of Min Aung Hlaing's regime being forcibly overthrown is increasing.
Not long ago, former Burmese President Thein Sein visited China, perhaps at the behest of Min Aung Hlaing, hoping to persuade China to intervene in the situation in Myanmar and force the Three Brothers Alliance to cease its current military activities in northern Shan State. The reason for this speculation is that Thein Sein came to Beijing on a plane from the Burmese Air Force, and before his departure and after returning from Beijing, he was personally greeted by the Burmese Navy Admiral and other senior Burmese officials.
[Former President of Myanmar Thein Sein met with Wang Yi]
The reason why Min Aung Hlaing chose Thein Sein to intercede is because Thein Sein has friendly relations with China, visited China during his tenure, and reached a lot of cooperation with the Chinese side. On the other hand, Min Aung Hlaing wants to use Thein Sein to show the "inclusiveness" and "reform" of his regime, after all, Thein Sein is the former president of Myanmar, and his ability to intercede for Min Aung Hlaing himself is a certain recognition of Min Aung Hlaing's regime.
It is worth mentioning that during his tenure, Thein Sein unilaterally halted the Myitsone Hydropower Station cooperation project between the two countries, resulting in large losses for the Chinese company, so the evaluation of Thein Sein within the Chinese side is mixed; Moreover, Thein Sein has no specific official position within the Burmese military junta and cannot directly make decisions on behalf of Myanmar, so it is not surprising that the result will not be successful.
Against this backdrop, Soe Win, as the "second-in-command" of the Myanmar military, undoubtedly wanted to take advantage of the "residual heat" of Thein Sein's visit to China to continue to lobby the Chinese side to stop the actions of the civilian forces.
At present, the expanding conflict in Myanmar does pose a direct threat to the interests of the mainland:
[Lashio residents evacuate in the basement]
On the one hand, Lashio is one of the important nodes connecting Myanmar's Mandalay Province to the mainland, which means that once Lashio is lost, the main passage between China and Myanmar will be cut off, and the conflict between the civilian and military junta may continue to spread along this line, and the possibility of the mainland border being disturbed by artillery fire will increase sharply. What's more, the United States and other external forces are also eyeing the mainland, and it is not impossible to use this gap to infiltrate the mainland;
On the other hand, Lashio is also one of the cities along China's Belt and Road Initiative, and if it falls into the hands of the civilian army, the mainland's "Belt and Road" layout in the region will inevitably stagnate, which is not in line with the actual interests of the mainland
Therefore, in general, China hopes that Myanmar can maintain peace, but it should be noted that this does not mean that China will send troops to intervene in the civil war in Myanmar, and China has always advocated peace negotiations. Therefore, the Chinese side is very clear about Soe Win's visit, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China is ready to provide support for the peace talks again, and urged all relevant parties in Myanmar to exercise maximum restraint.
In fact, facilitating peace talks in Myanmar is not an easy task, and there are many issues that China has to solve at present, such as how to rebuild the trust of Mindiwu in Min Aung Hlaing's regime. Will this peace talks become another "intermission" between the two sides? Wait. This also means that the peace talks will definitely take a lot of time, and China is not a party to the conflict or party to the civil war in Myanmar after all, and if the two sides do not effectively restrain their behavior, it will be difficult to solve the problem fundamentally even if China intervenes.
All in all, China's sincerity in promoting peace talks has always been there, and whether the situation in Myanmar can stabilize in the future depends on the attitude of all parties in Myanmar.